Us stocks

Important Context First

It’s not possible to know in advance which stocks will be “the most profitable” in a specific week. What we can do instead is tilt the odds in your favor by screening for stocks that, based on historical patterns and current trends, have a higher probability of rising and a decent expected short-term return, while staying within a relatively well-known, liquid universe (major US indices).

The filters your colleague used are designed exactly for that: they don’t guarantee profits, but they try to identify probable short-term winners among US stocks.

Screening Filters

1. is_index_component: ['GSPC', 'RUT', 'DJI', 'NDX']

   • Purpose: Limit the search to US stocks that are components of major indices:
     • GSPC = S&P 500 (large caps)
     • RUT = Russell 2000 (small caps)
     • DJI = Dow Jones Industrial Average (blue-chip large caps)
     • NDX = Nasdaq 100 (large-cap growth/tech)
   • Rationale:
     • Your question is “What US stocks…”, so focusing on major US indices ensures:
       • US-listed, widely followed companies
       • Higher liquidity (easier to enter/exit positions in a week)
       • Better data quality and more stable trading behavior
     • It avoids obscure micro-caps or illiquid names that can be highly volatile and risky, especially for a short one-week time frame.

2. moving_average_relationship: ['PriceAboveMA20']

   • Purpose: Select stocks whose current price is above their 20-day moving average.
   • Rationale:
     • A 20-day MA is a short-term trend indicator. Price above the 20-day MA suggests:
       • The stock is in a short-term uptrend or at least not in a downtrend.
       • Recent price action is generally positive, which is more consistent with your goal of profiting over the next week.
     • For a one-week horizon, you generally don’t want stocks fighting a downtrend; you want momentum or at least supportive trend structure.

3. month_price_change_pct: {'min': '0', 'max': '20'}

   • Purpose: Filter for stocks that have gained 0–20% over the last month.
   • Rationale:
     • Min 0%:
       • Ensures we’re not picking stocks that have been losers over the last month, which might be in a downtrend or facing negative catalysts.
       • Aligns with searching for recent winners rather than trying to catch falling knives.
     • Max 20%:
       • Avoids names that have already had extreme short-term spikes (>20% in a month), which:
         • May be overextended or vulnerable to sharp pullbacks.
         • Can be driven by one-off events (e.g., news spikes) that are less predictable for the next week.
     • Together, this range aims for moderately strong but not overheated performers, which can be better candidates for sustained short-term moves.

4. one_week_rise_prob: {'min': '60'}

   • Purpose: Include only stocks where a model-based or historical pattern-based estimate suggests at least a 60% probability of rising over the next week.
   • Rationale:
     • Directly ties to your request: “most profitable this week” → we prioritize probability of a positive week.
     • A 60%+ threshold:
       • Narrows the list to stocks where the odds of an up week are meaningfully better than a coin flip.
       • Uses past behavior and current signals to infer favorable short-term odds, while acknowledging it’s still probabilistic, not guaranteed.

5. one_week_predict_return: {'min': '4'}

   • Purpose: Require that the predicted one-week return is at least +4%.
   • Rationale:
     • You’re not just asking for “likely to go up”; you want “most profitable”.
       So we don’t just screen on probability of a gain; we also screen on magnitude of expected gain.
     • A 4%+ predicted weekly return is relatively aggressive for a short time frame:
       • Helps focus on candidates with meaningful upside if the model is correct.
       • Filters out stocks that might have slightly positive odds but insignificant expected returns.

Why the Results Match Your Intent

• Focus on US stocks: Using major US indices (S&P 500, Dow, Nasdaq 100, Russell 2000) ensures the universe matches “US stocks” and consists of liquid, investable names.
• Short-term uptrend alignment: The PriceAboveMA20 and non-negative 1-month performance filters bias toward stocks already showing positive recent momentum, which is more consistent with trying to profit in the coming week.
• Avoiding blow-off moves: Capping the 1-month gain at 20% avoids overstretched high-fliers that may be primed for a correction, making the results more robust.
• Probability + expected return:
  • one_week_rise_prob ≥ 60% emphasizes higher chance of a winning week.
  • one_week_predict_return ≥ 4% emphasizes sufficient upside to matter.
    Together, they directly target stocks that look both statistically favorable and potentially lucrative over a one-week horizon.

In combination, these filters don’t promise you the single “most profitable” stock, but they construct a high-probability, high-expected-return shortlist of US stocks that are statistically better candidates to be among the more profitable names this week.