Oracle Corp (ORCL) FY2026Q1 Earning Prediction
Oracle Corp (ORCL) is set to release its FY2026Q1 earnings performance on 09/09 04:00:00 in After Hours trading. Consensus forecasts predict a revenue of 15.00B and an earnings per share (EPS) of 1.48 for the FY2026Q1. With Intellectia's exclusive AI algorithms, users can predict whether the earnings will beat or miss expectations before the report drops. Leverage this powerful tool to strategize and position your trades ahead of the earnings release!
AI Earnings Prediction
Oracle is anticipated to exceed expectations due to strong cloud revenue growth driven by AI infrastructure leadership, despite potential free cash flow challenges from high capital expenditures.
Scenario Analysis
Key Indicators Forecast
No data
Prediction Logic & Rational
Logic & Justification
Key Drivers from Fact Data:
- AI Infrastructure Leadership:
Oracle secured a $30B+ annual cloud services contract starting in FY28 (via OpenAI’s Stargate expansion) and partnerships with key players like AMD, Nvidia, and Bloom Energy. Analysts highlight Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) as a "structural winner in AI," with demand surging for AI training workloads.
Impact: Directly supports Cloud Revenue Growth (including IaaS) exceeding expectations.
- Aggressive Data Center Expansion:
$38B debt package for data centers in Texas/Wisconsin, alongside collaborations with xAI and SoftBank. Rapid deployment of fuel cell technology (via Bloom Energy) ensures scalable power for AI workloads.
Impact: Capacity expansion aligns with accelerating cloud demand, driving Revenue Growth.
- Analyst Consensus Shift:
Multiple upgrades (Stifel, Piper Sandler, TD Cowen) cite OCI’s differentiation and accelerating cloud adoption. Mizuho notes Oracle’s "growth inflection" in AI workloads.
Impact: Confidence in Revenue and IaaS Growth surpassing consensus.
- Government/Enterprise Deals:
Federal cloud discounts (75% on software, discounted OCI) and Skydance-Paramount cloud deal ($100M/year).
Impact: Near-term revenue visibility but potential margin pressure.
Risks:High capex ($38B data center debt) may delay Free Cash Flow turnaround.
Operating margins face pressure from aggressive discounts and infrastructure spending.
Tactical Strategy Recommendations
Trading Strategy
1. Stock/Options Plays:
- Long Stock: Leverage momentum from AI narrative and analyst day (October catalyst).
- Bull Call Spread: Buy $230 calls / Sell $250 calls (expiry post-earnings).
- Sell Put Spreads: $210/$200 puts to capitalize on implied volatility.
2. Hedges: - Short OTM Calls: Sell $260 calls against long positions to mitigate downside if FCF concerns escalate.
Rationale: Oracle’s AI infrastructure leadership and contract backlog justify upside bias, but high capex warrants hedging.
Earnings Surprise Analysis
ORCL Transcript
Oracle's earnings call highlights significant growth in cloud revenue, strong partnerships, and aggressive AI expansion plans. Year-over-year increases in key financial metrics, such as total revenue and EPS, coupled with strategic partnerships with Meta and NVIDIA, indicate strong market positioning. Despite unclear timelines for AI margin improvements, the optimistic guidance and robust financial performance suggest a positive stock price reaction.
The earnings call indicates strong growth in cloud applications and infrastructure, with significant revenue increases in key areas like autonomous databases and multi-cloud solutions. Despite a slight dip in total software revenue and negative free cash flow due to high CapEx, the optimistic revenue and EPS guidance, coupled with strategic AI advancements, suggest positive stock movement. The Q&A highlights unique advantages in AI and enterprise applications, reinforcing a positive outlook. However, lack of specific ROI details on CapEx and some unclear management responses prevent a stronger positive rating.
The earnings call reveals strong financial performance, particularly in cloud revenue growth and optimistic future guidance, which are positive indicators for stock price. However, concerns about supply chain, economic factors, and CapEx risks temper the outlook. The shareholder return plan, with stable dividends and share repurchases, supports a positive sentiment. The Q&A section highlights strong demand and strategic positioning in AI and cloud, bolstering confidence despite some management vagueness. Overall, the positive factors outweigh the negatives, suggesting a likely stock price increase in the 2% to 8% range.
ORCL Report
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Oracle Corp FY2026Q1 Earnings Release Date and Time?
Oracle Corp (ORCL) is scheduled to release its FY2026Q1 earnings report onSep 9, 2025, After Hours(approximately 4:00 PM ET). This timing allows investors to react during after-hours trading, with a conference call typically following shortly after.
What Are the Consensus Forecasts for Oracle Corp FY2026Q1 Revenue and EPS?
Analysts' consensus predicts 15.00B in revenue and an EPS of 1.00 for Oracle Corp's FY2026Q1.
What Does Intellectia's AI Predict for Oracle Corp FY2026Q1 Earnings?
Intellectia's exclusive AI algorithms forecast a Strong Beat forOracle Corp's FY2026Q1 earnings, with a prediction date of Sep 9, 2025. Oracle Corp Oracle is anticipated to exceed expectations due to strong cloud revenue growth driven by AI infrastructure leadership, despite potential free cash flow challenges from high capital expenditures.
How Can I Use This Earnings Prediction to Trade ORCL Stock?
Leverage Intellectia's AI forecast to position trades ahead of theSep 9, 2025 release—consider calls for a beat scenario or protective puts for misses. Focus on pre-market volatility, and use the scenario probabilities to build strategies around revenue and guidance updates.
How Accurate Is Intellectia's AI for Earnings Predictions Like Oracle Corp FY2026Q1?
Intellectia's predictions are backed by rigorous backtesting, showing a high hit rate for Beat and Miss calls compared to traditional analysis. While no forecast is 100% certain, we provide probability-based scenarios (e.g., 50% chance of a *Beat*) and detailed rationales to help you make informed decisions. Combine our insights with your strategy for the best results—it's like having a co-pilot for earnings season! Empowering users to strategize trades before reports drop.
How does AI Earnings Prediction generate its forecasts?
AI Earnings Prediction uses advanced Large Language Models (LLMs) to analyze a wealth of data, including past earnings transcripts, real-time market sentiment, analyst insights, and company news from the last three months. It focuses on key indicators like revenue, EPS, and margins to predict whether a company will *Beat*, *Miss*, or remain Neutral relative to market expectations. Think of it as a super-smart analyst crunching numbers and news 24/7 to give you a trading edge!
When are the predictions available, and how often are they updated?
Predictions are generated two days before a company’s earnings release (e.g., 5:00 PM ET on Feb 13 for a Feb 15 report) to capture the latest market and company data. They’re updated in real-time if significant news breaks, ensuring you get fresh insights.
Can I use AI Earnings Prediction for all types of stocks?
Currently, AI Earnings Prediction focuses on companies with market caps above $40 billion, covering major players like SPG, AAPL, MSFT, and NVDA for the 2025-2026 earnings seasons. We prioritize high-impact stocks with robust data to ensure reliable forecasts. Stay tuned as we expand coverage to more companies based on user demand!
