US-Iran talks face disagreements; Trump threatens Strait blockade, markets react negatively.

Trump Threatens Control Over Strait of Hormuz Amid Failed US-Iran Negotiations

Following the breakdown of negotiations between the US and Iran, former President Trump has threatened that if Iran does not compromise, the US military will take control of the Strait of Hormuz, effectively cutting off Iran's oil exports. Iran insists that passage through the strait must be permitted by them, leading to a fundamental disagreement over control.

Current Situation in the Strait

Currently, passage through the Strait of Hormuz is extremely limited, with all vessels under Iranian surveillance. The negotiations have ended without results, with Iran attributing the failure to "US greed and ambition." US Vice President Vance stated that the US had shown flexibility and sincerity during the talks, which lasted approximately 21 hours.

Key Issues in Negotiations

The breakdown of talks can be attributed to three main issues:

• Control of the Strait of Hormuz
• Iran's stockpile of nearly 900 pounds of weapon-grade enriched uranium
• Iran's demand for the release of approximately $27 billion in overseas assets for post-war reconstruction, which the US has rejected.

Despite the lack of agreement, analysts note that the lengthy discussions indicate some positive momentum.

AI Sector Dynamics: Anthropic Surpasses OpenAI

Anthropic is reportedly outpacing OpenAI in several key areas:

• Revenue: Anthropic's annual revenue has surpassed $30 billion, exceeding OpenAI's.
• Capital: Private valuations for Anthropic have outstripped those of OpenAI, with strong demand in the secondary market.
• Market Share: Anthropic has gained significant market share in enterprise solutions like code generation.

Oil Market Volatility

As US-Iran negotiations falter, a fierce competition for oil is emerging. The futures market is betting on a ceasefire, while spot oil prices have surged, with Brent crude reaching a historical peak of $144 per barrel. Analysts warn that if conflicts persist into June, oil prices could exceed $200.

Market Reactions and Economic Indicators

Morgan Stanley suggests that the current market optimism regarding the AI revolution may still underestimate its potential impact. The demand for computing power is outpacing supply, with a projected power shortfall of 55 gigawatts for US data centers from 2025 to 2028.

US Economic Data and Federal Reserve Insights

The US core CPI for March was slightly below expectations, but energy price pressures remain a concern. The Federal Reserve is looking for signs of energy price stabilization.

Upcoming Earnings Reports

This week marks the beginning of the earnings season for major banks, including JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, Bank of America, and Citigroup. In the tech sector, Netflix is also expected to report its first-quarter earnings.

Stock Market Performance

On April 10, US stocks experienced slight fluctuations, with the S&P 500 down 0.11% and the Nasdaq up 0.35%. Notable tech stocks like Broadcom, AMD, and Nvidia saw gains.

Notable Developments in the AI and Tech Sectors

• Palantir: Trump endorsed Palantir, highlighting its capabilities, while investor Michael Burry maintained a bearish stance.
• Apple: Despite a global smartphone shipment decline of 6%, Apple led the market with a 5% increase in Q1 2026.
• CoreWeave: The cloud infrastructure company saw strong demand for its high-yield bonds, reflecting ongoing investor enthusiasm for AI-related assets.

Hong Kong Market Movements

On April 10, southbound funds sold off HK stocks, with Alibaba and Guotai Junan International seeing significant net purchases.

Conclusion

The geopolitical landscape remains tense with the US-Iran situation, while the AI sector continues to attract significant investment. Market participants are advised to monitor developments closely, particularly in energy and technology sectors.