Energy Vault anticipates $40M in recurring EBITDA from Asset Vault Fund 1 with platform launch
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Nov 10 2025
0mins
Should l Buy NRGV?
Source: SeekingAlpha
Management Highlights: Energy Vault's Q3 2025 was pivotal with the launch of the Asset Vault platform, revenue from projects in Texas and California, and a $300 million equity transaction to support a $1.1 billion capital strategy.
Financial Performance: The company reported Q3 revenue of $33.3 million, a significant increase from $1.2 million the previous year, with a gross profit of $9 million and a gross margin of 27%.
Outlook and Projections: Energy Vault maintains a revenue guidance of $200 million to $250 million for 2025, with expectations of $40 million in recurring EBITDA from new projects by 2027 and a total cash balance of $75 million to $100 million by year-end.
Risks and Analyst Sentiment: Management acknowledged macroeconomic volatility and its impact on project timelines, while analysts expressed concerns about expense management and project pipeline clarity, though sentiment remained neutral to slightly positive.
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Analyst Views on NRGV
Wall Street analysts forecast NRGV stock price to rise
3 Analyst Rating
2 Buy
0 Hold
1 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 3.120
Low
2.00
Averages
3.73
High
5.19
Current: 3.120
Low
2.00
Averages
3.73
High
5.19
About NRGV
Energy Vault Holdings, Inc. develops, deploys and operates utility-scale energy storage solutions designed to transform the approach to sustainable energy storage. Its comprehensive offerings include proprietary battery, gravity and green hydrogen energy storage technologies supporting a variety of customer use cases delivering energy system dispatching and optimization. Each storage solution is supported by the Company’s technology-agnostic energy management system software and integration platform. Its technology portfolio delivers customized short, long and multi-day/ultra-long duration energy storage solutions to help utilities, independent power producers, and large industrial energy users. Its solutions include B-Vault, B-Nest, G-Vault, H-Vault and software solutions. Its software solutions include Vault-OS Energy Management System, Vault-Bidder and Vault-Manager. Its projects include Calistoga Resiliency Center, Cross Trails Battery Energy Storage System and SOSA Energy Center.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
U.S. Stocks Decline Midway, Nasdaq Drops Over 350 Points
- Market Performance: U.S. stocks traded lower midway through Thursday, with the Nasdaq Composite falling over 350 points, and the S&P 500 dropping 1.18% to 6,859.69, indicating a weakening market sentiment amid growing investor concerns about the economic outlook.
- Sector Dynamics: Utility stocks rose by 2.4%, while information technology stocks fell by 1.5%, reflecting a market preference for defensive sectors as investors seek stable returns in light of economic uncertainty.
- Stock Highlights: American Electric Power Company, Inc. (NASDAQ:AEP) shares gained around 5% after reporting adjusted earnings of $1.19 per share, down from $1.24 a year ago but exceeding the Street estimate of $1.15, demonstrating the company's resilience in challenging conditions.
- Economic Data: U.S. initial jobless claims fell by 5,000 to 227,000, although slightly above market estimates of 222,000, indicating labor market resilience that could positively impact economic recovery.
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- Convertible Notes Impact: Energy Vault priced $140 million of 5.25% convertible senior notes, which raised liquidity but triggered a 20.69% stock drop due to dilution concerns, indicating a significant impact on investor confidence despite broader market strength.
- Q4 Revenue Outlook Upgraded: The company expects Q4 sales between $150 million and $155 million, surpassing the Street's estimate of $140.86 million, and reflecting a substantial year-over-year increase from $33.47 million, showcasing strong demand in renewable energy storage.
- Technical Analysis Indicates Bearish Trend: The stock is trading 33.3% below its 20-day SMA and 18.8% below its 100-day SMA, suggesting a bearish trend in the short term, even as shares have risen 161.94% over the past year, highlighting strong long-term performance.
- Analyst Ratings and Market Sentiment: While analysts maintain a Buy rating with a target price of $5.39, Goldman Sachs recently lowered its target to $2.00, reflecting concerns about the company's financial outlook, prompting investors to exercise caution.
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- Conversion Rate and Price: The initial conversion rate is 193.1807 shares of common stock per $1,000 principal amount, equating to an initial conversion price of approximately $5.18 per share, which provides investors with potential upside while reflecting market expectations for the company's future growth.
- Clear Use of Proceeds: The funds raised will cover capped call costs, redeem $35 million to $45 million of existing YA II PN, Ltd. debentures, and support general corporate needs such as debt repayment and growth, showcasing the company's strategic financial management.
