Baldwin Insurance Group Inc: UBS Lowers Price Target from $44 to $40
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Mar 09 2026
0mins
Should l Buy BWIN?
Source: moomoo
Insurance Group Announcement: Baldwin Insurance Group has announced a reduction in its target price.
New Target Price: The target price has been cut from $44 to $40.
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Analyst Views on BWIN
Wall Street analysts forecast BWIN stock price to rise
6 Analyst Rating
2 Buy
4 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 20.070
Low
27.00
Averages
33.67
High
47.00
Current: 20.070
Low
27.00
Averages
33.67
High
47.00
About BWIN
The Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc. is an independent insurance distribution company. The Company’s business is divided into three operating groups: Insurance Advisory Solutions (IAS), Underwriting, Capacity & Technology Solutions (UCTS) and Mainstreet Insurance Solutions (MIS). The IAS operating group provides commercial risk management, employee benefits and private risk management solutions for businesses and high-net-worth individuals, as well as their families. The UCTS operating group consists of three distinct divisions: its MGA platform, MSI; its Capacity Solutions group, which consists of its reinsurance brokerage business, Juniper Re; its reinsurance MGA business, MultiStrat; and its captive management business; and the Captives. Through MSI, it manufactures proprietary, technology-enabled insurance products. The MIS operating group offers personal insurance, commercial insurance and life and health solutions to individuals and businesses in their communities.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Divergence in Commercial Insurance Market Trends
- Market Divergence: The Baldwin Group's Q1 2026 Market Pulse Report reveals a 7.1% decline in commercial property insurance pricing, marking the sharpest drop since Q4 2024, indicating intensified competition and excess supply in the market.
- Workers' Compensation Decline: Workers' compensation insurance pricing dipped further to -0.9%, continuing a slight downward trend, which underscores the increasing importance of risk assessment in the current market environment.
- Liability Insurance Fluctuations: General liability insurance pricing pulled back from 9.3% to 6.1%, reflecting ongoing pressures from social inflation and litigation trends that are impacting insurers' pricing strategies.
- Cyber Insurance Recovery: Cyber insurance pricing returned to positive at 1.1%, signaling early signs of market recovery amid rising threat activity, potentially providing new growth opportunities for insurers.
See More
Baldwin Insurance Group (BWIN.US) Officer Plans to Sell $4.36 Million in Common Stock via Form 144
Stock Sale Announcement: Krystyn Elizabeth, an officer at Baldwin Insurance Group (BWIN.US), plans to sell 202,000 shares of its common stock on May 6, with an estimated market value of approximately $4.36 million.
Reduction in Shareholding: Since March 6, 2026, Krystyn Elizabeth has reduced her shareholding in Baldwin Insurance Group by 119,999 shares, valued at around $2.55 million.
See More
Baldwin Insurance Group Q1 2026 Earnings Call Highlights
- Revenue and Profit Performance: Baldwin Insurance Group reported total revenue of $532 million in Q1 2026, with adjusted EBITDA of $137 million and an EBITDA margin of 26%, indicating stability in revenue growth and profitability.
- Cost and Revenue Synergies: To date, the company has realized over $34 million in cost synergies, representing nearly 80% of the three-year target of $43 million, while revenue synergies have grown to nearly $3 million, reflecting positive progress in integration and cross-selling efforts.
- Future Outlook and Guidance: The company expects Q2 revenue between $485 million and $495 million, with adjusted EBITDA anticipated between $113 million and $118 million, and despite market pressures, management remains optimistic about financial results in the second half of the year.
- Cash Flow and Leverage Status: Adjusted free cash flow for Q1 remained flat year-over-year at approximately $26 million, with a net leverage ratio of about 4.3x, demonstrating a cautious strategy in stock buybacks while maintaining financial flexibility.
See More
Baldwin Insurance Group Reports Strong Q2 Results with 11% Revenue Growth
- Significant Revenue Growth: Baldwin Insurance Group achieved an 11% organic revenue growth in Q2, with total revenue reaching $378.8 million, demonstrating the company's ability to maintain strong business performance amid market uncertainties, thereby reinforcing its market position.
- Adjusted EBITDA Improvement: Adjusted EBITDA rose by 14% to $85.5 million, with EBITDA margin expanding by 60 basis points year-over-year to 22.6%, indicating ongoing enhancements in operational efficiency and cost management that will support future profitability.
- Strong New Business Generation: The Insurance Advisory Solutions (IAS) segment saw sales velocity increase from 14% in Q1 to 22% in Q2, with year-to-date sales velocity at 18%, placing Baldwin in the top decile of the industry and showcasing its competitive edge in new business generation.
- Strategic Investment and Acquisition: The company completed the acquisition of Hippo's homebuilder distribution network, adding 8 new builder partners, which is expected to drive future revenue growth and enhance insurance capacity with builder partners, further expanding market share.
See More
Baldwin Insurance (BWIN) Q2 2025 Earnings Call Transcript
See More
Baldwin Insurance Group Reports Strong Q1 Earnings with Revenue Growth
- Earnings Performance: Baldwin Insurance Group reported a Q1 2025 non-GAAP EPS of $0.63, aligning with expectations, which indicates the company's stable profitability amidst market fluctuations.
