Mondelez International Inc (MDLZ) FY2025Q4 Earning Prediction
Mondelez International Inc (MDLZ) is set to release its FY2025Q4 earnings performance on 02/03 16:05:00 ET in After Hours trading. Consensus forecasts predict a revenue of 10.33B and an earnings per share (EPS) of 0.70 for the FY2025Q4. With Intellectia's exclusive AI algorithms, users can predict whether the earnings will beat or miss expectations before the report drops. Leverage this powerful tool to strategize and position your trades ahead of the earnings release!
AI Earnings Prediction
The forecast anticipates a miss in revenue and EPS due to regulatory and operational challenges, with no significant positive offsetting factors.
Scenario Analysis
Key Indicators Forecast
No data
Prediction Logic & Rational
Logic & Justification
Revenue
Key Risks: The San Francisco lawsuit targeting ultraprocessed foods (including MDLZ) introduces regulatory and reputational risks, potentially dampening consumer demand in key markets.
Lack of Catalysts: No material positive news on emerging market demand or new product launches to offset these risks. Analysts highlight a "challenging operating environment" for consumer staples in 2026, with muted pricing power and volume growth concerns.
Analyst Sentiment: Multiple price target reductions (e.g., UBS, Mizuho, Wells Fargo) reflect lowered expectations.
EPS
Margin Pressure: Commodity price volatility (e.g., cocoa) and lingering tariff impacts could offset cost-saving initiatives. The lawsuit adds potential legal/operational costs.
Operational Headwinds: Piper Sandler notes faster-than-expected adoption of GLP-1 drugs (linked to reduced snack consumption) as a structural risk.
No Offsetting Positives
- Fact data lacks evidence of supply chain improvements, pricing power, or volume acceleration. Neutral/Outperform ratings (e.g., Morgan Stanley, Goldman) hinge on 2026 recovery, not near-term outperformance.
Tactical Strategy Recommendations
Trading Strategy
- Short-Term Puts: Buy $57.5-strike puts expiring shortly after earnings to hedge against downside from a miss.
- Avoid Long Calls: Lack of catalysts and elevated risks make upside unlikely.
- Pairs Trade: Short MDLZ vs. Long defensive staples with lower ultraprocessed food exposure (e.g., KO).
Rationale: Market expectations are low (stock underperformed S&P 500 by ~2.8% since last earnings), but Fact Data provides no evidence of near-term fundamental improvement. Legal and macro risks skew outcomes to the downside.
Earnings Surprise Analysis
MDLZ Transcript
The earnings call summary presents a mixed outlook. While there are positive elements such as strategic investments and diversification, challenges in North American markets and cautious guidance due to cocoa price fluctuations create uncertainties. The Q&A session reveals management's lack of clarity on competitive reactions and specific strategies, which tempers optimism. Overall, the sentiment is neutral as positive long-term strategies are offset by short-term market challenges and lack of detailed guidance.
The earnings call summary presents a mixed picture. The financial performance shows challenges with price increases and higher elasticity in Europe, but emerging markets are performing well. The Q&A highlights concerns about cocoa costs and unclear guidance for 2026, offset by optimism for EPS growth. The U.S. market shows potential with channel expansion and pricing adjustments. Overall, the sentiment is balanced, indicating a neutral stock price movement.
The earnings call indicates strong financial performance with 12% revenue growth and improved margins. The company announced a 10% dividend increase and a $2 billion share repurchase plan, reflecting confidence in financial health and shareholder returns. Despite challenges in North America and Europe, management remains proactive with pricing strategies and market expansion. The Q&A section reveals cautious optimism, with no major negative impacts anticipated from GLP-1 drugs. Overall, the financial results and strategic initiatives suggest a positive market reaction over the next two weeks.
MDLZ Slides
MDLZ Report
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Mondelez International Inc FY2025Q4 Earnings Release Date and Time?
Mondelez International Inc (MDLZ) is scheduled to release its FY2025Q4 earnings report onFeb 3, 2026, After Hours(approximately 4:00 PM ET). This timing allows investors to react during after-hours trading, with a conference call typically following shortly after.
What Are the Consensus Forecasts for Mondelez International Inc FY2025Q4 Revenue and EPS?
Analysts' consensus predicts 10.33B in revenue and an EPS of 0.70 for Mondelez International Inc's FY2025Q4.
What Does Intellectia's AI Predict for Mondelez International Inc FY2025Q4 Earnings?
Intellectia's exclusive AI algorithms forecast a Miss forMondelez International Inc's FY2025Q4 earnings, with a prediction date of Feb 3, 2026. Mondelez International Inc The forecast anticipates a miss in revenue and EPS due to regulatory and operational challenges, with no significant positive offsetting factors.
How Can I Use This Earnings Prediction to Trade MDLZ Stock?
Leverage Intellectia's AI forecast to position trades ahead of theFeb 3, 2026 release—consider calls for a beat scenario or protective puts for misses. Focus on pre-market volatility, and use the scenario probabilities to build strategies around revenue and guidance updates.
How Accurate Is Intellectia's AI for Earnings Predictions Like Mondelez International Inc FY2025Q4?
Intellectia's predictions are backed by rigorous backtesting, showing a high hit rate for Beat and Miss calls compared to traditional analysis. While no forecast is 100% certain, we provide probability-based scenarios (e.g., 50% chance of a *Beat*) and detailed rationales to help you make informed decisions. Combine our insights with your strategy for the best results—it's like having a co-pilot for earnings season! Empowering users to strategize trades before reports drop.
How does AI Earnings Prediction generate its forecasts?
AI Earnings Prediction uses advanced Large Language Models (LLMs) to analyze a wealth of data, including past earnings transcripts, real-time market sentiment, analyst insights, and company news from the last three months. It focuses on key indicators like revenue, EPS, and margins to predict whether a company will *Beat*, *Miss*, or remain Neutral relative to market expectations. Think of it as a super-smart analyst crunching numbers and news 24/7 to give you a trading edge!
When are the predictions available, and how often are they updated?
Predictions are generated two days before a company’s earnings release (e.g., 5:00 PM ET on Feb 13 for a Feb 15 report) to capture the latest market and company data. They’re updated in real-time if significant news breaks, ensuring you get fresh insights.
Can I use AI Earnings Prediction for all types of stocks?
Currently, AI Earnings Prediction focuses on companies with market caps above $40 billion, covering major players like SPG, AAPL, MSFT, and NVDA for the 2025-2026 earnings seasons. We prioritize high-impact stocks with robust data to ensure reliable forecasts. Stay tuned as we expand coverage to more companies based on user demand!
