Bitcoin Price Movements Closely Linked to Fed Liquidity Adjustments
- Liquidity and Bitcoin Volatility: Alphractal's research indicates a strong correlation between the Federal Reserve's Reverse Repo Facility and Treasury General Account liquidity changes and Bitcoin price volatility, with RRP and TGA balances increasing from $2 trillion to $7 trillion between 2020 and 2021, propelling Bitcoin prices from $10,000 to $69,000.
- Impact of Tightening Policies: During the Fed's tightening policies in 2022, Bitcoin's price plummeted from $69,000 to $15,500, while between 2023 and 2024, a shift of funds into short-term Treasuries and a decline in RRP balances corresponded with Bitcoin's recovery to $73,000, highlighting liquidity's profound impact on the cryptocurrency market.
- Future Price Predictions: Alphractal anticipates Bitcoin could peak at approximately $126,200 by October 2025, despite current liquidity indicators showing signs of strain, suggesting that market participants should closely monitor Fed policy changes and their potential effects on Bitcoin.
- Historical Market Cycle Analysis: VirtualBacon's analysis reveals that contrary to market expectations of dramatic downturns, historical data shows that the 2015 and 2018 cycles did not experience significant capitulation, emphasizing the role of the 200-week simple moving average as a crucial support level in the market.
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Technical Analysis for BTC
Technical Sentiment Analysis for Bitcoin (BTC). As of , Bitcoin (BTC) is exhibiting a Strong sell technical sentiment. Our proprietary analysis, which aggregates 5 technical signals, shows that 0 indicators are flashing buy, while 5 are indicating sell.
Momentum Indicators: RSI, MACD & Overbought/Oversold Status. Currently, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) for BTC stands at -, which suggests a Neutral condition. Meanwhile, the MACD (12, 26) indicator is at -, providing a Neutral signal for short-term momentum. Other oscillators like the Stochastic Oscillator at - and the Commodity Channel Index (CCI) at - further confirm a - outlook for the crypto.
Support, Resistance & Moving Averages. From a structural perspective, BTC is trading below its 60-day moving average of $- and below its 200-day long-term moving average of $-. Key price levels to watch include the immediate resistance at $- and strong support at $-. A break above $- could signal a bull continuation, while falling below $- may test the next Fibonacci floor at $-.
Bitcoin (BTC) Support & Resistance Level
| Name | S3 | S2 | S1 | Pivot Points | R1 | R2 | R3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Classic | 70328.555 | 72309.078 | 74638.945 | 76619.468 | 78949.335 | 80929.858 | 83259.725 |
| Fibonacci | 72309.078 | 73955.647 | 74972.899 | 76619.468 | 78266.037 | 79283.289 | 80929.858 |
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