US-Iran talks continue; S&P recovers losses; GPT-6 rumored to launch today.

US-Iran Ceasefire Negotiations: Preparations for Second Round of Talks

Reports indicate that the Trump administration is discussing arrangements for a second round of face-to-face negotiations between the US and Iran before the ceasefire deadline. Geneva and Islamabad are potential locations for these talks. The next round of "direct negotiations" may take place on the 16th in Islamabad, Pakistan.

Key Developments

• Iranian President emphasizes negotiation sincerity but criticizes US demands as excessive.
• French President suggests including the Lebanon issue in the ceasefire framework.
• Hezbollah rejects disarmament and claims it will continue to resist Israel, leading to significant uncertainty in the situation.

The progress of ceasefire negotiations will directly impact oil prices and global risk sentiment.

US-Iran Negotiation Progress

Vice President Vance stated in a Fox News interview that substantial progress has been made in negotiations with Iran. He mentioned that the ball is in Tehran's court regarding further talks and warned that the situation could change if Iran does not make progress on opening the Strait of Hormuz.

Negotiation Stalemate

Vance revealed that the US delegation withdrew from negotiations upon discovering that Iranian representatives lacked final authorization, indicating that any progress requires approval from Iran's Supreme Leader. He stressed that the Strait of Hormuz must be fully open and that Iran must abandon its pursuit of nuclear weapons to become a normal state.

Energy Market Tensions

The ongoing stalemate in negotiations has heightened tensions in the energy market, significantly affecting global commodities and risk assets. The International Energy Agency (IEA) warned that energy shocks in April could be more severe than in March, with the IMF stating that a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz would have a major impact on growth and inflation.

Stock Market Reactions

Despite disturbances from the US-Iran situation, US stock indices rose collectively, with the S&P 500 recovering all losses for the year and reaching a new high since the outbreak of war in late February.

• S&P 500: +1.02% to 6886.24
• Nasdaq: +1.23% to 23183.74
• Dow Jones: +0.63% to 48218.25

Notable Stock Movements

• Nvidia: +0.36%
• Google-A: +1.28%
• Apple: -0.49%
• Microsoft: +3.64%
• Tesla: +0.99%

The semiconductor sector saw significant gains, with Micron Technology and Western Digital also rising.

Private Credit Market Pressures

The Federal Reserve has begun inquiries into the risks associated with private credit exposure in the banking sector, signaling a strong regulatory response to assess the potential spread of the crisis to the broader financial system.

Hong Kong Stock Market Activity

On April 13, net purchases of Hong Kong stocks reached HKD 22.49 billion, with Xiaomi and CNOOC receiving significant inflows, while Tencent faced substantial outflows.

Upcoming Financial Reports

Major companies, including Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, and JPMorgan, are set to release their earnings reports soon, which will be closely watched by investors.