ABEV Earnings Prediction
The chart below shows how ABEV performed 10 days before and after its earnings report, based on data from the past quarters. Typically, ABEV sees a -1.74% change in stock price 10 days leading up to the earnings, and a +4.74% change 10 days following the report. On the earnings day itself, the stock moves by +0.63%. This data can give you a slight idea of what to expect for the next quarter's release.
ABEV Key Earning Data
2024/Q4
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ABEV Earnings Analysis
Ambev SA Corporation (ABEV.N) Earnings Conference Call
Positive
EBITDA Growth Performance: Consolidated EBITDA grew by 37% over the past five years, demonstrating strong financial performance.
Free Cash Flow Generation: Generated nearly R$65 billion in free cash flow to equity while investing approximately R$30 billion in CapEx and R$33 billion in sales and marketing.
Beer Market Share Growth: Top line momentum was maintained with beer gaining or maintaining share of trout in the majority of top 10 markets, with beer holding over 60% share of trout.
Brand Health Improvement: Volumes excluding Argentina grew by 1.4%, with mega brands increasing by 7.6%, indicating strong brand health.
Monthly Active Buyers Growth: BEES, the B2B platform, achieved 1.3 million monthly active buyers, a 14% increase from last year, showcasing digital transformation success.
Order Fulfillment Growth: Zé Delivery in Brazil fulfilled over 66 million orders, a 10% increase from 2023, enhancing consumer convenience.
Consolidated EBITDA Growth: EBITDA growth with margin expansion in all business units, delivering double-digit consolidated EBITDA growth for the second consecutive year.
Free Cash Flow Improvement: Generated nearly R$18 billion of free cash flow to equity, a 37% improvement versus last year, indicating strong cash generation capabilities.
Share Buyback and Dividends: Executed approximately 45% of the current share buyback program and approved R$2 billion in intermediary dividends to be paid in April, reflecting strong capital allocation strategy.
Brazil Beer Industry Resilience: In Brazil, beer industry remained resilient with full year volumes increasing by 0.6%, driven by market share gains, indicating strong competitive positioning.
Negative
Profitability Challenges: Normalized profit declined by 2.3% despite EBITDA growth, indicating challenges in profitability.
Tax Rate Increase: The effective tax rate increased significantly, with nearly 60% of net value added going to taxes, up from 53% the previous year.
Decline in Return on Capital: Return on invested capital declined to 18.6%, suggesting pressure on profitability despite better asset turnover.
Brazil Beer Industry Decline: The beer industry in Brazil experienced a decline in Q4, primarily due to adverse weather conditions affecting consumption occasions.
Challenging Consumer Environment: In Argentina, the overall consumer environment remained challenging, with the beer industry down in low 20s, impacting performance.
Volume Decline in Canada: Total volumes in Canada declined by 3.1% for the year, despite some positive performance in the fourth quarter.
Rising COGS Forecast: The company anticipates cash COGS per hectoliter in Brazil beer to grow between 5.5% and 8.5% in 2025, indicating rising costs ahead.
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ABEV Earning Call Sentiment
Ambev S.A. (ABEV) Q4 2024 Earnings Call Transcript
ABEV.N
6.03%Positive
The earnings call presents mixed signals. While there are positives like an increase in EBITDA, free cash flow, and shareholder returns, challenges such as rising costs, declining Skol volumes, and tax burdens impact sentiment negatively. The Q&A reveals concerns about competition and unclear management responses, which may temper investor enthusiasm. Overall, the balance of positive and negative factors suggests a neutral market reaction.
