US Bancorp (USB) FY2025Q2 Earning Prediction

07/17 04:00:00

Pre-Market

US Bancorp (USB) is set to release its FY2025Q2 earnings performance on 07/17 04:00:00 in Pre-Market trading. Consensus forecasts predict a revenue of 7.05B and an earnings per share (EPS) of 1.07 for the FY2025Q2. With Intellectia's exclusive AI algorithms, users can predict whether the earnings will beat or miss expectations before the report drops. Leverage this powerful tool to strategize and position your trades ahead of the earnings release!

Estimate

Actual

Surprise

RevenueMISS

7.05B

7.00B

-0.72%

EPSBEAT

1.07

1.11

+3.74%

AI Summary

Report

Attend Webcast

AI Earnings Prediction

Prediction for FY2025Q2

Earnings Date: Jul 17, 2025

USB's earnings outlook remains neutral due to mixed signals balancing positive catalysts like capital return and fee income growth against pressures on NII and expenses.

Neutral

Last 0 quarters:

2 beats3 misses

Scenario Analysis

The AI analyzes the probability of each scenario occurring and identifies the triggering conditions.

Scenario

Prob.

Stock Reaction

Trigger Condition

Strong Beat

15%

+5–7%

NII outperforms guidance + accelerated fee income growth from Fiserv partnership.

Beat

35%

+2–4%

EPS beats via buybacks, stable expenses, and modest NII improvement.

Neutral

40%

Flat

Results align with lowered NII guidance and balanced fee/cost trends.

Miss

-3–5%

NII misses guidance + rising credit costs.

Strong Miss

-7–10%

Significant NII shortfall + unexpected expense surge.

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Key Indicators Forecast

The AI provides itemized forecasts for key indicators, potentially including revenue, EPS, gross margin, and free cash flow.

Revenue

EPS

Currency:

No data

Actual

Estimate

Metric

Prediction

Justification

Revenue

Neutral

Non-interest income growth offset by NII drag.

EPS

Beat

Buybacks (reducing share count) and fee income growth outweigh NII weakness.

Return on Tangible Equity

Neutral

Capital efficiency gains vs. margin compression from lower NII.

Net Charge-Off Ratio

Neutral

Stress test strength vs. macro delinquency risks.

Net Interest Income

Miss

Guidance at lower end of range + delayed rate cuts.

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Prediction Logic & Rational

Fact data presents mixed signals for U.S. Bancorp (USB):

Positive Catalysts:

Capital Return Confidence: A 4% dividend hike and continued $5B buybacks signal strong capital management post-stress test ( 7.1% CET1 ratio requirement vs. well-capitalized position).
Non-Interest Income Growth: Fiserv partnership integration (Credit Choice solution) and analyst expectations for robust equities trading/fee income suggest upside to non-interest revenue.
Regulatory Tailwinds: Fed stress test success and proposed eSLR reductions (lower capital constraints) improve flexibility.

Negative Risks:

Net Interest Income (NII) Pressure: Management guided FY25 NII to the lower end of $ 4.1B–$ 4.2B due to delayed rate cuts, implying weaker-than-expected interest margins.
Expense Uncertainty: Prioritizing expense stabilization suggests operational challenges (e.g., integration costs or inflationary pressures).
Credit Quality Risks: WSJ reports of rising delinquencies in credit portfolios (mitigated by USB’s shift toward wealthier clients).

While buybacks and fee income growth provide upside, NII weakness and expense concerns counterbalance, creating a neutral outlook. High stock outperformance (+25% vs. S&P 500) reflects lofty expectations, making a material beat challenging.

Prediction Logic & Rational

Tactical Strategy Recommendations

Directional Play: Avoid outright long positions given high expectations. Consider short-term puts for downside protection if holding shares.
Options: Sell straddles (short $47.50 calls/puts) to capitalize on elevated IV with neutral outlook.
Relative Value: Pair USB with regional banks (e.g., FITB, CFG) cited by Citi/TD Cowen as higher-beta alternatives.

Key Risks: Upside surprise from faster-than-expected fee income growth or rate cuts; downside from worsening credit quality.

