Vistra Corp (VST) FY2025Q3 Earning Prediction
Vistra Corp (VST) is set to release its FY2025Q3 earnings performance on 11/06 07:00:00 ET in Pre-Market trading. Consensus forecasts predict a revenue of 6.18B and an earnings per share (EPS) of 1.20 for the FY2025Q3. With Intellectia's exclusive AI algorithms, users can predict whether the earnings will beat or miss expectations before the report drops. Leverage this powerful tool to strategize and position your trades ahead of the earnings release!
AI Earnings Prediction
The earnings forecast predicts a Beat driven by capacity expansion, favorable power pricing, and strategic share buybacks.
Scenario Analysis
Key Indicators Forecast
No data
Prediction Logic & Rational
- Revenue Drivers:
- Acquisition of 2,600 MW gas facilities expands geographic reach into high-demand markets (PJM, CA, NYISO), directly increasing generation capacity and volumes.
- Permian Basin expansion (+860 MW by 2028) targets surging data center demand in West Texas, supporting volume growth.
- 20-year PPA for Comanche Peak ( 1.2 GW) secures long-term revenue visibility.
- EPS Catalysts:
- Elevated power prices (per TD Cowen, BofA, Morgan Stanley) drive higher realized prices in generation segment.
- Share repurchases ($ 1.4B YTD) reduce float and amplify per-share earnings.
- Proactive cost management (retail segment supply costs) aligns with improved guidance.
Offsetting Risks:
Jefferies’ downgrade highlights political risks in Texas/PJM and stretched valuations. However, analyst consensus remains overwhelmingly bullish (10 Buy/Overweight vs. 1 Hold).
Recent stock underperformance (- 7.5% vs. S&P +7%) suggests lowered expectations, easing the bar for a Beat.
Tactical Strategy Recommendations
- Equity: Buy ahead of earnings given asymmetric upside (bullish analyst sentiment + lowered stock price).
- Options: Nov $190-$200 call spreads to capitalize on Beat/Strong Beat scenarios. Hedge with Nov $175 puts (low cost due to low IV).
- Post-Earnings: Monitor Comanche PPA progress – a finalized deal could reignite momentum toward $250+ targets.
Earnings Surprise Analysis
VST Transcript
The earnings call highlights a strategic acquisition, strong growth in customer count, and high fleet availability, which are positive indicators. The reaffirmed guidance and increased targets for 2026 suggest a strong outlook. However, management's reluctance to quantify future growth rates and hedging details introduces some uncertainty. The positive aspects outweigh the negatives, leading to a 'Positive' sentiment.
The earnings call summary presents mixed signals. While there are positive aspects such as reaffirmed EBITDA guidance, hedging stability, and growth in renewable projects, there are also concerns like management's vague responses and lack of specific details on deals and regulatory impacts. The Q&A session revealed uncertainties regarding regulatory clarity and market dynamics, which could offset the optimistic guidance. Without a market cap, it's challenging to predict the impact, but the overall sentiment appears balanced, leading to a neutral outlook for the stock price movement.
The earnings call highlights strong financial performance with a significant increase in EBITDA, a robust share repurchase program, and a substantial dividend increase. The Q&A section reveals some uncertainties, particularly regarding regulatory outcomes and future guidance, but overall sentiment remains positive due to strong shareholder returns and strategic capacity additions. The company's proactive market strategy and commitment to renewable energy projects further support a positive outlook. Despite some risks and uncertainties, the overall sentiment is positive, suggesting a likely stock price increase of 2% to 8% over the next two weeks.
The earnings call summary and Q&A indicate strong financial performance, with raised guidance for 2024 and 2025 EBITDA and free cash flow, a significant dividend increase, and a robust share repurchase program. Concerns about operational risks and regulatory clarity were addressed, with management expressing confidence in market stabilization. The positive financial outlook and shareholder return plans outweigh the uncertainties, suggesting a positive stock price movement in the short term.
VST Slides
VST Report
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Vistra Corp FY2025Q3 Earnings Release Date and Time?
Vistra Corp (VST) is scheduled to release its FY2025Q3 earnings report onNov 6, 2025, Pre-Market(approximately 4:00 PM ET). This timing allows investors to react during after-hours trading, with a conference call typically following shortly after.
What Are the Consensus Forecasts for Vistra Corp FY2025Q3 Revenue and EPS?
Analysts' consensus predicts 6.18B in revenue and an EPS of 1.20 for Vistra Corp's FY2025Q3.
What Does Intellectia's AI Predict for Vistra Corp FY2025Q3 Earnings?
Intellectia's exclusive AI algorithms forecast a Beat forVistra Corp's FY2025Q3 earnings, with a prediction date of Nov 6, 2025. Vistra Corp The earnings forecast predicts a Beat driven by capacity expansion, favorable power pricing, and strategic share buybacks.
How Can I Use This Earnings Prediction to Trade VST Stock?
Leverage Intellectia's AI forecast to position trades ahead of theNov 6, 2025 release—consider calls for a beat scenario or protective puts for misses. Focus on pre-market volatility, and use the scenario probabilities to build strategies around revenue and guidance updates.
How Accurate Is Intellectia's AI for Earnings Predictions Like Vistra Corp FY2025Q3?
Intellectia's predictions are backed by rigorous backtesting, showing a high hit rate for Beat and Miss calls compared to traditional analysis. While no forecast is 100% certain, we provide probability-based scenarios (e.g., 50% chance of a *Beat*) and detailed rationales to help you make informed decisions. Combine our insights with your strategy for the best results—it's like having a co-pilot for earnings season! Empowering users to strategize trades before reports drop.
How does AI Earnings Prediction generate its forecasts?
AI Earnings Prediction uses advanced Large Language Models (LLMs) to analyze a wealth of data, including past earnings transcripts, real-time market sentiment, analyst insights, and company news from the last three months. It focuses on key indicators like revenue, EPS, and margins to predict whether a company will *Beat*, *Miss*, or remain Neutral relative to market expectations. Think of it as a super-smart analyst crunching numbers and news 24/7 to give you a trading edge!
When are the predictions available, and how often are they updated?
Predictions are generated two days before a company’s earnings release (e.g., 5:00 PM ET on Feb 13 for a Feb 15 report) to capture the latest market and company data. They’re updated in real-time if significant news breaks, ensuring you get fresh insights.
Can I use AI Earnings Prediction for all types of stocks?
Currently, AI Earnings Prediction focuses on companies with market caps above $40 billion, covering major players like SPG, AAPL, MSFT, and NVDA for the 2025-2026 earnings seasons. We prioritize high-impact stocks with robust data to ensure reliable forecasts. Stay tuned as we expand coverage to more companies based on user demand!
