Expect a volatile trading day on Wall Street this Friday. Here's the reason.
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Dec 18 2025
0mins
Should l Buy BILL?
Source: CNBC
Record Options Expiration: Wall Street is preparing for a volatile end to the week due to the largest options expiration on record, with over $7.1 trillion in notional options set to expire, including $5 trillion linked to the S&P 500.
Market Impact: The significant options expiration could lead to increased trading volumes and volatility, particularly around key levels in the S&P 500, as traders finalize their positions for 2025.
Pinning Phenomenon: The expiration of at-the-money options may stabilize price swings, as traders adjust their hedges, potentially leading to a "pin" effect where stocks hover near key strike levels.
Stocks to Watch: Individual stocks with large open interest, such as GeneDx Holdings, BILL Holdings, Avis Budget Group, and GameStop, may experience notable price behavior due to the options expiring.
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Analyst Views on BILL
Wall Street analysts forecast BILL stock price to rise
18 Analyst Rating
11 Buy
7 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 46.370
Low
43.00
Averages
60.80
High
84.00
Current: 46.370
Low
43.00
Averages
60.80
High
84.00
About BILL
BILL Holdings, Inc. provides a financial operations platform for small and midsize businesses (SMBs). The Company offers software-as-a-service, cloud-based payments, and spend and expense management products, which allow users to automate accounts payable and accounts receivable transactions, enable businesses to easily connect with their suppliers and/or customers to do business, eliminate expense reports, manage cash flows, and improve back-office efficiency. Its artificial intelligence (AI)-enabled financial software platform creates seamless connections between its customers, their suppliers, and their clients. Businesses on its platform generate and process invoices, streamline approvals, make and receive payments, manage employee expenses, sync with their accounting system, foster collaboration, and manage their cash flow. Its integrated platform also includes BILL Spend and Expense, its spend and expense management product, which provides a solution for businesses.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Industry Trend Observation: Despite surging AI spending and major players like Meta and Alphabet pushing forward, the future of software companies remains uncertain, particularly for those reliant on single-function products, which may face greater risks of obsolescence.
- Job Market Dynamics: Recent data shows that January layoffs reached the highest level since 2009, with job openings falling to the lowest since 2020, reflecting adjustments in labor demand as companies navigate economic recovery, potentially linked to the rise of AI technologies.
- Investment Strategy Adjustment: Analysts recommend focusing on mission-critical software companies like CrowdStrike and Toast, which may remain stable amid the AI wave due to their essential business functions, urging investors to be selective in navigating market volatility.
See More
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- Surge in AI Spending: While AI spending continues to rise, software companies are facing intensified competitive pressures, particularly those reliant on single-function offerings like HubSpot and Atlassian, which may experience greater market disruption, impacting their future profitability.
- Clear Industry Differentiation: Analysts categorize software companies into three groups: large software leaders like Microsoft, critical ecosystem companies like Shopify, and those with singular functions, with the latter facing higher risks in the wake of AI advancements, potentially leading to market share erosion.
- Job Market Fluctuations: Recent data shows that layoffs in January 2026 reached the highest level since 2009, and while the overall unemployment rate remains within historical averages, this trend may reflect companies adjusting their hiring strategies in light of AI investments and efficiency improvements, affecting future recruitment plans.
See More
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- Dow Hits Record High: The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged 2.47% to reach an all-time high, reflecting market optimism about economic recovery, particularly amid strong rebounds in tech and chipmaker stocks.
- Consumer Confidence Rises: The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index unexpectedly increased to 57.3, surpassing expectations of 55.0, indicating enhanced consumer confidence that could drive future spending.
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- Strong Corporate Earnings: Over 79% of S&P 500 companies exceeded earnings expectations, with S&P earnings growth projected at 8.4% for Q4, providing robust support for the market and indicating ongoing improvement in corporate profitability.
See More
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- Market Performance: The S&P 500 Index rose by 1.10%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 1.60%, reaching an all-time high, reflecting positive market sentiment driven by strong tech earnings results.
- Tech Stock Recovery: Gen Digital and Roblox surged over 7% and 9%, respectively, after forecasting full-year adjusted EPS and bookings above consensus, indicating a robust recovery in the tech sector that may attract more investment.
- Consumer Confidence Boost: The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index unexpectedly rose to 57.3, a six-month high, surpassing expectations of 55.0, reflecting optimistic consumer sentiment about the economic outlook, which supports further market gains.
- Inflation Expectations Shift: While short-term inflation expectations fell, long-term expectations ticked up slightly, indicating market concerns regarding the Fed's monetary policy, which could influence future investment decisions and market volatility.
See More
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- Amazon Investment Concerns: Amazon's announcement of a $200 billion investment in data centers, chips, and other equipment led to a more than 9% drop in its stock, raising doubts about the long-term returns of its AI investments and potentially impacting future investor confidence.
- Earnings Season Insights: With 79% of S&P 500 companies exceeding expectations and Q4 earnings projected to grow by 8.4%, this indicates strong corporate profitability, which may provide ongoing support for the market despite economic uncertainties.
See More
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- Earnings Beat: Bill Holdings reported Q2 revenue of $414.7 million, a 14% year-over-year increase that surpassed analyst expectations of $399.93 million, indicating strong growth potential in the business payments sector.
- Acquisition Talks: Reports indicate that private equity firm Hellman & Friedman is in discussions to acquire Bill Holdings, leading to a 39% surge in the company's stock price on Friday, reflecting market optimism about its future prospects.
- Investor Sentiment High: On Stocktwits, retail sentiment around BILL stock remained in the 'extremely bullish' territory, with message volume increasing from 'high' to 'extremely high', showcasing strong investor interest in a potential buyout.
- Positive Outlook: The company expects FY26 total revenue between $1.63 billion and $1.65 billion, with adjusted net income per diluted share projected at $2.33 to $2.41, both above market estimates, indicating robust long-term growth potential.
See More
