Intuitive Machines Stock Drops After NASA Contract Awards
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 3 days ago
0mins
Source: Fool
- Stock Volatility: Intuitive Machines closed at $34.86, down 17.43% on Tuesday, primarily due to NASA awarding key Lunar Terrain Vehicle contracts to competitors, raising investor concerns about future growth and backlog visibility.
- Surge in Trading Volume: The company saw a trading volume of 47.3 million shares, approximately 231% above its three-month average of 14.3 million shares, indicating heightened market interest in its stock fluctuations.
- Financial Performance: Despite reporting record first-quarter revenue of $186.7 million and positive adjusted EBITDA of $2.7 million, the loss of the LTV contract dampened investor optimism about future prospects.
- Market Outlook: Intuitive Machines maintains a backlog of about $1.1 billion and has confirmed its revenue outlook for 2026, with investors closely watching whether this backlog converts into revenue and if the company secures additional NASA or commercial contracts.
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Analyst Views on LUNR
Wall Street analysts forecast LUNR stock price to fall
10 Analyst Rating
8 Buy
1 Hold
1 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 45.700
Low
9.50
Averages
17.74
High
25.00
Current: 45.700
Low
9.50
Averages
17.74
High
25.00
About LUNR
Intuitive Machines, Inc. is a space technology, infrastructure, and services company. It is a provider and supplier of space products and services that enable sustained robotic and human exploration to the Moon, Mars, and beyond. Its services include delivery services, data transmission services, and infrastructure as a service. Its delivery services provide transportation and delivery of payloads, such as satellites, scientific instruments and cargo to various destinations in space, in addition to rideshare delivery and lunar surface access. Its data transmission services offerings include the collection, processing, and interpretation of space-based data, utilizing applications, such as command, control, communications, reconnaissance and prospecting. Its infrastructure as a service delivers space assets, performing tasks and making decisions without human intervention that are designed to perform essential functions, such as navigation, scientific data collection, and others.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
NASA's Decisions Impact Intuitive Machines' Lunar Plans
- NASA Contract Delays: NASA's contract decisions could delay Intuitive Machines' lunar vehicle plans; however, the firm remains optimistic about long-term opportunities in moon exploration, indicating sustained market confidence in future projects.
- Stock Rebound: Despite being excluded from the first phase of NASA's Lunar Terrain Vehicle program, Intuitive Machines' stock surged 15% on Wednesday, reflecting investor confidence in the company's future potential, especially after Roth Capital raised its price target to $75.
- Analyst Optimism: Roth Capital believes Intuitive Machines still has strong opportunities in future NASA moon programs, including landers and other infrastructure services, although recent contract selections pose challenges to its timeline.
- Investor Sentiment Recovery: Although NASA's decision initially triggered a sharp decline in LUNR shares, investors quickly shifted focus to the company's existing business pipeline, leading to a rapid recovery in stock price, demonstrating market confidence in its long-term growth.
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- Competitive Landscape Shift: The explosion of Blue Origin's New Glenn rocket at Cape Canaveral, while not directly impacting Intuitive, could reduce competition in the lunar lander market, potentially benefiting Intuitive in the long run.
- Rising Launch Cost Risks: The loss of Blue Origin's launch capacity may lead to increased launch prices across the industry, which could adversely affect Intuitive Machines as it relies on other launch providers, impacting its profitability.
- Cautious Investor Sentiment: Despite a 300% increase in Intuitive Machines' stock over the past year, the market's high expectations for its future performance are now under scrutiny, as Blue Origin's accident serves as a reminder of the inherent risks in the space sector, urging investors to carefully assess their risk tolerance.
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- Stock Price Fluctuation: Intuitive Machines' stock tumbled 7.3% following the explosion; although the company does not rely on Blue Origin for satellite launches, concerns over potential future launch costs may have exacerbated investor sentiment, reflecting heightened sensitivity to risks in the space sector.
- Market Competition Dynamics: While Intuitive Machines competes with Blue Origin, the latter's accident may reduce competition, potentially providing Intuitive with market opportunities, especially in the lunar lander sector; however, the loss of Blue Origin's launch capacity could lead to increased launch prices across the industry.
- Investor Risk Assessment: Intuitive Machines' stock has surged 300% over the past year, but given the high expectations for its future performance, investors need to carefully assess risks, particularly in light of increasing uncertainties in the space industry, with analysts suggesting a focus on other potentially more rewarding investment options.
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- Executive Team Enhancement: On May 7, 2026, the company appointed two senior leaders from Blue Origin, responsible for space operations and STARLAUNCH operations, which boosts the team's expertise and execution capability, thereby increasing market confidence.
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NASA's Decisions Impact Intuitive Machines' Lunar Plans
- NASA Contract Delays: NASA's contract decisions could delay Intuitive Machines' lunar vehicle plans; however, the firm remains optimistic about long-term opportunities in moon exploration, indicating sustained market confidence in future projects.
- Stock Rebound: Despite being excluded from the first phase of NASA's Lunar Terrain Vehicle program, Intuitive Machines' stock surged 15% on Wednesday, reflecting investor confidence in the company's future potential, especially after Roth Capital raised its price target to $75.
- Analyst Optimism: Roth Capital believes Intuitive Machines still has strong opportunities in future NASA moon programs, including landers and other infrastructure services, although recent contract selections pose challenges to its timeline.