- Revenue Growth: The company achieved revenue of $532.2 million, reflecting a 28.7% year-over-year increase, surpassing market expectations by $8.44 million, showcasing strong performance and rising customer demand in the insurance sector.
- Accelerated AI Integration: Following market disruptions driven by AI, Baldwin Insurance is accelerating its integration of AI technologies, aiming to enhance operational efficiency and customer service, thereby solidifying its competitive position.
- Future Revenue Target: The company has set an ambitious revenue target of $2 billion for 2026, demonstrating confidence in future growth and plans for expansion within the insurance industry.
See More
Divergence in Commercial Insurance Market Trends
- Market Divergence: The Baldwin Group's Q1 2026 Market Pulse Report reveals a 7.1% decline in commercial property insurance pricing, marking the sharpest drop since Q4 2024, indicating intensified competition and excess supply in the market.
- Workers' Compensation Decline: Workers' compensation insurance pricing dipped further to -0.9%, continuing a slight downward trend, which underscores the increasing importance of risk assessment in the current market environment.
- Liability Insurance Fluctuations: General liability insurance pricing pulled back from 9.3% to 6.1%, reflecting ongoing pressures from social inflation and litigation trends that are impacting insurers' pricing strategies.
- Cyber Insurance Recovery: Cyber insurance pricing returned to positive at 1.1%, signaling early signs of market recovery amid rising threat activity, potentially providing new growth opportunities for insurers.
See More
Baldwin Insurance Group (BWIN.US) Officer Plans to Sell $4.36 Million in Common Stock via Form 144
Stock Sale Announcement: Krystyn Elizabeth, an officer at Baldwin Insurance Group (BWIN.US), plans to sell 202,000 shares of its common stock on May 6, with an estimated market value of approximately $4.36 million.
Reduction in Shareholding: Since March 6, 2026, Krystyn Elizabeth has reduced her shareholding in Baldwin Insurance Group by 119,999 shares, valued at around $2.55 million.
See More
Baldwin Insurance Group Q1 2026 Earnings Call Highlights
- Revenue and Profit Performance: Baldwin Insurance Group reported total revenue of $532 million in Q1 2026, with adjusted EBITDA of $137 million and an EBITDA margin of 26%, indicating stability in revenue growth and profitability.
- Cost and Revenue Synergies: To date, the company has realized over $34 million in cost synergies, representing nearly 80% of the three-year target of $43 million, while revenue synergies have grown to nearly $3 million, reflecting positive progress in integration and cross-selling efforts.
- Future Outlook and Guidance: The company expects Q2 revenue between $485 million and $495 million, with adjusted EBITDA anticipated between $113 million and $118 million, and despite market pressures, management remains optimistic about financial results in the second half of the year.
- Cash Flow and Leverage Status: Adjusted free cash flow for Q1 remained flat year-over-year at approximately $26 million, with a net leverage ratio of about 4.3x, demonstrating a cautious strategy in stock buybacks while maintaining financial flexibility.
See More
Baldwin Insurance Group Reports Strong Q2 Results with 11% Revenue Growth
- Significant Revenue Growth: Baldwin Insurance Group achieved an 11% organic revenue growth in Q2, with total revenue reaching $378.8 million, demonstrating the company's ability to maintain strong business performance amid market uncertainties, thereby reinforcing its market position.
- Adjusted EBITDA Improvement: Adjusted EBITDA rose by 14% to $85.5 million, with EBITDA margin expanding by 60 basis points year-over-year to 22.6%, indicating ongoing enhancements in operational efficiency and cost management that will support future profitability.
- Strong New Business Generation: The Insurance Advisory Solutions (IAS) segment saw sales velocity increase from 14% in Q1 to 22% in Q2, with year-to-date sales velocity at 18%, placing Baldwin in the top decile of the industry and showcasing its competitive edge in new business generation.
- Strategic Investment and Acquisition: The company completed the acquisition of Hippo's homebuilder distribution network, adding 8 new builder partners, which is expected to drive future revenue growth and enhance insurance capacity with builder partners, further expanding market share.
See More
Baldwin Insurance (BWIN) Q2 2025 Earnings Call Transcript
See More
Baldwin Insurance Group Reports Strong Q1 Earnings with Revenue Growth
- Earnings Performance: Baldwin Insurance Group reported a Q1 2025 non-GAAP EPS of $0.63, aligning with expectations, which indicates the company's stable profitability amidst market fluctuations.
- Revenue Growth: The company achieved revenue of $532.2 million, reflecting a 28.7% year-over-year increase, surpassing market expectations by $8.44 million, showcasing strong performance and rising customer demand in the insurance sector.
- Accelerated AI Integration: Following market disruptions driven by AI, Baldwin Insurance is accelerating its integration of AI technologies, aiming to enhance operational efficiency and customer service, thereby solidifying its competitive position.
- Future Revenue Target: The company has set an ambitious revenue target of $2 billion for 2026, demonstrating confidence in future growth and plans for expansion within the insurance industry.
See More