Tactical Strategy Recommendations

Earnings Surprise Analysis

The chart displays the extent of earnings surprises and corresponding stock price movements for each earnings event.

Revenue

EPS

USB Transcript

U.S. Bancorp (USB) Presents at Goldman Sachs 2025 U.S. Financial Services Conference Transcript

Neutral12-10

U.S. Bancorp (USB) Presents at The BancAnalysts Association of Boston Conference Transcript

Neutral11-7

U.S. Bancorp (USB) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Positive10-16

The earnings call summary indicates strong financial performance with positive operating leverage and revenue growth. The Q&A section highlights confidence in achieving financial targets, strategic growth in payments, and a focus on stablecoin readiness. Despite some uncertainties, the overall sentiment is positive, supported by optimistic guidance and a shareholder return plan aiming for a 75% payout ratio. The absence of a market cap suggests a moderate reaction, leading to a positive stock price movement prediction of 2% to 8%.

U.S. Bancorp (USB) Presents At Barclays 23rd Annual Global Financial Services Conference (Transcript)

Neutral9-9

USB Slides

U.S. Bancorp Q1 2025 slides: steady progress with positive operating leverage

2025-04-16

USB Report

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the US Bancorp FY2025Q2 Earnings Release Date and Time?

US Bancorp (USB) is scheduled to release its FY2025Q2 earnings report onJul 17, 2025, Pre-Market(approximately 4:00 PM ET). This timing allows investors to react during after-hours trading, with a conference call typically following shortly after.

What Are the Consensus Forecasts for US Bancorp FY2025Q2 Revenue and EPS?

Analysts' consensus predicts 7.05B in revenue and an EPS of 1.07 for US Bancorp's FY2025Q2.

What Does Intellectia's AI Predict for US Bancorp FY2025Q2 Earnings?

Intellectia's exclusive AI algorithms forecast a Neutral forUS Bancorp's FY2025Q2 earnings, with a prediction date of Jul 17, 2025. US Bancorp USB's earnings outlook remains neutral due to mixed signals balancing positive catalysts like capital return and fee income growth against pressures on NII and expenses.

How Can I Use This Earnings Prediction to Trade USB Stock?

Leverage Intellectia's AI forecast to position trades ahead of theJul 17, 2025 release—consider calls for a beat scenario or protective puts for misses. Focus on pre-market volatility, and use the scenario probabilities to build strategies around revenue and guidance updates.

How Accurate Is Intellectia's AI for Earnings Predictions Like US Bancorp FY2025Q2?

Intellectia's predictions are backed by rigorous backtesting, showing a high hit rate for Beat and Miss calls compared to traditional analysis. While no forecast is 100% certain, we provide probability-based scenarios (e.g., 50% chance of a *Beat*) and detailed rationales to help you make informed decisions. Combine our insights with your strategy for the best results—it's like having a co-pilot for earnings season! Empowering users to strategize trades before reports drop.

How does AI Earnings Prediction generate its forecasts?

AI Earnings Prediction uses advanced Large Language Models (LLMs) to analyze a wealth of data, including past earnings transcripts, real-time market sentiment, analyst insights, and company news from the last three months. It focuses on key indicators like revenue, EPS, and margins to predict whether a company will *Beat*, *Miss*, or remain Neutral relative to market expectations. Think of it as a super-smart analyst crunching numbers and news 24/7 to give you a trading edge!

When are the predictions available, and how often are they updated?

Predictions are generated two days before a company’s earnings release (e.g., 5:00 PM ET on Feb 13 for a Feb 15 report) to capture the latest market and company data. They’re updated in real-time if significant news breaks, ensuring you get fresh insights.

Can I use AI Earnings Prediction for all types of stocks?

Currently, AI Earnings Prediction focuses on companies with market caps above $40 billion, covering major players like SPG, AAPL, MSFT, and NVDA for the 2024-2025 earnings seasons. We prioritize high-impact stocks with robust data to ensure reliable forecasts. Stay tuned as we expand coverage to more companies based on user demand!