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AGM Should I Buy

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Intellectia

Should You Buy Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corp (AGM) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion
Hold
Latest Price
156.610
1 Day change
-2.54%
52 Week Range
210.640
Analysis Updated At
2026/03/05
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Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corp (AGM) is not a strong buy at the moment for a beginner, long-term investor. The technical indicators suggest a neutral to bearish trend, options data reflects a cautious sentiment, and the company's financial performance shows declining net income and EPS. While analysts maintain an outperform rating, the lack of strong positive catalysts and no recent AI or SwingMax trading signals make this stock a hold for now.

Technical Analysis

The MACD is negative and contracting, RSI is neutral at 50.647, and moving averages are bearish (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5). The stock is trading near its pivot level of 157.268, with resistance at 164.923 and support at 149.613. Overall, the technical indicators suggest a neutral to bearish trend.

Options Data

Bearish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Neutral
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

The high Open Interest Put-Call Ratio indicates a bearish sentiment, while the Option Volume Put-Call Ratio of 1.0 reflects balanced trading activity.

Technical Summary

StrongSellSellNeutralBuyStrongBuydotted line Image
Sell
10
Buy
0

Positive Catalysts

  • Analysts maintain an outperform rating, and the gross margin increased by 2.42% YoY in the latest quarter.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

  • Net income and EPS dropped significantly (-20.08% and -20.13% YoY, respectively). No recent news or congress trading data. Technical indicators are neutral to bearish, and options data reflects cautious sentiment.

Financial Performance

In Q4 2025, revenue increased by 4.00% YoY to $420.23M, but net income dropped to $40.64M (-20.08% YoY), and EPS fell to 3.69 (-20.13% YoY). Gross margin improved slightly to 25.77% (+2.42% YoY).

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Keefe Bruyette recently lowered the price target from $219 to $215 while maintaining an Outperform rating. Analysts remain constructive on the stock despite the price target adjustment.

Wall Street analysts forecast AGM stock price to rise
1 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast AGM stock price to rise
1 Buy
0 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 160.690
sliders
Low
219
Averages
219
High
219
Current: 160.690
sliders
Low
219
Averages
219
High
219
Keefe Bruyette
Outperform
downgrade
$219 -> $215
AI Analysis
2026-02-23
Reason
Keefe Bruyette
Price Target
$219 -> $215
AI Analysis
2026-02-23
downgrade
Outperform
Reason
Keefe Bruyette lowered the firm's price target on Federal Agricultural Mortgage to $215 from $219 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares.
Piper Sandler
Piper Sandler
Overweight
maintain
$9 -> $10
2025-12-22
Reason
Piper Sandler
Piper Sandler
Price Target
$9 -> $10
2025-12-22
maintain
Overweight
Reason
Piper Sandler raised the firm's price target on AG Mortgage to $10 from $9 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares ahead of Q4 results for the firm's mortgage finance coverage. The sector backdrop has shifted positively, driven by 30-year rates falling to 6.2% from 7%-plus highs earlier in the year and material tightening in agency spreads. While the market has not yet fully "normalized," momentum is building, Piper argues. Mortgage application volumes are rising, led by an 18% sequential and 100%-plus year-over-year surge in refinance activity. Additionally, GSE reform is likely to return to the spotlight given the administration's push for a deal under President Trump and FHFA Director Bill Pulte, it adds.
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