Harley-Davidson Q4 2023 Earnings Analysis
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 6 days ago
0mins
Should l Buy HOG?
Source: seekingalpha
- Disappointing Earnings: Harley-Davidson reported a Q4 GAAP EPS of -$2.44, missing estimates by $1.38, indicating significant challenges in profitability that could undermine investor confidence.
- Significant Revenue Decline: The company's revenue for Q4 was $496 million, down 27.9% year-over-year, although it beat expectations by $16.17 million, this substantial drop reflects weak market demand, potentially necessitating a reevaluation of sales strategies.
- Sales Data Fluctuations: North American retail motorcycle sales reached 15,847 units, up 5% year-over-year, while global retail sales fell 1% to 25,287 units, suggesting a recovery in North America but ongoing pressures in the global market, impacting overall performance.
- 2026 Financial Outlook: The company anticipates global motorcycle retail sales of 130,000 to 135,000 units in 2026, with expected operating income ranging from a $40 million loss to a $10 million profit, alongside capital investments of $175 to $200 million, indicating confidence in future growth despite current challenges.
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Analyst Views on HOG
Wall Street analysts forecast HOG stock price to rise
4 Analyst Rating
3 Buy
1 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 19.700
Low
32.00
Averages
32.67
High
34.00
Current: 19.700
Low
32.00
Averages
32.67
High
34.00
About HOG
Harley-Davidson, Inc. is the parent company of Harley-Davidson Motor Company and Harley-Davidson Financial Services. The Company operates through three segments: Harley-Davidson Motor Company (HDMC), LiveWire, and Harley-Davidson Financial Services (HDFS). The HDMC segment designs, manufactures and sells Harley-Davidson motorcycles. The HDMC segment also sells motorcycle parts, accessories, and apparel as well as licenses its trademarks. The HDMC segment conducts business on a global basis, with sales in the United States, Canada, Europe/Middle East/Africa, Asia Pacific, and Latin America. The LiveWire segment sells electric motorcycles, electric balance bikes for kids, parts and accessories and apparel in the United States and certain international markets. The HDFS segment is engaged in the business of financing and servicing wholesale inventory receivables and retail consumer loans, primarily for the purchase of Harley-Davidson and LiveWire motorcycles.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Harley-Davidson Announces Quarterly Dividend Increase
- Quarterly Dividend Increase: Harley-Davidson declares a quarterly dividend of $0.1875 per share, marking a 4.2% increase from the previous $0.1800, indicating the company's effort to maintain cash flow stability amid declining sales.
- Dividend Yield: The forward yield stands at 3.67%, reflecting the company's commitment to shareholder returns despite facing strategic resets and sales challenges in the current economic climate.
- Dividend Payment Schedule: The dividend is payable on March 17, with a record date of March 2 and an ex-dividend date also on March 2, ensuring shareholders receive timely returns and bolstering investor confidence.
- Future Strategic Adjustments: Harley-Davidson aims to achieve $150 million in cost savings by 2026 and is focusing on aligning retail and wholesale strategies to address inventory resets, aiming to improve overall financial performance.
See More
Harley-Davidson Announces Q1 2026 Cash Dividend
- Dividend Announcement: Harley-Davidson's Board of Directors has approved a cash dividend of $0.1875 per share for Q1 2026, reflecting the company's ongoing performance in maintaining stable cash flow and profitability, which enhances investor confidence.
- Payment Date: The dividend will be payable on March 17, 2026, to shareholders of record as of March 2, 2026, ensuring timely returns for shareholders and further solidifying the relationship between the company and its investors.
- Shareholder Value: By implementing this dividend policy, Harley-Davidson not only rewards its shareholders but also demonstrates confidence in its future financial health, potentially attracting more long-term investors.
- Company Overview: Harley-Davidson serves as the parent company of Harley-Davidson Motor Company and Harley-Davidson Financial Services, and this dividend reflects its leadership position in the motorcycle industry and robust financial foundation.
See More
Harley-Davidson Q4 2025 Earnings Call Insights
- Sales and Revenue Decline: Harley-Davidson reported a 28% year-over-year decline in consolidated revenue for Q4, totaling $4.5 billion, primarily driven by a 10% drop in HDMC revenue and a staggering 59% decrease in HDFS revenue, indicating significant market pressures.
