European Banks Warn of Risks from UK Capital Requirement Loosening
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 3 days ago
0mins
Should l Buy BCS?
Source: seekingalpha
- Systemic Risk Warning: Major European banks have warned that the UK's proposal to loosen capital requirements for electronic trading firms like Jane Street and Citadel Securities could heighten the risk of a systemic crisis, as their failures are perceived to not impact depositors, thus considered lower risk.
- Industry Opposition: The Association for Financial Markets in Europe argues that a blanket reduction in capital requirements fails to reflect the systemic risks posed by large investment firms, emphasizing that market risk standards should be calibrated to a firm's activities and systemic footprint rather than its legal form or the presence of retail deposits.
- Policy Advocacy: UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves is urging financial regulators to implement policies that foster growth, indicating government support for financial market reforms that could influence future regulatory directions.
- Regulatory Options Discussion: The Financial Conduct Authority is considering seven options, including replacing the current European approach with a net capital rule similar to that used in the U.S., which may streamline requirements for firms that prefer to utilize their internal risk models, reflecting a focus on market adaptability.
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Analyst Views on BCS
About BCS
Barclays PLC is a diversified bank with five divisions comprising Barclays UK, Barclays UK Corporate Bank, Barclays Private Bank and Wealth Management, Barclays Investment Bank and Barclays US Consumer Bank. The Barclays UK division represents businesses that sit within the United Kingdom ring-fenced bank, Barclays Bank UK PLC and its subsidiaries, and comprises Personal Banking, UK Business Banking and Barclaycard Consumer UK. The Barclays UK Corporate Bank division offers lending, trade and working capital, liquidity, payments, and FX solutions for corporate clients. Barclays Private Bank and Wealth Management division comprises the Private Bank, Wealth Management, and Investments businesses. Barclays Investment Bank division incorporates the Global Markets, Investment Banking, and International Corporate Banking businesses. Barclays US Consumer Bank division represents the United States credit card business, focused on the partnership market, as well as an online deposit franchise.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Optimistic Market Expectations: Despite the economic slowdown, Wall Street analysts predict a roughly 10% increase in the S&P 500 for 2026, primarily driven by economic growth supported by tax cuts and artificial intelligence spending.
- Significant Valuation Risks: The S&P 500 currently trades at a forward P/E ratio of 22, well above the 10-year average of 18.8, having only maintained such high valuations during the dot-com bubble and the pandemic, suggesting potential bear market risks ahead.
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European Banks Warn of Risks from UK Capital Requirement Loosening
- Systemic Risk Warning: Major European banks have warned that the UK's proposal to loosen capital requirements for electronic trading firms like Jane Street and Citadel Securities could heighten the risk of a systemic crisis, as their failures are perceived to not impact depositors, thus considered lower risk.
- Industry Opposition: The Association for Financial Markets in Europe argues that a blanket reduction in capital requirements fails to reflect the systemic risks posed by large investment firms, emphasizing that market risk standards should be calibrated to a firm's activities and systemic footprint rather than its legal form or the presence of retail deposits.
- Policy Advocacy: UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves is urging financial regulators to implement policies that foster growth, indicating government support for financial market reforms that could influence future regulatory directions.
- Regulatory Options Discussion: The Financial Conduct Authority is considering seven options, including replacing the current European approach with a net capital rule similar to that used in the U.S., which may streamline requirements for firms that prefer to utilize their internal risk models, reflecting a focus on market adaptability.
See More
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- Optimistic Market Expectations: Despite the economic slowdown, Wall Street analysts predict a roughly 10% increase in the S&P 500 for 2026, primarily driven by economic growth supported by tax cuts and artificial intelligence spending.
- Significant Valuation Risks: The S&P 500 currently trades at a forward P/E ratio of 22, well above the 10-year average of 18.8, having only maintained such high valuations during the dot-com bubble and the pandemic, suggesting potential bear market risks ahead.
