Bunge Receives Upgrade, While ADM Faces Downgrade at Morgan Stanley Due to Company-Specific Factors
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Dec 16 2025
0mins
Source: SeekingAlpha
Morgan Stanley's Upgrade and Downgrade: Morgan Stanley upgraded Bunge Global to Overweight and downgraded Archer Daniels Midland to Underweight, citing a shift in agribusiness focus from macro factors to company-specific performance and earnings trajectories.
Bunge's Positive Outlook: The bank raised Bunge's price target significantly, attributing its favorable outlook to the acquisition of Viterra, which is expected to enhance operational and commercial synergies, potentially increasing mid-cycle earnings to around $12 per share.
Challenges for ADM: Morgan Stanley expressed concerns about ADM's Carbohydrate Solutions segment, noting downside risks due to a weakening operating environment and lowered earnings estimates for 2026 by about 10%.
Valuation Insights: The firm maintained valuation multiples for both companies but highlighted that Bunge's risk-reward profile appears more attractive than ADM's, suggesting a strategic shift towards Bunge amid growing risks associated with ADM.
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Analyst Views on ADM
Wall Street analysts forecast ADM stock price to fall
5 Analyst Rating
0 Buy
2 Hold
3 Sell
Moderate Sell
Current: 69.500
Low
50.00
Averages
56.80
High
61.00
Current: 69.500
Low
50.00
Averages
56.80
High
61.00
About ADM
Archer-Daniels-Midland Company is a global agricultural supply chain manager and processor, providing food security by connecting local needs with global capabilities. It is a human and animal nutrition provider. Its Ag Services and Oilseeds segment includes global activities related to the origination, merchandising, transportation, and storage of agricultural raw materials, and the crushing and further processing of oilseeds, such as soybeans and soft seeds into vegetable oils and protein meals. Carbohydrate Solutions segment is engaged in corn and wheat wet and dry milling and other activities. Nutrition segment is engaged in the creation, manufacturing, sale, and distribution of a wide array of ingredients and solutions, including plant-based proteins, flavors and colors derived from nature, flavor systems, emulsifiers, soluble fiber, polyols, hydrocolloids, probiotics, prebiotics, postbiotics, enzymes, botanical extracts, and other specialty food and feed ingredients and systems.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Dividend Yield: The current annualized dividend for ADM stands at $2.08/share, paid quarterly, with the next ex-dividend date on February 17, 2026, resulting in an approximate yield of 3.1%, showcasing the company's commitment to returning value to shareholders.
- Long-term Dividend History: ADM's long-term dividend history chart provides investors with insights into the sustainability of its recent dividend payments, further bolstering investor confidence in the stock's reliability.
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- Tech Sector Retreat: Data service and software stocks plummeted following the release of an automation tool by AI firm Anthropic, with Thomson Reuters and EPAM Systems down over 15% and 13% respectively, reflecting a loss of confidence in tech stocks.
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- Cost-Saving Initiatives: The company executed over 20 projects as part of portfolio optimization, resulting in approximately $200 million in cost savings, while also restoring Decatur East operations and achieving the lowest injury rate in its history, highlighting a dual focus on safety and efficiency.
- Future Outlook: ADM's outlook for adjusted EPS in 2026 is projected between $3.60 and $4.25, indicating confidence in future growth despite ongoing market fluidity and policy uncertainties, emphasizing disciplined capital allocation strategies.
- Strategic Focus: The company is concentrating on five key areas including enhanced nutrition, biosolutions, precision fermentation, and decarbonization, introducing innovations like allergen-free pea protein, aiming to capture market opportunities and drive long-term growth through sustained investment.
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- Tech Stock Retreat: Following the release of an automation tool for lawyers by AI firm Anthropic, data service and software stocks retreated, with Thomson Reuters down over 17% and Intuit and FactSet both down more than 9%, reflecting a decline in investor confidence in the tech sector.
- Mining Stocks Surge: Gold prices rose by over 6% and silver prices soared by more than 13%, driving mining stocks higher, with Freeport McMoRan and Hecla Mining both up over 6%, indicating a rebound in investor demand for precious metals.
- Economic Data Impact: Despite strong US manufacturing data, the 10-year T-note yield climbed to a 1.5-week high of 4.30%, dampening expectations for further Fed rate cuts and leading to cautious investor sentiment that pressured some stocks.
See More
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- PayPal's Stock Plunge: PayPal Holdings saw its stock drop over 18%, significantly weighing on the Nasdaq 100, as its Q4 net revenue of $8.68 billion fell short of the $8.79 billion consensus, coupled with a CEO change that may impact investor confidence.
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