FBI Reports 13.9% Increase in Firearm Background Checks in March
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Apr 02 2026
0mins
Source: seekingalpha
- Background Check Surge: The FBI reported a 13.9% month-over-month increase in firearm background checks in March, totaling 2,450,414, indicating a short-term market rebound despite a 4.8% year-over-year decline.
- Historical Highs: March 2021 saw an all-time high of 4,691,738 background checks, with subsequent declines reflecting market volatility and shifts in consumer confidence over the years.
- Future Demand Outlook: Industry insiders anticipate that firearm demand in 2026 will be broadly similar to 2025, facing macroeconomic challenges such as inflation, interest rates, and consumer spending pressures rather than a collapse in underlying interest.
- Stock Market Implications: Stocks related to firearm demand, including Smith & Wesson and Sturm Ruger, are under scrutiny as the market watches for developments in new products and strategic initiatives that could influence their performance.
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Analyst Views on SWBI
Wall Street analysts forecast SWBI stock price to fall
2 Analyst Rating
1 Buy
1 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 13.730
Low
11.00
Averages
11.00
High
11.00
Current: 13.730
Low
11.00
Averages
11.00
High
11.00
About SWBI
Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc. is a manufacturer and designer of firearms. The Company is engaged in delivering a portfolio of handgun, long gun, and suppressor products to the global consumer and professional markets under the Smith & Wesson and Gemtech brands. It sells its products to a variety of customers, including firearm enthusiasts, collectors, hunters, sportsmen, competitive shooters, individuals desiring home and personal protection, law enforcement and security agencies and officers, and military agencies in the United States and throughout the world. It also provides forging and machining services to third parties. It manufactures its products at its facilities in Maryville, Tennessee; Springfield, Massachusetts, and Houlton, Maine. Its products include BodyGuard 2.0, a micro handgun concealed carry pistol; several variants of its Model 1854 Lever-Action Rifle series; M&P FPC in 40 caliber and 10mm; the CSX E-Series; no-lock Classic revolvers and Ultimate Carry revolvers.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Sustained Demand: CEO Mark Smith noted that despite typical lower summer demand, handgun shipments have outpaced federal background check data, suggesting strong market demand, with Q1 expected to significantly outperform last year's results.
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- Positive Market Reaction: SWBI's stock surged over 24% on Thursday, while other gun manufacturers like Sturm, Ruger & Company (RGR) and American Outdoor Brands (AOUT) saw gains of 5% to 6%, reflecting optimistic sentiment towards the firearms industry.
- Sustained Demand: CEO Mark Smith noted that despite typical lower summer demand, handgun shipments have outpaced federal background check data, suggesting strong market demand, with Q1 expected to significantly outperform last year's results.
- Optimistic Industry Outlook: CFO Deana McPherson indicated that firearm demand in FY27 is expected to be slightly higher than FY26, driven by upcoming state regulations and consumer preferences for micro-compact pistols, further propelling industry growth.
See More
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- Smith & Wesson Performance: Smith & Wesson's stock surged approximately 20% after reporting earnings and revenue beats, with handgun sales increasing 23% year-over-year, highlighting strong demand in the firearms market.
See More
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- Significant Revenue Growth: The company achieved Q4 revenue of $178.4 million, surpassing market expectations by $23.13 million, with full-year net sales reaching $523.8 million, reflecting a 10.4% increase that underscores effective sales strategies and strong market demand.
- Strong Handgun Sales: Handgun shipments accounted for over 80% of total units shipped, with a 23.2% year-over-year increase in sales through the sporting goods channel, indicating robust consumer preference and solidifying the company's market position.
- Shareholder Return Plan: The board authorized a quarterly dividend of $0.13 per share, payable on July 15, 2026, demonstrating the company's commitment to creating long-term shareholder value while anticipating mid-single-digit revenue growth in fiscal 2027.
See More
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- Quarterly Dividend Announcement: Smith & Wesson has declared a quarterly dividend of $0.13 per share, consistent with previous distributions, indicating stable cash flow and profitability, which is likely to attract more investor interest.
- Dividend Payment Timeline: The dividend will be payable on July 15, with a record date of July 1 and an ex-dividend date also on July 1, ensuring shareholders receive their returns promptly and bolstering shareholder confidence.
- Future Revenue Expectations: The company anticipates mid-single-digit revenue growth for FY 2027, reflecting its competitive position in the market and ongoing business development potential, which may enhance long-term shareholder returns.
- Capital Expenditure Plans: Smith & Wesson plans approximately $20 million in incremental capital expenditures in Springfield, aimed at enhancing production capacity and technological innovation, thereby supporting future growth strategies.
See More
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- Accenture Acquisition Impact: Accenture's stock fell 13% after announcing its acquisition of asset intelligence company runZero and cybersecurity firm Dragos, with the combined deal valued at approximately $4.175 billion, raising concerns about the company's acquisition strategy.
See More
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- Positive Economic Data: Recent data showed U.S. retail sales in May exceeded expectations, with households increasing spending on cars and other vehicles despite rising gasoline prices, indicating economic resilience and further supporting market confidence.
- Strong Individual Stock Performances: Rumble (RUM.O) surged 16.2% after rebranding to RUM Group and closing its acquisition of German AI cloud company Northern Data; Smith & Wesson (SWBI.O) saw a 16.6% increase following a rise in fourth-quarter sales, highlighting robust performances among individual companies.
See More