- Midterm Election Impact: Historical data shows that since 1950, the S&P 500 has averaged only a 4.6% return in midterm election years, with an average intra-year drawdown of 17%, increasing uncertainty for the market in 2026.
See More
European Banks Warn of Risks from UK Capital Requirement Loosening
- Systemic Risk Warning: Major European banks have warned that the UK's proposal to loosen capital requirements for electronic trading firms like Jane Street and Citadel Securities could heighten the risk of a systemic crisis, as their failures are perceived to not impact depositors, thus considered lower risk.
- Industry Opposition: The Association for Financial Markets in Europe argues that a blanket reduction in capital requirements fails to reflect the systemic risks posed by large investment firms, emphasizing that market risk standards should be calibrated to a firm's activities and systemic footprint rather than its legal form or the presence of retail deposits.
- Policy Advocacy: UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves is urging financial regulators to implement policies that foster growth, indicating government support for financial market reforms that could influence future regulatory directions.
- Regulatory Options Discussion: The Financial Conduct Authority is considering seven options, including replacing the current European approach with a net capital rule similar to that used in the U.S., which may streamline requirements for firms that prefer to utilize their internal risk models, reflecting a focus on market adaptability.
See More
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- Annual Dividend Announcement: Barclays has declared an annual dividend of 5.6p per ordinary share, payable on March 31, with a record date of February 20 and an ex-dividend date also on February 20, reflecting the company's commitment to consistent shareholder returns.
- Share Buyback Plan: The board has confirmed its intention to initiate a share buyback of up to £1 billion after the balance sheet date, expected to commence in the first quarter of 2026, aimed at enhancing earnings per share and increasing shareholder value.
- Interim Dividend Payment: An interim dividend of 3.0p per ordinary share or 12.0p per ADS was paid on September 16, 2025, demonstrating the company's robust performance in profitability and cash flow management.
- Future Outlook: Barclays topped fourth-quarter estimates and is on track to meet its 2026 targets while unveiling ambitious payout and return targets for 2028, indicating the company's competitive position and growth potential in the market.
See More
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- Stable Revenue Growth: The group income reached £7.08 billion, a 1.7% year-over-year increase, exceeding expectations by £130 million, indicating the company's resilience and sustained market demand amid economic fluctuations.
- Capital Return Plan: Barclays plans to return at least £10 billion of capital to shareholders between 2024 and 2026, primarily through share buybacks and dividends, demonstrating the company's confidence in future growth and commitment to shareholders.
- Long-term Financial Goals: By 2028, Barclays aims for a group RoTE exceeding 14% and plans to return over £15 billion of capital between 2026 and 2028, highlighting the company's focus on sustained investment and growth opportunities.
See More
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- Bid Scale: Both banks are offering over £2 billion for a firm that manages approximately £65 billion in assets, which would significantly enhance their market position if successful.
- Potential Competitors: Although the Royal Bank of Canada (RBC) is speculated to be linked to the auction, it remains unclear whether they will submit a bid, adding uncertainty to the competitive landscape.
- Shareholder Background: Evelyn Partners is owned by private equity firms Permira and Warburg Pincus, and this acquisition could impact their future strategic direction and investment decisions.
See More
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- Leadership Appointment: Barclays has appointed Chetan Vohra as the Global Head of Securitized Products, reporting directly to Adeel Khan, which is expected to drive the next phase of growth for the securitized products platform and enhance cross-asset connectivity.
- Strategic Priority: Securitized products remain a core strategic priority for Barclays' Global Markets, with significant investments made in recent years to enhance capabilities in Agency and Non-Agency trading, thereby driving revenue growth.
- Extensive Experience: Vohra brings deep expertise in securitized products, having held several senior leadership roles at Citi, including Global Head of Securitized Products Trading, where he accumulated 19 years of industry experience, which is expected to provide new perspectives and strategies for Barclays.
- Team Building Skills: Adeel Khan praised Vohra's appointment, describing him as an “exceptional leader” with the ability to meet client demand, which is anticipated to further strengthen Barclays' securitized products business.
See More
