Bitcoin Liquidity Linked to Fed Trends Amid Market Cycles
- Liquidity and Bitcoin Prices: Alphractal's analysis indicates that since 2020, the Federal Reserve's reverse repo and Treasury account activities have closely correlated with Bitcoin price cycles, where rising liquidity often supported Bitcoin rallies from $10,000 to $69,000, highlighting liquidity's significant impact on the market.
- Precursor to Market Corrections: In 2022, signs of tightening liquidity appeared weeks before Bitcoin's decline from $69,000 to nearly $15,500, suggesting that changes in liquidity can serve as critical indicators for market volatility, prompting investors to monitor liquidity metrics to mitigate risks.
- Bear Market Bottom Expectations: VirtualBacon's analysis challenges the prevailing market expectation of a final capitulation event in Bitcoin's bear market, noting that in both 2015 and 2019, Bitcoin stabilized shortly after its first major corrections, implying that the market may bottom out earlier than anticipated.
- Technical Support Levels: Bitcoin's 200-week simple moving average is currently near $61,000, with projections suggesting it could rise to $63,000 or $64,000 within the next two months, establishing a crucial technical support level that investors should closely monitor for potential market reversals.
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Technical Analysis for BTC
Technical Sentiment Analysis for Bitcoin (BTC). As of , Bitcoin (BTC) is exhibiting a Strong sell technical sentiment. Our proprietary analysis, which aggregates 5 technical signals, shows that 0 indicators are flashing buy, while 5 are indicating sell.
Momentum Indicators: RSI, MACD & Overbought/Oversold Status. Currently, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) for BTC stands at -, which suggests a Neutral condition. Meanwhile, the MACD (12, 26) indicator is at -, providing a Neutral signal for short-term momentum. Other oscillators like the Stochastic Oscillator at - and the Commodity Channel Index (CCI) at - further confirm a - outlook for the crypto.
Support, Resistance & Moving Averages. From a structural perspective, BTC is trading below its 60-day moving average of $- and below its 200-day long-term moving average of $-. Key price levels to watch include the immediate resistance at $- and strong support at $-. A break above $- could signal a bull continuation, while falling below $- may test the next Fibonacci floor at $-.
Bitcoin (BTC) Support & Resistance Level
| Name | S3 | S2 | S1 | Pivot Points | R1 | R2 | R3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Classic | 70328.555 | 72309.078 | 74638.945 | 76619.468 | 78949.335 | 80929.858 | 83259.725 |
| Fibonacci | 72309.078 | 73955.647 | 74972.899 | 76619.468 | 78266.037 | 79283.289 | 80929.858 |
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