- Inventory Management Challenges: While North American retail sales grew by 5%, dealer inventory fell by 17% year-over-year, failing to fully alleviate high inventory issues, leading management to express caution regarding future profitability and cost control.
- Cost-Saving Initiatives: Management anticipates achieving at least $150 million in annual savings starting in 2027, aimed at improving financial health through operational optimization and cost reduction, although short-term profit pressures remain a concern.
- 2026 Outlook: Management views 2026 as a transition year, forecasting operating income between $10 million and a loss of $40 million, while facing new tariff costs estimated between $75 million and $105 million, reflecting ongoing uncertainties ahead.
See More
Harley-Davidson Earnings Snapshot Highlights
- Global Sales Performance: Harley-Davidson's global motorcycle retail sales fell 1% year-over-year, with North America up 5% driven by touring models, while Latin America grew 10% supported by Brazil and Mexico; however, EMEA sales dropped 24% and APAC fell 1%, with China remaining soft.
- Revenue and Shipment Trends: Global motorcycle shipments decreased 4% year-over-year, with revenue down 10% due to lower volumes, net pricing, and higher incentive spending, as motorcycle revenue fell 16%, parts and accessories dropped 1%, apparel declined 13%, while licensing revenue surged 61%.
- Financial Losses: The segment reported a gross loss of $30 million compared to a $3 million loss a year ago, primarily due to rising tariffs and ongoing pricing and incentive pressures, indicating challenges in cost management for the company.
- Share Buyback Plan: Harley-Davidson announced a $200 million accelerated share repurchase agreement with Goldman Sachs, with final settlement expected in Q2 2026, reflecting the company's proactive approach to shareholder returns despite facing operational losses.
See More
HARLEY CEO: MANAGEMENT TEAM IS FOCUSING THE COMPANY ON A DEFINITE PRIORITY
- Leadership Focus: The CEO of Harley is emphasizing the importance of reorienting the leadership team to align with the company's core priorities.
- Strategic Direction: The leadership team is tasked with clarifying and prioritizing the company's goals to enhance overall performance and direction.
See More
Harley-Davidson Reports Declining Sales and Revenue Challenges
- Retail Sales Decline: Harley-Davidson's retail segment experienced a 10% revenue drop, leading to a 28% overall revenue decline to $496 million, although better than Wall Street's $480 million forecast, indicating persistent sales weakness that impacts profitability.
- Financial Arm Losses: The financing segment saw a staggering 59% revenue drop, resulting in a loss of $2.44 per share, significantly worse than the anticipated $1.38 loss, highlighting severe challenges across multiple business areas.
- Regional Sales Disparities: While motorcycle sales increased by 5% in North America and 10% in Latin America, the 24% decline in EMEA and 1% drop in Asia Pacific severely impacted overall performance, reflecting uneven market demand.
- Electric Vehicle Brand Improvement: Harley-Davidson's electric vehicle brand LiveWire saw a 61% increase in shipments and a 9% rise in revenue, reducing its operating loss by $8 million compared to last year, showcasing the potential in the electric vehicle market.
See More
Harley-Davidson Announces Quarterly Dividend Increase
- Quarterly Dividend Increase: Harley-Davidson declares a quarterly dividend of $0.1875 per share, marking a 4.2% increase from the previous $0.1800, indicating the company's effort to maintain cash flow stability amid declining sales.
- Dividend Yield: The forward yield stands at 3.67%, reflecting the company's commitment to shareholder returns despite facing strategic resets and sales challenges in the current economic climate.
- Dividend Payment Schedule: The dividend is payable on March 17, with a record date of March 2 and an ex-dividend date also on March 2, ensuring shareholders receive timely returns and bolstering investor confidence.
- Future Strategic Adjustments: Harley-Davidson aims to achieve $150 million in cost savings by 2026 and is focusing on aligning retail and wholesale strategies to address inventory resets, aiming to improve overall financial performance.
