United Parcel Service Inc (UPS) FY2025Q4 Earning Prediction
United Parcel Service Inc (UPS) is set to release its FY2025Q4 earnings performance on 01/27 05:00:00 in Pre-Market trading. Consensus forecasts predict a revenue of 24.00B and an earnings per share (EPS) of 2.22 for the FY2025Q4. With Intellectia's exclusive AI algorithms, users can predict whether the earnings will beat or miss expectations before the report drops. Leverage this powerful tool to strategize and position your trades ahead of the earnings release!
AI Earnings Prediction
The forecast predicts a miss in earnings due to operational disruptions, increased costs, and legal challenges, despite some mitigating factors like healthcare logistics growth.
Scenario Analysis
Key Indicators Forecast
No data
Prediction Logic & Rational
Logic & Justification
Fact Data Analysis vs. Key Concerns:
- U.S. ADV Decline:
The indefinite grounding of UPS’s MD-11 fleet (9% of its fleet) during the peak holiday season disrupted logistics, risking volume losses and customer attrition.
Labor lawsuits in New York over wage violations could strain workforce morale and operational efficiency.
- Revenue Per Piece:
- While pricing initiatives (+base rate hikes) and healthcare logistics growth are tailwinds, the $50M headwind from MD-11 lease costs (per UBS) offsets gains and pressures margins.
- International Margins:
- Trade policy shifts and MD-11 fleet reliability issues (critical for international freight) introduce cost uncertainties. The FAA-mandated inspections add compliance costs.
- Operational Efficiency:
- Contingency plans for the MD-11 grounding likely increased temporary costs (e.g., leasing alternative aircraft), undermining progress on labor-hour reduction targets.
Negative Catalysts:
MD-11 Grounding: Severely impacted peak-season operations, risking volume declines and reputational harm.
Labor Litigation: Potential penalties and operational disruptions.
Analyst Caution: JPMorgan, Wolfe, and BofA cite execution risks and valuation concerns.
Mitigating Factors:
Healthcare logistics growth (+high-margin segment) and cost-saving initiatives provide partial offsets.
Slight improvements in U.S. volume trends (down 11% vs. prior -13% estimate).
Tactical Strategy Recommendations
Trading Strategy
- Short Stock/Options: Buy puts or short shares pre-earnings, targeting downside to $95–$100 (consensus $114 target reflects optimism).
- Bear Spreads: Jan 2026 $105/$100 put spreads for leveraged downside.
- Avoid Long Bets: High valuation (11% stock rally) leaves little margin for error.
Key Risks:
- Faster-than-expected MD-11 fleet restoration.
- Healthcare logistics growth surprises to the upside.
Earnings Surprise Analysis
UPS Transcript
The earnings call presented a mix of positive and negative elements. Positives include strong revenue growth in digital and B2B segments, a positive outlook for domestic package revenue, and strategic investments in automation and healthcare logistics. The Q&A highlighted concerns about cost pressures from MD-11 retirement and export volume declines. However, the focus on cost efficiency, margin improvement, and shareholder returns, along with optimistic guidance, outweigh the negatives, suggesting a positive stock reaction in the short term.
The earnings call highlights several concerns: refusal to provide guidance, decline in Amazon volume, and operational challenges. Despite some positive elements like international revenue growth and cost efficiency improvements, the lack of guidance and significant restructuring efforts suggest market uncertainty. The Q&A reveals analysts' concerns about margins, cost alignment, and unclear management responses, further supporting a negative sentiment. The absence of a market cap prevents a precise prediction, but the overall sentiment is negative.
The earnings call presents a mixed outlook. While there are positive developments like increased digital revenue and healthcare logistics growth, there are concerns about declining revenues in some segments and lack of full-year guidance due to market uncertainties. The Q&A reveals unresolved issues with Amazon glide-down and Ground Saver delivery density, which may affect margins. With no clear guidance and ongoing uncertainties, the stock price is likely to remain stable, resulting in a neutral sentiment.
The earnings call presents a mixed picture: while there are positive aspects like increased dividends and share repurchases, cost reduction targets, and a slight increase in operating profit and EPS, there are notable concerns. These include a decline in total revenue, volume decreases, and international operating profit drop. The Q&A highlighted uncertainties, particularly around tariffs and Amazon volume decline, which management was vague about. Given these factors, the stock price is likely to remain stable, leading to a neutral prediction for the next two weeks.
UPS Report
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the United Parcel Service Inc FY2025Q4 Earnings Release Date and Time?
United Parcel Service Inc (UPS) is scheduled to release its FY2025Q4 earnings report onJan 27, 2026, Pre-Market(approximately 4:00 PM ET). This timing allows investors to react during after-hours trading, with a conference call typically following shortly after.
What Are the Consensus Forecasts for United Parcel Service Inc FY2025Q4 Revenue and EPS?
Analysts' consensus predicts 24.00B in revenue and an EPS of 2.00 for United Parcel Service Inc's FY2025Q4.
What Does Intellectia's AI Predict for United Parcel Service Inc FY2025Q4 Earnings?
Intellectia's exclusive AI algorithms forecast a Miss forUnited Parcel Service Inc's FY2025Q4 earnings, with a prediction date of Jan 27, 2026. United Parcel Service Inc The forecast predicts a miss in earnings due to operational disruptions, increased costs, and legal challenges, despite some mitigating factors like healthcare logistics growth.
How Can I Use This Earnings Prediction to Trade UPS Stock?
Leverage Intellectia's AI forecast to position trades ahead of theJan 27, 2026 release—consider calls for a beat scenario or protective puts for misses. Focus on pre-market volatility, and use the scenario probabilities to build strategies around revenue and guidance updates.
How Accurate Is Intellectia's AI for Earnings Predictions Like United Parcel Service Inc FY2025Q4?
Intellectia's predictions are backed by rigorous backtesting, showing a high hit rate for Beat and Miss calls compared to traditional analysis. While no forecast is 100% certain, we provide probability-based scenarios (e.g., 50% chance of a *Beat*) and detailed rationales to help you make informed decisions. Combine our insights with your strategy for the best results—it's like having a co-pilot for earnings season! Empowering users to strategize trades before reports drop.
How does AI Earnings Prediction generate its forecasts?
AI Earnings Prediction uses advanced Large Language Models (LLMs) to analyze a wealth of data, including past earnings transcripts, real-time market sentiment, analyst insights, and company news from the last three months. It focuses on key indicators like revenue, EPS, and margins to predict whether a company will *Beat*, *Miss*, or remain Neutral relative to market expectations. Think of it as a super-smart analyst crunching numbers and news 24/7 to give you a trading edge!
When are the predictions available, and how often are they updated?
Predictions are generated two days before a company’s earnings release (e.g., 5:00 PM ET on Feb 13 for a Feb 15 report) to capture the latest market and company data. They’re updated in real-time if significant news breaks, ensuring you get fresh insights.
Can I use AI Earnings Prediction for all types of stocks?
Currently, AI Earnings Prediction focuses on companies with market caps above $40 billion, covering major players like SPG, AAPL, MSFT, and NVDA for the 2025-2026 earnings seasons. We prioritize high-impact stocks with robust data to ensure reliable forecasts. Stay tuned as we expand coverage to more companies based on user demand!
