Canadian Natural Resources Anticipates Oil Price Crash in 2026
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Dec 30 2025
0mins
Should l Buy CNQ?
Source: Fool
- Significant Dividend Growth: Canadian Natural Resources has increased its dividend by 9,300% over the past 24 years, currently boasting a yield more than four times that of the average S&P 500 company, reflecting its strong cash flow and commitment to shareholder returns.
- Uncertain Market Outlook: Although the company has historically raised dividends during oil price crashes, it anticipates a significant drop in oil prices in 2026 due to AI technologies enhancing production efficiency, which may pressure stock prices in the short term.
- Cost Advantage: With operating costs at just $21 per barrel, the company is well-positioned to survive downturns, and its $4.3 billion liquidity allows for strategic acquisitions during market lows.
- Lessons from History: During the 2014-2015 oil price crash, the company successfully navigated the crisis by acquiring Devon Energy's assets and increasing dividends, suggesting it may employ similar strategies to tackle upcoming challenges.
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Analyst Views on CNQ
Wall Street analysts forecast CNQ stock price to fall
9 Analyst Rating
4 Buy
5 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 39.990
Low
33.83
Averages
39.17
High
62.00
Current: 39.990
Low
33.83
Averages
39.17
High
62.00
About CNQ
Canadian Natural Resources Limited is a senior crude oil and natural gas production company. The Company has operations in its core areas located in Western Canada, the United Kingdom portion of the North Sea and Offshore Africa. Its Oil Sands Mining and Upgrading segment produces synthetic crude oil through bitumen mining and upgrading operations at Horizon Oil Sands (Horizon) and through the Company's direct and indirect interest in the Athabasca Oil Sands Project (AOSP). Within Western Canada in the Midstream and Refining segment, the Company maintains certain activities that include pipeline operations, an electricity co-generation system and an investment in the North West Redwater Partnership (NWRP), a general partnership formed to upgrade and refine bitumen in the Province of Alberta. Its Pelican Lake asset is a large, contiguous, shallow, medium crude oil pool. It produces natural gas in western Canada and has a significant land base in both the Montney and Deep Basin.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Canadian Natural Resources Shows Remarkable Dividend Growth
- Remarkable Dividend Growth: Since 2001, Canadian Natural Resources has increased its dividend by 9,300%, starting from $0.00625 per share and tripling within five years, demonstrating the company's strong profitability and commitment to shareholder returns.
- Sustained Cash Flow: The company generated $14.8 billion in operating cash flow last year, easily covering the $3.6 billion needed for dividend payments, indicating robust financial health and the ability to continue increasing dividends in the future.
- Industry-Leading Cost Structure: Even with an expected energy glut, Canadian Natural Resources can remain profitable as long as oil prices stay above $21 per barrel, showcasing its competitive advantage in the industry.
- Attractive Yield for Investors: With a current dividend yield of 4.3%, nearly quadruple the S&P 500 average, the company appeals to investors seeking fast-growing and reliable income, further solidifying its market position.
See More
Canadian Natural Resources in Talks to Acquire $1B Natural Gas Portfolio from Tourmaline Oil
- Acquisition Talks: Canadian Natural Resources is in discussions to acquire a portfolio of natural gas assets worth over $1 billion from Tourmaline Oil, indicating strong interest in the region's resources.
- Regulatory Approval Filing: The company filed for federal approval with Canada's Competition Bureau on December 30, although specific deal details remain undisclosed, this move underscores its firm acquisition intentions.
- Asset Background: Tourmaline Oil is a major natural gas producer in Canada's Montney Basin, which produces approximately 10 billion cubic feet of natural gas daily, accounting for about half of Canada's total output, highlighting the strategic significance of this transaction.
- Market Dynamics: Interest in the Montney Basin has surged due to the launch of the LNG Canada export terminal in British Columbia last year, further driving attention to the region's economic production potential.
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- Automation Investment Opportunity: Only 37% of U.S. manufacturers currently utilize automation, with 73% planning to increase investment in the next three years, indicating significant growth potential for STAG Industrial as a real estate investment trust.
- Stable Dividend Returns: STAG Industrial offers a 4% dividend yield, which, despite only a 3% increase over the past five years, remains reliable with a payout ratio of 59% of core funds from operations, making it a solid investment choice.
