ABEV Should I Buy
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Ambev SA (ABEV) is not a strong buy for a beginner investor with a long-term horizon at this time. While the stock has shown some positive technical indicators and operational efficiency, the recent financial performance, hedge fund selling trends, and mixed analyst ratings suggest that waiting for a better entry point may be prudent. The lack of strong proprietary trading signals further supports a hold recommendation.
The stock's MACD is positive at 0.00608, indicating a bullish trend, and the moving averages (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200) are aligned bullishly. RSI_6 at 63.175 is neutral, and the stock is trading above its pivot point of 3.049, suggesting moderate upward momentum. However, no strong breakout signals are present.
Ambev's normalized EBITDA grew by 1.3% in Q4 2025, reflecting effective cost control and operational efficiency. The company is optimistic about 2026, with plans to enhance consumer engagement during the FIFA World Cup.
Hedge funds are aggressively selling, with a 9796.69% increase in selling activity over the last quarter. Analysts have mixed views, with one downgrade citing overvaluation.
In Q4 2025, Ambev's revenue dropped by 8.24% YoY to R$24.81 billion, net income fell by 10.94% YoY to R$4.35 billion, and EPS declined by 9.68% YoY to R$0.28. Gross margin also dropped slightly to 52.63%.
Barclays recently raised its price target to $3 from $2.50, citing profitability-led growth. However, Bernstein downgraded the stock to Market Perform, citing overvaluation and recommending investors wait for a more attractive entry point.