- Stock Price Volatility: Following the announcement of the convertible notes issuance, Energy Vault's stock price plummeted about 18% during after-market trading on Wednesday, reflecting market concerns regarding the company's financial health and investor sentiment fluctuations.
See More
Energy Vault Prices $140 Million Convertible Notes Offering
- Upsized Offering: Energy Vault announced the pricing of $140 million in 5.250% convertible senior notes, up from the previously announced $125 million, indicating strong market demand for its sustainable energy storage solutions.
- Clear Use of Proceeds: The company expects to net approximately $135.5 million, primarily to fund capped call transactions, redeem $35 million to $45 million in convertible debt, and support general corporate purposes, enhancing financial flexibility.
- Attractive Conversion Terms: The initial conversion price of approximately $5.18 per share represents a 27.5% premium over the current stock price, providing investors with potential capital appreciation opportunities while laying the groundwork for future equity financing.
- Risk Management Strategy: Through capped call transactions, Energy Vault aims to mitigate potential dilution risks associated with the conversion of notes, ensuring effective cash management during conversions, which enhances market confidence and stabilizes stock prices.
See More
Energy Vault Prices $140 Million Convertible Notes Offering
- Upsized Offering: Energy Vault announced the pricing of $140 million in 5.250% convertible senior notes, increasing from the previously announced $125 million, indicating strong market demand for its sustainable energy storage solutions.
- Clear Use of Proceeds: The company expects to net approximately $135.5 million, primarily to fund capped call transactions, redeem $35 million to $45 million of existing convertible debentures, and for general corporate purposes, enhancing financial flexibility.
- Attractive Conversion Terms: The initial conversion price of approximately $5.18 per share represents a 27.5% premium over the current stock price, potentially attracting investors to convert their notes as the stock price appreciates, thereby increasing shareholder value.
- Risk-Reward Balance: Through capped call transactions, Energy Vault aims to mitigate potential dilution while ensuring cash payment capabilities when market prices exceed conversion prices, thereby bolstering investor confidence.
See More
Energy Vault Prices $140 Million Convertible Notes Offering
- Upsized Offering: Energy Vault announced the pricing of $140 million in convertible senior notes at a 5.250% interest rate, an increase from the previously planned $125 million, indicating strong market demand for its sustainable energy storage solutions.
- Clear Use of Proceeds: The company expects to net approximately $135.5 million from the offering, primarily to fund capped call transactions, redeem $35 million to $45 million of convertible debt, and support general corporate purposes, enhancing financial flexibility.
- Attractive Conversion Terms: The initial conversion price of approximately $5.18 per share represents a 27.5% premium over the last closing price of $4.06 on February 11, 2026, potentially attracting investors to convert their notes in the future, which could boost the company's stock price.
- Risk Management Strategy: Through capped call transactions, Energy Vault aims to mitigate potential dilution of equity, ensuring that cash payments upon conversion do not exceed the principal amount of the notes, thereby enhancing investor confidence and market stability.
See More
U.S. Stocks Decline Midway, Nasdaq Drops Over 350 Points
- Market Performance: U.S. stocks traded lower midway through Thursday, with the Nasdaq Composite falling over 350 points, and the S&P 500 dropping 1.18% to 6,859.69, indicating a weakening market sentiment amid growing investor concerns about the economic outlook.
- Sector Dynamics: Utility stocks rose by 2.4%, while information technology stocks fell by 1.5%, reflecting a market preference for defensive sectors as investors seek stable returns in light of economic uncertainty.
- Stock Highlights: American Electric Power Company, Inc. (NASDAQ:AEP) shares gained around 5% after reporting adjusted earnings of $1.19 per share, down from $1.24 a year ago but exceeding the Street estimate of $1.15, demonstrating the company's resilience in challenging conditions.
- Economic Data: U.S. initial jobless claims fell by 5,000 to 227,000, although slightly above market estimates of 222,000, indicating labor market resilience that could positively impact economic recovery.
See More
Energy Vault's Convertible Notes Offering Pressures Stock Amid Dilution Concerns
- Convertible Notes Impact: Energy Vault priced $140 million of 5.25% convertible senior notes, which raised liquidity but triggered a 20.69% stock drop due to dilution concerns, indicating a significant impact on investor confidence despite broader market strength.