- Strong Market Performance: Over the past five years, STAG's stock has returned 55%, demonstrating resilience amid market fluctuations, with expectations for continued upside potential.
- Beneficiary of Economic Growth: With the U.S. economy recovering, STAG Industrial boasts a rental rate of 96.8%, and its portfolio is closely aligned with trends in manufacturing automation and reshoring, signaling future growth potential.
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- Market Uncertainty: Analysts highlight that Canadian heavy oil miners like Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ) and Suncor Energy (SU) saw significant stock declines following Maduro's overthrow, reflecting market concerns about their future, particularly amid a crash in Western Canadian Select (WCS) prices.
- Increased Competition Risk: With Venezuelan crude potentially returning, CNQ and SU, which send about a third of their daily output to U.S. Gulf Coast refineries, may face direct competition, further impacting their market share and profitability.
- Small Company Risks: Analyst Long Player warns that current economic uncertainty could lead to longer recovery times for smaller oil and gas companies like HighPeak Energy (HPK) and Prairie Operating (PROP), especially with weakening commodity prices, prompting investors to be cautious with stocks under $1 billion market cap.
- Investment Strategy Shift: Given the political uncertainty and unclear economic outlook, analysts recommend avoiding investments in small-cap oil and gas stocks, particularly those without income like New Era Energy & Digital (NUAI), to mitigate investment risks.
See More
Pfizer, Realty Income, and Canadian Natural Resources Offer Over $2,000 in Annual Dividends
- Pfizer's High Dividend: Despite a more than 30% decline in share price over the past five years, Pfizer maintains a high dividend yield of 6.8%, allowing a $12,000 investment to generate approximately $820 annually, reflecting its commitment to shareholder value and stability.
- Safety of Realty Income: As a REIT, Realty Income offers a dividend yield of 5.6%, with a $12,000 investment yielding around $670 annually, and its history of 665 dividend increases over more than 30 years ensures income security for long-term investors.
- Growth of Canadian Natural Resources: The company has performed well amid economic uncertainty and has increased its production guidance for 2025, with a reasonable stock price and a 5% dividend yield supported by a 70% payout ratio, making it a stable income investment.
- Combined Income Potential: The total investment of $36,000 across these three stocks could yield nearly $2,100 in annual dividends, showcasing an effective strategy for finding safe, high-yield investments in uncertain markets.
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Venezuela News Causes Decline in Some Oil Stocks, Presenting Potential Buying Opportunities.
Oil Stocks Surge: Several oil stocks, including Chevron, SLB, and Halliburton, experienced significant gains of over 5% on Monday.
U.S. Involvement in Venezuela: The increase in stock prices is attributed to the U.S.-initiated regime change in Venezuela, which is expected to open opportunities for these companies.
Rebuilding Energy Sector: The companies are poised to profit from the potential rebuilding of Venezuela's energy sector, supported by the U.S. government.
Market Reaction: The market's positive response reflects investor optimism regarding the future of oil production and investment in Venezuela.
See More
Canadian Natural Resources Shows Remarkable Dividend Growth
- Remarkable Dividend Growth: Since 2001, Canadian Natural Resources has increased its dividend by 9,300%, starting from $0.00625 per share and tripling within five years, demonstrating the company's strong profitability and commitment to shareholder returns.
- Sustained Cash Flow: The company generated $14.8 billion in operating cash flow last year, easily covering the $3.6 billion needed for dividend payments, indicating robust financial health and the ability to continue increasing dividends in the future.
- Industry-Leading Cost Structure: Even with an expected energy glut, Canadian Natural Resources can remain profitable as long as oil prices stay above $21 per barrel, showcasing its competitive advantage in the industry.
- Attractive Yield for Investors: With a current dividend yield of 4.3%, nearly quadruple the S&P 500 average, the company appeals to investors seeking fast-growing and reliable income, further solidifying its market position.
See More
Canadian Natural Resources in Talks to Acquire $1B Natural Gas Portfolio from Tourmaline Oil
- Acquisition Talks: Canadian Natural Resources is in discussions to acquire a portfolio of natural gas assets worth over $1 billion from Tourmaline Oil, indicating strong interest in the region's resources.