- Investor Sentiment Recovery: Although NASA's decision initially triggered a sharp decline in LUNR shares, investors quickly shifted focus to the company's existing business pipeline, leading to a rapid recovery in stock price, demonstrating market confidence in its long-term growth.
See More
Blue Origin Rocket Explosion Impacts Intuitive Machines Stock
- Stock Price Decline: Intuitive Machines' stock fell 7.3% by 12:15 p.m. ET today, despite no negative news about the company, indicating market concerns about the overall sentiment in the space industry.
- Competitive Landscape Shift: The explosion of Blue Origin's New Glenn rocket at Cape Canaveral, while not directly impacting Intuitive, could reduce competition in the lunar lander market, potentially benefiting Intuitive in the long run.
- Rising Launch Cost Risks: The loss of Blue Origin's launch capacity may lead to increased launch prices across the industry, which could adversely affect Intuitive Machines as it relies on other launch providers, impacting its profitability.
- Cautious Investor Sentiment: Despite a 300% increase in Intuitive Machines' stock over the past year, the market's high expectations for its future performance are now under scrutiny, as Blue Origin's accident serves as a reminder of the inherent risks in the space sector, urging investors to carefully assess their risk tolerance.
See More
Blue Origin Rocket Explosion Affects Competitor Intuitive Machines' Stock
- Rocket Explosion Incident: A Blue Origin New Glenn rocket exploded on the launch pad in Florida, with initial reports indicating severe damage to the LC-36A launch complex, which could lead to diminished market confidence in Blue Origin and indirectly affect the competitive landscape for its rivals.
- Stock Price Fluctuation: Intuitive Machines' stock tumbled 7.3% following the explosion; although the company does not rely on Blue Origin for satellite launches, concerns over potential future launch costs may have exacerbated investor sentiment, reflecting heightened sensitivity to risks in the space sector.
- Market Competition Dynamics: While Intuitive Machines competes with Blue Origin, the latter's accident may reduce competition, potentially providing Intuitive with market opportunities, especially in the lunar lander sector; however, the loss of Blue Origin's launch capacity could lead to increased launch prices across the industry.
- Investor Risk Assessment: Intuitive Machines' stock has surged 300% over the past year, but given the high expectations for its future performance, investors need to carefully assess risks, particularly in light of increasing uncertainties in the space industry, with analysts suggesting a focus on other potentially more rewarding investment options.
See More
Starfighters Space Secures $17.5 Million Investment for STARLAUNCH
- Funding Support: On May 22, 2026, Starfighters Space announced a strategic equity investment of $17.5 million aimed at supporting the continued development of the STARLAUNCH platform and broader commercial space initiatives, with funds allocated for infrastructure development and operational expansion, thereby enhancing the company's competitive position in the market.
- Executive Appointments: The company appointed two senior leaders from Blue Origin, Jose Arias as Vice President of Space Operations and Catrina L. Medeiros as Director of STARLAUNCH Operations, which not only enhances the company's execution capabilities but also provides strong management support for the successful implementation of the STARLAUNCH project.
- Market Outlook: With SpaceX planning to go public on June 12, 2026, targeting up to $75 billion in funding, Starfighters Space is well-positioned to capitalize on this influx of capital, accelerating its commercial development and further solidifying its position in the rapidly growing space economy.
- Technical Progress: Recent milestones for the STARLAUNCH platform include a targeted space demonstration flight timeline over the next 18 to 24 months, which is expected to significantly reduce technical risks and boost market confidence through regulatory approvals and program execution.
See More
Starfighters Space Secures $17.5 Million Investment for STARLAUNCH
- Investment Support: On May 22, 2026, Starfighters Space announced a $17.5 million strategic equity investment aimed at advancing the STARLAUNCH platform and broader commercial space development, reflecting strong endorsement from global institutional investors for its long-term strategy.
- Operational Expansion Plans: The funding is earmarked specifically for operational expansion and infrastructure development, with a targeted timeline for space demonstration flights over the next 18 to 24 months, further enhancing the company's competitiveness in the flexible, high-cadence space access market.
- Executive Team Enhancement: On May 7, 2026, the company appointed two senior leaders from Blue Origin, responsible for space operations and STARLAUNCH operations, which boosts the team's expertise and execution capability, thereby increasing market confidence.
- Optimistic Market Outlook: With SpaceX planning a historic IPO, Starfighters Space's performance in the commercial space sector is increasingly under scrutiny, and it is expected to attract more investor attention due to its potential in flexible launch architecture.
See More
SpaceX Targets IPO Valuation of $1.8 Trillion, Below Expectations
- IPO Valuation Adjustment: SpaceX is targeting an IPO valuation of at least $1.8 trillion, down from earlier expectations exceeding $2 trillion, which may impact investor confidence and lead to stock price volatility.
- Funding Goals: Despite the valuation cut, SpaceX aims to raise up to $75 billion, potentially making it the largest IPO in Wall Street history, indicating strong market recognition of its long-term potential.
- Market Reaction: Following the SpaceX IPO news, stocks of Rocket Lab (RKLB), Redwire (RDW), and Intuitive Machines (LUNR) generally fell in trading, with AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) dropping 11%, reflecting a cautious investor sentiment towards future market conditions.
- Industry Outlook: In its IPO filing, SpaceX outlined a target market of $28.5 trillion, including a $1.6 trillion opportunity from Starlink broadband, indicating significant growth potential for the company in the future space economy.
See More
