Global Alpha Capital Invests an Additional $15 Million in Its 7th-Largest Holding: Genius Sports
Global Alpha's Investment in Genius Sports: Global Alpha Capital increased its stake in Genius Sports by 537,900 shares, amounting to a net investment of $15.05 million, making it the fund's seventh-largest holding at 3.35% of its assets under management.
Genius Sports Overview: Genius Sports is a leading provider of technology and data services for the sports and betting industries, generating revenue through data licensing, streaming, and integrity services, while currently not yet profitable.
Market Performance: As of December 9, 2025, Genius Sports shares were priced at $10.75, reflecting an 11% increase over the previous year, although it lagged behind the S&P 500 by 2 percentage points.
Future Growth Potential: Despite high stock-based compensation and trading at 36 times forward earnings, Genius Sports is positioned for growth, supported by contracts with major sports leagues and a diverse client base in the sports betting sector.
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- Launch of Data-Driven Tool: Genius Sports (GENI) partners with WPP Media to introduce the WPP Brand Sports Momentum Score, leveraging an individual-level dataset of over 250 million U.S. consumers to help brands invest more precisely in sports advertising.
- Precise Audience Targeting: By integrating Fan Graph and the FANHub advertising platform, WPP Media clients can build custom audiences and deploy sponsorships across direct and programmatic channels, ensuring ad spend is closely linked to tangible business outcomes.
- Joining Innovation Council: WPP Media joins the Genius Sports Innovation Council, collaborating with leagues, teams, and broadcasters to develop next-generation sports advertising solutions, driving the implementation of augmented broadcasts, personalized marketing, and immersive fan experiences.
- Market Reaction: Despite Genius Sports (GENI) shares being down over 40% year-to-date, this partnership is expected to enhance the effectiveness of brand advertising investments by providing precise audience insights and outcome-driven measurement.
- Deal Details: Genius Sports announced the acquisition of Legend for up to $1.2 billion, with $900 million payable at closing and an earnout of $300 million, which is expected to immediately enhance group adjusted core profit margins and free cash flow conversion.
- Revenue Outlook: The company anticipates preliminary group revenue of $669 million for FY25, reflecting a 31% year-on-year growth, and expects FY26 revenue to reach approximately $810-820 million, indicating strong growth potential.
- Financial Targets: Post-acquisition, Genius Sports expects to achieve approximately $1.1 billion in group revenue and $320-330 million in adjusted core profit in 2026, with an anticipated free cash flow conversion rate of about 50%, driving long-term growth.
- Market Reaction: Despite the strategic nature of the deal, Genius Sports' shares plunged 26.5% following the announcement, reflecting market concerns about the acquisition, with the stock down 34% over the past 12 months.
- Massive Acquisition Deal: Genius Sports announced its acquisition of digital sports and gaming media network Legend for up to $1.2 billion, including $800 million in cash and $100 million in stock, which represents 80% of its $1.5 billion market cap, raising concerns about its financial health.
- Profitability Concerns: Despite the large deal size, Genius Sports has yet to achieve profitability, leading to a 23% drop in stock price following the announcement, as investors express skepticism about its future earnings potential.
- Optimistic Business Integration: With Legend's array of media brands and premium content partnerships with Yahoo! Sports and Sports Illustrated, the combined company is expected to see sales double from $669 million in 2025 to $1.6 billion by 2028, indicating strong market potential.
- NFL Stake Boosts Confidence: Given that the NFL holds a 10% stake in Genius Sports and has an exclusive partnership through 2029, there remains optimism about Genius Sports' long-term prospects, with expectations of generating $160 million in free cash flow in 2026.
- Acquisition Overview: Genius Sports announced an agreement to acquire Legend for up to $1.2 billion, with $900 million payable at closing, consisting of $800 million in cash and $100 million in stock, plus a potential earnout of up to $300 million tied to profitability and cash flow targets, expected to close in Q2 2026.
- User Base Integration: In 2025, Legend attracted 320 million annual visits from 118 million unique users, with over two-thirds returning regularly, and this acquisition is expected to integrate this highly engaged sports and gaming audience into Genius Sports' media ecosystem, providing a reliable revenue stream.
- Enhanced Financial Outlook: The acquisition is projected to be immediately accretive to adjusted EBITDA margins and free cash flow conversion, supporting a revenue CAGR of at least 20% from 2026 to 2028, with the combined company expected to achieve approximately $1.1 billion in revenue and $320–330 million in adjusted EBITDA for 2026.
- Market Transformation Potential: CEO Mark Locke stated that the acquisition will drive higher margins and stronger free cash flow, positioning Genius Sports to immediately transform the market and grow the size and scale of its business, with projected revenue reaching $1.6 billion by 2028 and an adjusted EBITDA margin of around 35%.
- Large Transaction Value: Genius Sports announced the acquisition of digital sports and gaming media network Legend for up to $1.2 billion, with $900 million payable at closing and an additional $300 million earnout, reflecting the company's confidence in future growth.
- Strong User Base: In 2025, Legend achieved 320 million annual visits from 118 million unique visitors, with over two-thirds of users returning regularly, providing Genius Sports with rich user data and potential revenue streams.
- Significant Financial Impact: The acquisition is expected to be immediately accretive to the company's adjusted EBITDA margins and free cash flow conversion while maintaining at least a 20% CAGR in group revenue, indicating a robust financial outlook.
- Accelerated Strategic Goals: Genius Sports CEO Mark Locke stated that this deal accelerates the company's strategic and financial objectives, enhances fan monetization, and builds a fully integrated sports and gaming media network, driving higher margins and stronger cash flow.
- Acquisition Scale: Genius Sports has announced the acquisition of Legend for up to $1.2 billion, with $900 million payable at closing and an additional $300 million contingent on achieving profitability and cash flow targets, expected to immediately enhance Group Adjusted EBITDA margins and Free Cash Flow conversion.
- Financial Outlook: Post-acquisition, Genius Sports anticipates achieving approximately $1.1 billion in Group Revenue and $320-330 million in Group Adjusted EBITDA in 2026, with a Free Cash Flow conversion rate of about 50%, indicating strong growth potential and profitability.
- User Base Expansion: In 2025, Legend attracted 320 million visits from 118 million unique visitors, with over two-thirds returning regularly, and this acquisition will bring a highly engaged sports and gaming audience into Genius Sports' media ecosystem, enhancing revenue predictability.
- Strategic Integration Advantage: Through the FANHub platform, Genius Sports will integrate over 2,000 sports, media, and betting partners, enhancing user experience and accelerating fan monetization, further solidifying its leadership position in the global sports and gaming media network.