- Regulatory Approval Filing: The company filed for federal approval with Canada's Competition Bureau on December 30, although specific deal details remain undisclosed, this move underscores its firm acquisition intentions.
- Asset Background: Tourmaline Oil is a major natural gas producer in Canada's Montney Basin, which produces approximately 10 billion cubic feet of natural gas daily, accounting for about half of Canada's total output, highlighting the strategic significance of this transaction.
- Market Dynamics: Interest in the Montney Basin has surged due to the launch of the LNG Canada export terminal in British Columbia last year, further driving attention to the region's economic production potential.
See More
STAG Industrial: 4% Steady Dividend Amid Automation Trends
- Automation Investment Opportunity: Only 37% of U.S. manufacturers currently utilize automation, with 73% planning to increase investment in the next three years, indicating significant growth potential for STAG Industrial as a real estate investment trust.
- Stable Dividend Returns: STAG Industrial offers a 4% dividend yield, which, despite only a 3% increase over the past five years, remains reliable with a payout ratio of 59% of core funds from operations, making it a solid investment choice.
- Strong Market Performance: Over the past five years, STAG's stock has returned 55%, demonstrating resilience amid market fluctuations, with expectations for continued upside potential.
- Beneficiary of Economic Growth: With the U.S. economy recovering, STAG Industrial boasts a rental rate of 96.8%, and its portfolio is closely aligned with trends in manufacturing automation and reshoring, signaling future growth potential.
See More
Oil Stocks Losing Appeal: Analysts Downgrade CNQ and SU
- Market Uncertainty: Analysts highlight that Canadian heavy oil miners like Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ) and Suncor Energy (SU) saw significant stock declines following Maduro's overthrow, reflecting market concerns about their future, particularly amid a crash in Western Canadian Select (WCS) prices.
- Increased Competition Risk: With Venezuelan crude potentially returning, CNQ and SU, which send about a third of their daily output to U.S. Gulf Coast refineries, may face direct competition, further impacting their market share and profitability.
- Small Company Risks: Analyst Long Player warns that current economic uncertainty could lead to longer recovery times for smaller oil and gas companies like HighPeak Energy (HPK) and Prairie Operating (PROP), especially with weakening commodity prices, prompting investors to be cautious with stocks under $1 billion market cap.
- Investment Strategy Shift: Given the political uncertainty and unclear economic outlook, analysts recommend avoiding investments in small-cap oil and gas stocks, particularly those without income like New Era Energy & Digital (NUAI), to mitigate investment risks.
See More
Pfizer, Realty Income, and Canadian Natural Resources Offer Over $2,000 in Annual Dividends
- Pfizer's High Dividend: Despite a more than 30% decline in share price over the past five years, Pfizer maintains a high dividend yield of 6.8%, allowing a $12,000 investment to generate approximately $820 annually, reflecting its commitment to shareholder value and stability.
- Safety of Realty Income: As a REIT, Realty Income offers a dividend yield of 5.6%, with a $12,000 investment yielding around $670 annually, and its history of 665 dividend increases over more than 30 years ensures income security for long-term investors.
- Growth of Canadian Natural Resources: The company has performed well amid economic uncertainty and has increased its production guidance for 2025, with a reasonable stock price and a 5% dividend yield supported by a 70% payout ratio, making it a stable income investment.
- Combined Income Potential: The total investment of $36,000 across these three stocks could yield nearly $2,100 in annual dividends, showcasing an effective strategy for finding safe, high-yield investments in uncertain markets.
See More
Venezuela News Causes Decline in Some Oil Stocks, Presenting Potential Buying Opportunities.
Oil Stocks Surge: Several oil stocks, including Chevron, SLB, and Halliburton, experienced significant gains of over 5% on Monday.
U.S. Involvement in Venezuela: The increase in stock prices is attributed to the U.S.-initiated regime change in Venezuela, which is expected to open opportunities for these companies.
Rebuilding Energy Sector: The companies are poised to profit from the potential rebuilding of Venezuela's energy sector, supported by the U.S. government.
Market Reaction: The market's positive response reflects investor optimism regarding the future of oil production and investment in Venezuela.
See More
