Barclays: Investors Underestimating Nvidia's Potential
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Mar 13 2026
0mins
Should l Buy NVDA?
Source: CNBC
- AI Spending Expectations: Barclays analysts believe the market is significantly underestimating the hyperscalers' AI spending needs in the coming years, with consensus capex for 2027 and 2028 projected to be at least $225 billion too low, indicating a buying opportunity for Nvidia.
- Earnings Report Overlooked: Despite Nvidia's strong earnings report and guidance released in late February, investors largely ignored this information, resulting in the stock trading sideways since December, with a year-to-date decline of less than 1%.
- Capex Cycle: Analysts noted that the hyperscale capex cycle is expected to last until at least 2028, with Nvidia currently trading at a P/E ratio of approximately 17.5x, reflecting pessimism about future earnings power; however, this penalty seems excessive.
- New Hardware Driving Growth: Barclays anticipates that total capex for Nvidia will rise further as tech giants shift to next-generation hardware, particularly with new offerings like the Vera Rubin and Feynman chip families, which will push average selling prices above older models, benefiting AI semiconductor stocks.
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Analyst Views on NVDA
Wall Street analysts forecast NVDA stock price to rise
41 Analyst Rating
39 Buy
1 Hold
1 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 215.200
Low
200.00
Averages
264.97
High
352.00
Current: 215.200
Low
200.00
Averages
264.97
High
352.00
About NVDA
NVIDIA Corporation is an artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure company. The Company is engaged in accelerated computing to help solve the challenging computational problems. Its segments include Compute & Networking and Graphics. The Compute & Networking segment includes its Data Center accelerated computing and networking platforms and AI solutions and software, and automotive platforms and autonomous and electric vehicle solutions, including software. The Graphics segment includes GeForce GPUs for gaming and personal computers (PCs), and Quadro/NVIDIA RTX GPUs for enterprise workstation graphics. Its technology stack includes the foundational NVIDIA CUDA development platform that runs on all NVIDIA GPUs, as well as hundreds of domain-specific software libraries, frameworks, algorithms, software development kits (SDKs), and application programming interfaces (APIs). Its platforms address four markets, which include Data Center, Gaming, Professional Visualization, and Automotive.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Strong Market Demand: The anticipated market opportunity for Nvidia's Blackwell and Rubin systems has surged to over $1 trillion, as CEO Jensen Huang highlights a significant increase from the previous $500 billion forecast, showcasing the rapid evolution of AI infrastructure demand.
- Infrastructure Investment: Nvidia plans to invest up to $2.1 billion in data center operator Irena to deploy 5 gigawatts of AI infrastructure, demonstrating the company's proactive strategy to meet the escalating computational needs of AI workloads.
- Diversified Customer Base: While the top five hyperscalers account for 60% of Nvidia's business, the remaining 40% comes from enterprises, sovereign AI projects, and edge computing, providing resilience against spending slowdowns in any single industry segment.
See More
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- Strategic Shift: Leadership highlighted the transition to consumption-based pricing and the successful rollout of its AI Work Platform as key drivers, which not only enhanced customer satisfaction but also strengthened competitive positioning in the market.
- Operational Leverage: CFO Eliran Glazer noted that internal AI productivity gains allow the company to scale revenue without increasing headcount, indicating a higher operational efficiency achieved in a complex environment.
- Strong Cash Flow: The firm generated over $102 million in adjusted free cash flow, providing substantial capital to further invest in autonomous AI agents, thereby enhancing the sustainability of future growth.
See More
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- Helium Price Surge: Following Iranian drone strikes on Qatar's Ras Laffan Industrial City, which accounts for one-third of global helium supply, spot prices doubled within weeks, directly impacting semiconductor manufacturers' cost structures.
- Supply Chain Vulnerability: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company consumes approximately 500,000 cubic feet of helium annually and has begun monitoring its inventory, while Samsung and SK Hynix have entered a six-month inventory window, highlighting their heavy reliance on helium supply amid market uncertainty.
- Industry Giants Benefit: Air Products and Chemicals and Linde PLC hold pricing power during helium shortages, with Air Products reporting Q1 2026 results that exceeded expectations and raising its full-year adjusted EPS guidance to $13.00-$13.25, reflecting strong market demand.
- Ongoing Geopolitical Risks: Despite a fragile ceasefire brokered in April, Iran's frequent attacks on commercial vessels indicate that the helium supply chain risks have not dissipated, necessitating investor attention on the long-term stability of this critical infrastructure.
See More
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- AI Momentum Continues: Dan Ives from Wedbush Securities predicts that the Nasdaq will rise to 30,000 points within the next year, driven by a strong earnings season that boosts enthusiasm for AI stocks, reflecting optimistic market expectations for AI infrastructure development.
- Surge in Chip Demand: Ives highlights a 10-1 demand-supply ratio for chips, indicating unprecedented demand for memory chips, which further validates the bullish thesis on AI and suggests that we are still in the early days of the AI revolution.
- Strong Semiconductor Performance: Over the past month, the Nasdaq PHLX Semiconductor Sector Index has soared by 38%, with major companies like Intel, Nvidia, Apple, and Alphabet achieving double-digit growth, showcasing strong investor confidence in these tech giants.
- Optimistic Market Outlook: While Michael Burry warns that the market's fixation on AI may resemble the final stages of the dot-com bubble, Ives remains bullish on the AI market for the next two years, viewing it as a memory super-cycle and advising investors to focus on multiple subsectors including chips, software, and infrastructure.
See More
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- Strong Earnings Expectations: Over 400 S&P 500 companies have reported earnings, with 84% exceeding expectations; if this beat rate continues through the reporting period, it would mark the highest rate since Q2 2021, indicating a significant improvement in market profitability.
- Significant Earnings Growth: These companies have posted a remarkable 25.6% year-over-year earnings growth, far surpassing the five-year average of 7.1%, showcasing robust economic recovery and bolstering investor confidence in future market performance.
- Oil Price Impact on Outlook: Although high oil prices due to the U.S.-Iran conflict could dampen future earnings, with West Texas Intermediate futures soaring 71% this year, Yardeni remains optimistic about the economy and consumer resilience, as analysts are also raising earnings estimates for the upcoming quarters.
See More
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- CoreWeave Price Target Raised: Barclays increased CoreWeave's price target from $106 to $120, noting strong first-quarter earnings that exceeded expectations; however, light guidance for Q2 led to an 11% drop in shares, highlighting the tension between revenue growth and rising operating expenses.
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