Northrop Grumman Corp (NOC) FY2025Q4 Earning Prediction
Northrop Grumman Corp (NOC) is set to release its FY2025Q4 earnings performance on 01/27 05:00:00 in Pre-Market trading. Consensus forecasts predict a revenue of 12.00B and an earnings per share (EPS) of 7.00 for the FY2025Q4. With Intellectia's exclusive AI algorithms, users can predict whether the earnings will beat or miss expectations before the report drops. Leverage this powerful tool to strategize and position your trades ahead of the earnings release!
AI Earnings Prediction
The earnings forecast anticipates a beat due to strong revenue growth from new contracts and sustained defense budget support, despite some margin and free cash flow pressures.
Scenario Analysis
Key Indicators Forecast
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Prediction Logic & Rational
Fact Data Impact on Key Metrics vs. Consensus
- Revenue Growth Catalysts:
$ 231.5M Marine Corps CCA Contract (Jan 2026) and additional awards (e.g., $ 334.4M SEWIP Block 3) directly bolster near-term revenue.
Proposed $ 1.5T Defense Budget (2027) signals sustained demand for NOC’s core platforms (e.g., B-21, unmanned systems).
Recent Sanctions on Chinese Defense Firms (Dec 2025) pose minimal risk, as NOC’s revenue is U.S./allied-focused.
- Margin Pressures:
Trump’s Buyback/Dividend Ban (Jan 2026) may force reinvestment into production capacity, straining short-term margins.
Supply Chain Stability (per UBS/Citi) offsets risks, supporting consensus margin targets.
- Free Cash Flow Risks:
- $ 25.36B ATSP V Contract (Dec 2025) requires upfront R&D spend, but long-term cash flow visibility remains strong.
- EPS Upside:
- Q3 EPS Beat ($ 7.67 vs. consensus) and operational leverage from new contracts support continued EPS growth.
Tactical Strategy Recommendations
- Stock: Buy pre-earnings on defense budget momentum; trim post-results if guidance lacks $1.5T specificity.
- Options: Long Jan 2026 $670 calls (volatility play on budget news). Hedge with Feb $620 puts (10% position).
- Risks: Monitor China-Taiwan tensions (sanctions escalation) and Fed policy (interest rate impact on defense multiples).
Rationale: Structural defense demand offsets macro risks, but margin/FCF volatility justifies options hedging.
Earnings Surprise Analysis
NOC Transcript
The earnings call presents a mixed outlook with both positive and negative elements. While there are promising growth opportunities in international markets and defense programs, the company has revised its revenue guidance downwards and faces uncertainties in contract timing and financial impacts. The Q&A reveals concerns about specific program timelines and financial projections, which could create investor caution. The lack of clear guidance for 2026 and beyond, coupled with no immediate plans for share buybacks, further tempers enthusiasm. Overall, these factors suggest a neutral stock price movement over the next two weeks.
The earnings call summary and Q&A indicate strong revenue growth, solid international sales, and promising program developments like B-21 and Golden Dome. Despite some unclear management responses, the overall sentiment is positive due to increased free cash flow guidance, robust defense investments, and capacity expansion plans. These factors, along with optimistic guidance and strong financial metrics, suggest a potential positive stock price movement.
NOC Slides
NOC Report
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Northrop Grumman Corp FY2025Q4 Earnings Release Date and Time?
Northrop Grumman Corp (NOC) is scheduled to release its FY2025Q4 earnings report onJan 27, 2026, Pre-Market(approximately 4:00 PM ET). This timing allows investors to react during after-hours trading, with a conference call typically following shortly after.
What Are the Consensus Forecasts for Northrop Grumman Corp FY2025Q4 Revenue and EPS?
Analysts' consensus predicts 12.00B in revenue and an EPS of 7.00 for Northrop Grumman Corp's FY2025Q4.
What Does Intellectia's AI Predict for Northrop Grumman Corp FY2025Q4 Earnings?
Intellectia's exclusive AI algorithms forecast a Beat forNorthrop Grumman Corp's FY2025Q4 earnings, with a prediction date of Jan 27, 2026. Northrop Grumman Corp The earnings forecast anticipates a beat due to strong revenue growth from new contracts and sustained defense budget support, despite some margin and free cash flow pressures.
How Can I Use This Earnings Prediction to Trade NOC Stock?
Leverage Intellectia's AI forecast to position trades ahead of theJan 27, 2026 release—consider calls for a beat scenario or protective puts for misses. Focus on pre-market volatility, and use the scenario probabilities to build strategies around revenue and guidance updates.
How Accurate Is Intellectia's AI for Earnings Predictions Like Northrop Grumman Corp FY2025Q4?
Intellectia's predictions are backed by rigorous backtesting, showing a high hit rate for Beat and Miss calls compared to traditional analysis. While no forecast is 100% certain, we provide probability-based scenarios (e.g., 50% chance of a *Beat*) and detailed rationales to help you make informed decisions. Combine our insights with your strategy for the best results—it's like having a co-pilot for earnings season! Empowering users to strategize trades before reports drop.
How does AI Earnings Prediction generate its forecasts?
AI Earnings Prediction uses advanced Large Language Models (LLMs) to analyze a wealth of data, including past earnings transcripts, real-time market sentiment, analyst insights, and company news from the last three months. It focuses on key indicators like revenue, EPS, and margins to predict whether a company will *Beat*, *Miss*, or remain Neutral relative to market expectations. Think of it as a super-smart analyst crunching numbers and news 24/7 to give you a trading edge!
When are the predictions available, and how often are they updated?
Predictions are generated two days before a company’s earnings release (e.g., 5:00 PM ET on Feb 13 for a Feb 15 report) to capture the latest market and company data. They’re updated in real-time if significant news breaks, ensuring you get fresh insights.
Can I use AI Earnings Prediction for all types of stocks?
Currently, AI Earnings Prediction focuses on companies with market caps above $40 billion, covering major players like SPG, AAPL, MSFT, and NVDA for the 2025-2026 earnings seasons. We prioritize high-impact stocks with robust data to ensure reliable forecasts. Stay tuned as we expand coverage to more companies based on user demand!
