Exxon Mobil Corp (XOM) FY2025Q2 Earning Prediction
Exxon Mobil Corp (XOM) is set to release its FY2025Q2 earnings performance on 08/01 04:00:00 in Pre-Market trading. Consensus forecasts predict a revenue of 80.00B and an earnings per share (EPS) of 1.49 for the FY2025Q2. With Intellectia's exclusive AI algorithms, users can predict whether the earnings will beat or miss expectations before the report drops. Leverage this powerful tool to strategize and position your trades ahead of the earnings release!
AI Earnings Prediction
ExxonMobil's earnings are expected to miss consensus estimates due to lower oil and gas prices and weaker refining margins.
Scenario Analysis
Key Indicators Forecast
No data
Prediction Logic & Rational
The Fact Data points to significant headwinds in core operational metrics:
Negative Oil/Gas Price Impact: Exxon's SEC filing (July 7) estimates Q2 losses of $ 1.2B–$ 0.8B from oil and $ 0.7B–$ 0.3B from gas due to declining prices. This directly impacts upstream profitability and revenue.
Downstream Weakness: Piper Sandler and RBC Capital highlight lower refining margins and energy product contributions, which are critical to Exxon’s earnings.
Divided Analyst Views: While some banks raised targets on cost discipline (e.g., TD Cowen’s $128 target), others like HSBC and RBC Capital cited oil price volatility and downstream challenges as risks.
Mixed Strategic Developments: Positive catalysts (Angola offshore contract, FTC’s Pioneer ruling) are long-term or marginal compared to immediate price/margin pressures.
Tactical Strategy Recommendations
- Options Play: Buy August $110 puts to hedge against downside from a revenue/EPS miss.
- Pairs Trade: Short XOM vs. refiners with better margin visibility (e.g., Valero).
- Post-Earnings Entry: If results miss but guidance maintains cost-saving targets, consider long-term calls on dips.
Rationale: The market has partially priced in oil price weakness (XOM up 6.5% vs. S&P +13.2%), but downstream risks and subdued demand create asymmetric downside.
Earnings Surprise Analysis
XOM Transcript
The earnings call highlights strong production growth, technological advancements, and strategic acquisitions, suggesting a positive outlook. The Q&A reveals confidence in market strategies and financial health, though modest dividend growth and cautious inorganic activity may temper enthusiasm. Overall, the positive factors outweigh the negatives, indicating a likely stock price increase in the short term.
The earnings call highlights strong financial performance, strategic project startups, and technological advancements. The Q&A section reveals confidence in growth, particularly in the Permian and Guyana, with emphasis on innovation and efficiency. While some concerns about cost guidance and unclear responses exist, the overall sentiment is positive, driven by shareholder returns, promising project pipelines, and strategic cost management. The lack of market cap data limits precise prediction, but the positive outlook suggests a stock price increase of 2% to 8% over the next two weeks.
XOM Slides
XOM Report
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Exxon Mobil Corp FY2025Q2 Earnings Release Date and Time?
Exxon Mobil Corp (XOM) is scheduled to release its FY2025Q2 earnings report onAug 1, 2025, Pre-Market(approximately 4:00 PM ET). This timing allows investors to react during after-hours trading, with a conference call typically following shortly after.
What Are the Consensus Forecasts for Exxon Mobil Corp FY2025Q2 Revenue and EPS?
Analysts' consensus predicts 80.00B in revenue and an EPS of 1.00 for Exxon Mobil Corp's FY2025Q2.
What Does Intellectia's AI Predict for Exxon Mobil Corp FY2025Q2 Earnings?
Intellectia's exclusive AI algorithms forecast a Miss forExxon Mobil Corp's FY2025Q2 earnings, with a prediction date of Aug 1, 2025. Exxon Mobil Corp ExxonMobil's earnings are expected to miss consensus estimates due to lower oil and gas prices and weaker refining margins.
How Can I Use This Earnings Prediction to Trade XOM Stock?
Leverage Intellectia's AI forecast to position trades ahead of theAug 1, 2025 release—consider calls for a beat scenario or protective puts for misses. Focus on pre-market volatility, and use the scenario probabilities to build strategies around revenue and guidance updates.
How Accurate Is Intellectia's AI for Earnings Predictions Like Exxon Mobil Corp FY2025Q2?
Intellectia's predictions are backed by rigorous backtesting, showing a high hit rate for Beat and Miss calls compared to traditional analysis. While no forecast is 100% certain, we provide probability-based scenarios (e.g., 50% chance of a *Beat*) and detailed rationales to help you make informed decisions. Combine our insights with your strategy for the best results—it's like having a co-pilot for earnings season! Empowering users to strategize trades before reports drop.
How does AI Earnings Prediction generate its forecasts?
AI Earnings Prediction uses advanced Large Language Models (LLMs) to analyze a wealth of data, including past earnings transcripts, real-time market sentiment, analyst insights, and company news from the last three months. It focuses on key indicators like revenue, EPS, and margins to predict whether a company will *Beat*, *Miss*, or remain Neutral relative to market expectations. Think of it as a super-smart analyst crunching numbers and news 24/7 to give you a trading edge!
When are the predictions available, and how often are they updated?
Predictions are generated two days before a company’s earnings release (e.g., 5:00 PM ET on Feb 13 for a Feb 15 report) to capture the latest market and company data. They’re updated in real-time if significant news breaks, ensuring you get fresh insights.
Can I use AI Earnings Prediction for all types of stocks?
Currently, AI Earnings Prediction focuses on companies with market caps above $40 billion, covering major players like SPG, AAPL, MSFT, and NVDA for the 2025-2026 earnings seasons. We prioritize high-impact stocks with robust data to ensure reliable forecasts. Stay tuned as we expand coverage to more companies based on user demand!
