Analyst Upgrades Dow, Calls Capex Cut And Asset Sales Positive
Analyst Upgrade: Frank J. Mitsch upgraded Dow Inc. from Hold to Buy, forecasting a price of $35, following better-than-expected Q1 2025 sales and adjusted EPS results. The postponement of the Ft. Saskatchewan Path2Zero project is viewed positively for future capex savings.
Financial Concerns and Adjustments: Despite positive developments, Mitsch lowered 2025 EPS and EBITDA estimates due to anticipated negative free cash flow in early 2025, but expects a recovery in the second half driven by working capital inflows and cost reductions.
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- Price Increase Announcement: The DOW has stated that the price hike scheduled for April will now be 30 cents per pound.
- Market Impact: This adjustment may influence market dynamics and consumer pricing strategies moving forward.
Rising Plastic Prices: The price of plastics has significantly increased, impacting various industries reliant on these materials.
Supply Chain Disruptions: Ongoing supply chain issues, exacerbated by geopolitical tensions, are contributing to the rising costs and availability of plastics.
- Economic Blockade Warning: Sheikh Nawaf Al-Sabah, CEO of Kuwait Petroleum Corporation, stated that Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz constitutes an economic blockade against Gulf Arab oil producers, warning that the impact will be catastrophic and could trigger a domino effect on the global economy.
- Production Disruption: Kuwait has declared force majeure on its delivery contracts and has ramped down oil production, currently only supplying oil for domestic consumption, with a prior production level of 2.6 million barrels per day, making it the fifth-largest producer in OPEC.
- Global Supply Shortage: Al-Sabah emphasized that the 3 million barrels per day of emergency stocks from the International Energy Agency will do little to compensate for the production cuts in Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE, highlighting the far-reaching impact of the Strait's closure on the global supply chain.
- Agricultural Impact: With fertilizers from the Gulf unable to reach global markets, developing countries could see a 50% reduction in harvests, particularly as the planting season approaches, exacerbating difficulties in global food transportation.
- Energy Asset Damage: IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol reported that at least 40 energy assets across nine Middle Eastern countries have been 'severely or very severely' damaged since the onset of the Iran war, indicating that repairs will take considerable time and could lead to prolonged global energy supply disruptions.
- Supply Chain Disruption: The conflict has severely disrupted energy trade flows through the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz, with the IEA declaring this as the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market, resulting in a roughly 20% reduction in liquefied natural gas supply since February 28.
- Economic Impact Assessment: Birol noted that the fallout from the Iran war is equivalent to the combined effects of the two major oil crises of the 1970s and the 2022 gas crisis, with interruptions affecting not only oil and gas but also critical economic sectors like petrochemicals, fertilizers, and helium, which could have serious consequences for the global economy.
- Strategic Solutions: Birol emphasized that reopening the Strait of Hormuz is the 'single most important' solution to the global energy crisis, particularly as Asian countries are at the forefront of the energy shock, and the IEA is prepared to follow up its historic release of 400 million barrels of oil to stabilize the market if necessary.
- Price Surge: The average price of menstrual products has risen nearly 40% since 2020, from approximately $5.37 to $7.43 per unit, squeezing consumer budgets and impacting purchasing decisions.
- Sales Dynamics: While dollar sales of menstrual products grew nearly 30% during the same period, sales volume has decreased by about 6% since 2022, indicating a trend of consumers seeking alternatives due to high prices.
- Tariff Impact: In 2025, the U.S. collected $115 million in tariffs on menstrual products containing cotton, a significant increase from $42 million in 2020, further exacerbating the economic burden on consumers.
- Rise of Reusables: An increasing number of consumers are turning to reusable menstrual products, such as cups and underwear, due to their environmental benefits and lower long-term costs, which is expected to continue exerting pressure on traditional single-use product sales.