See More
Harley-Davidson Announces Q1 2026 Cash Dividend
- Dividend Announcement: Harley-Davidson's Board of Directors has approved a cash dividend of $0.1875 per share for Q1 2026, reflecting the company's ongoing performance in maintaining stable cash flow and profitability, which enhances investor confidence.
- Payment Date: The dividend will be payable on March 17, 2026, to shareholders of record as of March 2, 2026, ensuring timely returns for shareholders and further solidifying the relationship between the company and its investors.
- Shareholder Value: By implementing this dividend policy, Harley-Davidson not only rewards its shareholders but also demonstrates confidence in its future financial health, potentially attracting more long-term investors.
- Company Overview: Harley-Davidson serves as the parent company of Harley-Davidson Motor Company and Harley-Davidson Financial Services, and this dividend reflects its leadership position in the motorcycle industry and robust financial foundation.
See More
Harley-Davidson Q4 2025 Earnings Call Insights
- Sales and Revenue Decline: Harley-Davidson reported a 28% year-over-year decline in consolidated revenue for Q4, totaling $4.5 billion, primarily driven by a 10% drop in HDMC revenue and a staggering 59% decrease in HDFS revenue, indicating significant market pressures.
- Inventory Management Challenges: While North American retail sales grew by 5%, dealer inventory fell by 17% year-over-year, failing to fully alleviate high inventory issues, leading management to express caution regarding future profitability and cost control.
- Cost-Saving Initiatives: Management anticipates achieving at least $150 million in annual savings starting in 2027, aimed at improving financial health through operational optimization and cost reduction, although short-term profit pressures remain a concern.
- 2026 Outlook: Management views 2026 as a transition year, forecasting operating income between $10 million and a loss of $40 million, while facing new tariff costs estimated between $75 million and $105 million, reflecting ongoing uncertainties ahead.
See More
Harley-Davidson Earnings Snapshot Highlights
- Global Sales Performance: Harley-Davidson's global motorcycle retail sales fell 1% year-over-year, with North America up 5% driven by touring models, while Latin America grew 10% supported by Brazil and Mexico; however, EMEA sales dropped 24% and APAC fell 1%, with China remaining soft.
- Revenue and Shipment Trends: Global motorcycle shipments decreased 4% year-over-year, with revenue down 10% due to lower volumes, net pricing, and higher incentive spending, as motorcycle revenue fell 16%, parts and accessories dropped 1%, apparel declined 13%, while licensing revenue surged 61%.
- Financial Losses: The segment reported a gross loss of $30 million compared to a $3 million loss a year ago, primarily due to rising tariffs and ongoing pricing and incentive pressures, indicating challenges in cost management for the company.
- Share Buyback Plan: Harley-Davidson announced a $200 million accelerated share repurchase agreement with Goldman Sachs, with final settlement expected in Q2 2026, reflecting the company's proactive approach to shareholder returns despite facing operational losses.
See More
HARLEY CEO: MANAGEMENT TEAM IS FOCUSING THE COMPANY ON A DEFINITE PRIORITY
- Leadership Focus: The CEO of Harley is emphasizing the importance of reorienting the leadership team to align with the company's core priorities.
- Strategic Direction: The leadership team is tasked with clarifying and prioritizing the company's goals to enhance overall performance and direction.
See More
Harley-Davidson Reports Declining Sales and Revenue Challenges
- Retail Sales Decline: Harley-Davidson's retail segment experienced a 10% revenue drop, leading to a 28% overall revenue decline to $496 million, although better than Wall Street's $480 million forecast, indicating persistent sales weakness that impacts profitability.
- Financial Arm Losses: The financing segment saw a staggering 59% revenue drop, resulting in a loss of $2.44 per share, significantly worse than the anticipated $1.38 loss, highlighting severe challenges across multiple business areas.
- Regional Sales Disparities: While motorcycle sales increased by 5% in North America and 10% in Latin America, the 24% decline in EMEA and 1% drop in Asia Pacific severely impacted overall performance, reflecting uneven market demand.
- Electric Vehicle Brand Improvement: Harley-Davidson's electric vehicle brand LiveWire saw a 61% increase in shipments and a 9% rise in revenue, reducing its operating loss by $8 million compared to last year, showcasing the potential in the electric vehicle market.
See More
