Cathie Wood's ARK Invest Projects $2.5 Trillion Valuation For Elon Musk's SpaceX By 2030—7x Growth Through Mars, Starlink, Optimus
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Jun 11 2025
0mins
Source: Benzinga
Ark Invest's Forecast for SpaceX: Ark Invest, in collaboration with Mach33, predicts a $2.5 trillion enterprise value for SpaceX by 2030, driven by the growth of its Starlink satellite broadband business and ambitions for Mars infrastructure, while acknowledging significant risks involved.
Market Impact and Investment Opportunities: Despite challenges from government contracts and competition, investors can gain exposure to SpaceX through private market ETFs like the Ark Venture Fund, which has shown positive performance recently.
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Analyst Views on DXYZ
About DXYZ
Destiny Tech100 Inc. (the Fund) is a non-diversified, closed-end management investment company. The Fund’s investment objective is to maximize the portfolio’s total return, principally by seeking capital gains on equity and equity-related investments. Under normal market conditions, the Fund will invest at least 80% of its total assets in equity and equity-linked securities of companies principally engaged in the technology sector. The Fund will invest in the equity and equity-linked securities of what it believes to be rapidly growing venture-capital-backed emerging companies, located in the United States. The Fund may also invest on an opportunistic basis in select United States publicly traded equity securities or certain non-United States companies that otherwise meet its investment criteria. It concentrates its investments in companies operating in one or more industries within the technology group of industries. Destiny Advisors LLC serves as the investment adviser to the Fund.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Anthropic Faces Global Scrutiny and IPO Challenges
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- IPO Application Dynamics: Anthropic has confidentially filed for an IPO alongside rival OpenAI, although facing regulatory pressures and market uncertainties, this move could significantly impact its future financing capabilities and market positioning.
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- Increased External Scrutiny: The U.S. government has ordered Anthropic to bar foreign entities from using its Mythos and Fable 5 AI models, leading to the withdrawal of Claude models by Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan in Hong Kong, highlighting escalating security concerns over AI technology.
- IPO Application Dynamics: Anthropic has confidentially filed for an IPO alongside rival OpenAI, although facing regulatory pressures and market uncertainties, this move could significantly impact its future financing capabilities and market positioning.
- Market Valuation Fluctuations: Anthropic's private market valuation reached $1 trillion, while OpenAI's stood at $820.7 billion, indicating strong market confidence in Anthropic despite external scrutiny.
- National Security Risks: Anthropic's withdrawal of AI models due to alleged
See More
G7 Summit Highlights AI's Growing Influence
- AI Leaders Attend: On the final day of the G7 summit, top AI CEOs including Sam Altman from OpenAI and Dario Amodei from Anthropic gathered, highlighting AI's increasing significance in global diplomacy and policymaking, which could influence future international cooperation and regulation.
- U.S. Restrictions: The U.S. recently barred Anthropic from providing access to its latest AI models to foreign individuals and entities, prompting the company to disable these models entirely, reigniting calls for sovereign AI in Europe and reflecting concerns over strategic risks associated with reliance on American AI providers.
- IPO Developments: Both OpenAI and Anthropic are advancing their plans to go public, with OpenAI having confidentially filed its IPO paperwork with U.S. regulators, although the size of the offering remains undisclosed, potentially opening the AI market to a broader pool of investors.
- Deteriorating Financials: OpenAI's net loss surged from $5 billion in 2024 to a staggering $39 billion last year, despite generating $2 billion in monthly revenue, indicating that high expenditures on AI model development and securing compute capacity are significantly impacting its financial health.
See More
SpaceX IPO Allocation Sparks Retail Investor Discontent
- Allocation Shortfall: SpaceX allocated only 20% of its IPO shares to retail investors despite demand exceeding $100 billion, resulting in many buyers receiving only a fraction of their requested shares, highlighting the immense market interest and investor disappointment.
- Market Volatility: Following the SpaceX IPO, related ETFs like the Tradr 2X Long SpaceX Daily ETF and Defiance's 2X SpaceX ETF surged by 22%, while bearish funds such as the Leverage Shares 2X Short SPCX Daily ETF plummeted by 30%, indicating significant market fluctuations and diverging investor sentiments.
- Profit-Taking by Investors: Many investors opted to take profits after SpaceX shares jumped 20% on debut, with individuals like Marvin Jung receiving only 17 shares out of a requested 1000, leading to varied expectations and holding strategies that could impact future market liquidity.
- Focus on Indirect Investments: Funds like DXYZ, NASA, and VCX, which serve as proxies for SpaceX, are under close scrutiny, with DXYZ holding 16.2% in SpaceX and VCX investing 20.7% in Anthropic, reflecting investor interest in indirect exposure and expectations for SpaceX's future performance.
See More
O'Leary Advocates for Diversified Investment in AI and Space
- Diversification Strategy: O'Leary emphasizes that investors should not focus on a single company but instead gain exposure to SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic through funds like DXYZ, NASA, and VCX, thereby reducing risk and capitalizing on growth potential in the AI and space sectors.
- Upcoming IPO Wave: OpenAI and Anthropic are preparing for IPOs, with OpenAI expected to command a valuation near $1 trillion, while SpaceX seeks a $75 billion IPO, which would become one of the largest in history, drawing significant market attention.
- Portfolio Performance: In DXYZ, Anthropic accounts for 18.1%, SpaceX for 14.5%, and OpenAI for 5.8%, while the fund also holds stakes in various private tech companies, showcasing its diversified approach in emerging markets.
- ETF Asset Growth: Since its launch in March, the NASA ETF has grown to $2.6 billion in assets, with SpaceX representing 6.9% of the portfolio, reflecting strong investor interest in the space economy and increasing demand for related investment vehicles.
See More
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- IPO Potential: SpaceX plans to file its S-1 with the SEC on May 20, 2026, targeting a valuation between $1.75 trillion and $2 trillion, which could make it one of the largest market events in history; however, this limited public float of about 5% poses significant risks alongside potential rewards.
- Starlink Revenue Surge: In 2025, SpaceX is projected to generate $18 billion in revenue, with its Starlink satellite internet business contributing $11.4 billion, accounting for 61% of total revenue, highlighting its strong market performance and profitability, especially with Starlink's paid subscriptions reaching 10.3 million in Q1 2026, doubling from the previous year.
- Diverse Investment Options: Retail investors can gain indirect exposure to SpaceX through funds like XOVR and DXYZ, with XOVR holding approximately $292 million in SpaceX shares and nearing $1.5 billion in total assets, but investors should be aware of liquidity risks and valuation lag issues.
- Rocket Lab Opportunity: Rocket Lab signed its largest launch contract in history, targeting five Neutron and three Electron launches between 2026 and 2029, surpassing its previous record of $190 million, with a total backlog now exceeding $2.2 billion, showcasing its competitive edge and growth potential in the aerospace market.
See More
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- Revenue Highlights: SpaceX reported $18 billion in revenue for 2025, with its Starlink satellite internet business contributing $11.4 billion, accounting for 61% of total revenue, showcasing strong market performance and growth potential.
- User Growth: As of Q1 2026, Starlink had 10.3 million paid subscriptions, doubling from the previous year, indicating rapid expansion and a solid user base in the global internet access market.
- Profitability: Starlink is the only profitable division for SpaceX, generating $4.42 billion in income, further solidifying the company's financial health in a competitive tech landscape.
- IPO Outlook: The IPO is expected to float about 5% of the company at a valuation between $1.75 trillion and $2 trillion, reflecting enormous investment demand and market interest despite the risks of sentiment fluctuations.
See More