- Q4 Revenue Outlook Upgraded: The company expects Q4 sales between $150 million and $155 million, surpassing the Street's estimate of $140.86 million, and reflecting a substantial year-over-year increase from $33.47 million, showcasing strong demand in renewable energy storage.
- Technical Analysis Indicates Bearish Trend: The stock is trading 33.3% below its 20-day SMA and 18.8% below its 100-day SMA, suggesting a bearish trend in the short term, even as shares have risen 161.94% over the past year, highlighting strong long-term performance.
- Analyst Ratings and Market Sentiment: While analysts maintain a Buy rating with a target price of $5.39, Goldman Sachs recently lowered its target to $2.00, reflecting concerns about the company's financial outlook, prompting investors to exercise caution.
See More
Energy Vault Prices $140M Convertible Senior Notes at 5.25% Interest
- Convertible Notes Issuance: Energy Vault has upsized and priced $140 million in convertible senior notes with a 5.25% annual interest rate, set to begin semiannual payments on September 1, 2026, maturing on March 1, 2031, indicating proactive financing efforts by the company.
- Conversion Rate and Price: The initial conversion rate is 193.1807 shares of common stock per $1,000 principal amount, equating to an initial conversion price of approximately $5.18 per share, which provides investors with potential upside while reflecting market expectations for the company's future growth.
- Clear Use of Proceeds: The funds raised will cover capped call costs, redeem $35 million to $45 million of existing YA II PN, Ltd. debentures, and support general corporate needs such as debt repayment and growth, showcasing the company's strategic financial management.
- Stock Price Volatility: Following the announcement of the convertible notes issuance, Energy Vault's stock price plummeted about 18% during after-market trading on Wednesday, reflecting market concerns regarding the company's financial health and investor sentiment fluctuations.
See More
Energy Vault Prices $140 Million Convertible Notes Offering
- Upsized Offering: Energy Vault announced the pricing of $140 million in 5.250% convertible senior notes, up from the previously announced $125 million, indicating strong market demand for its sustainable energy storage solutions.
- Clear Use of Proceeds: The company expects to net approximately $135.5 million, primarily to fund capped call transactions, redeem $35 million to $45 million in convertible debt, and support general corporate purposes, enhancing financial flexibility.
- Attractive Conversion Terms: The initial conversion price of approximately $5.18 per share represents a 27.5% premium over the current stock price, providing investors with potential capital appreciation opportunities while laying the groundwork for future equity financing.
- Risk Management Strategy: Through capped call transactions, Energy Vault aims to mitigate potential dilution risks associated with the conversion of notes, ensuring effective cash management during conversions, which enhances market confidence and stabilizes stock prices.
See More
Energy Vault Prices $140 Million Convertible Notes Offering
- Upsized Offering: Energy Vault announced the pricing of $140 million in 5.250% convertible senior notes, increasing from the previously announced $125 million, indicating strong market demand for its sustainable energy storage solutions.
- Clear Use of Proceeds: The company expects to net approximately $135.5 million, primarily to fund capped call transactions, redeem $35 million to $45 million of existing convertible debentures, and for general corporate purposes, enhancing financial flexibility.
- Attractive Conversion Terms: The initial conversion price of approximately $5.18 per share represents a 27.5% premium over the current stock price, potentially attracting investors to convert their notes as the stock price appreciates, thereby increasing shareholder value.
- Risk-Reward Balance: Through capped call transactions, Energy Vault aims to mitigate potential dilution while ensuring cash payment capabilities when market prices exceed conversion prices, thereby bolstering investor confidence.
See More
Energy Vault Prices $140 Million Convertible Notes Offering
- Upsized Offering: Energy Vault announced the pricing of $140 million in convertible senior notes at a 5.250% interest rate, an increase from the previously planned $125 million, indicating strong market demand for its sustainable energy storage solutions.
- Clear Use of Proceeds: The company expects to net approximately $135.5 million from the offering, primarily to fund capped call transactions, redeem $35 million to $45 million of convertible debt, and support general corporate purposes, enhancing financial flexibility.
- Attractive Conversion Terms: The initial conversion price of approximately $5.18 per share represents a 27.5% premium over the last closing price of $4.06 on February 11, 2026, potentially attracting investors to convert their notes in the future, which could boost the company's stock price.
- Risk Management Strategy: Through capped call transactions, Energy Vault aims to mitigate potential dilution of equity, ensuring that cash payments upon conversion do not exceed the principal amount of the notes, thereby enhancing investor confidence and market stability.
See More
