JD.com Inc (JD) FY2025Q2 Earning Prediction

08/14 04:00:00

Pre-Market

JD.com Inc (JD) is set to release its FY2025Q2 earnings performance on 08/14 04:00:00 in Pre-Market trading. Consensus forecasts predict a revenue of 335.64B and an earnings per share (EPS) of 0.50 for the FY2025Q2. With Intellectia's exclusive AI algorithms, users can predict whether the earnings will beat or miss expectations before the report drops. Leverage this powerful tool to strategize and position your trades ahead of the earnings release!

Estimate

Actual

Surprise

RevenueBEAT

335.64B

356.66B

+6.26%

EPSBEAT

0.50

0.69

+38.00%

AI Summary

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AI Earnings Prediction

Prediction for FY2025Q2

Earnings Date: Aug 14, 2025

The forecast indicates a 'Miss' due to pressures on margins and free cash flow from ongoing investments and losses in new business ventures, despite potential revenue growth.

Miss

Last 0 quarters:

4 beats1 misses

Scenario Analysis

The AI analyzes the probability of each scenario occurring and identifies the triggering conditions.

Scenario

Prob.

Stock Reaction

Trigger Condition

Strong Beat

10%

+8-10%

Food delivery losses < RMB 8B; Ceconomy deal accelerates EU revenue synergies.

Beat

25%

+3-5%

Revenue >3% above consensus, margins stabilize near 15%.

Neutral

20%

Flat

Revenue meets consensus, food delivery losses align with guidance (RMB 10B).

Miss

35%

-5-7%

Margins <15%, food delivery losses >RMB 12B, weak FCF guidance.

Strong Miss

10%

-10-12%

Revenue growth <15%, food delivery losses >RMB 15B, macro concerns escalate.

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Key Indicators Forecast

The AI provides itemized forecasts for key indicators, potentially including revenue, EPS, gross margin, and free cash flow.

Revenue

EPS

Currency:

No data

Actual

Estimate

Metric

Prediction

Justification

Revenue Growth Rate

Beat

BofA’s +3% vs. consensus; core e-commerce strength and food delivery volumes.

Gross Margin

Miss

Discount-driven competition and food delivery mix shift to lower-margin GMV.

Free Cash Flow

Miss

Sustained capex for delivery expansion and acquisitions.

New Business Losses

Strong Miss

Food delivery losses exceed guidance (RMB 10B+), no offsetting synergies.

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Prediction Logic & Rational

Logic & Justification

Revenue Outlook

Potential Upside: BofA forecasts Q2 revenue at 3% above consensus, driven by strength in core e-commerce categories (electronics, home appliances) and food delivery volume growth. The acquisition of Ceconomy (parent of MediaMarkt/Saturn) and potential Starbucks China partnership could signal long-term cross-border growth.
Offsetting Risks: Heavy investment in food delivery ($ 1.4B over 12 months) and aggressive discounts in the instant delivery war with Alibaba may pressure margins despite revenue growth.

EPS/Margin Pressures

Food Delivery Losses: Analysts (Barclays, Morgan Stanley) highlight RMB 10B+ losses in Q2 from food delivery expansion, with no visible synergies to offset costs. This directly impacts non-GAAP net margins, which Benchmark revised down to ** 1.9% for FY25**.
Ceconomy Acquisition Costs: While the deal adds European retail exposure, upfront integration costs and lack of immediate profitability contribute to operating expense inflation.

Free Cash Flow Uncertainty

Increased Capex: Investments in logistics (30-minute delivery) and acquisitions strain liquidity. Free cash flow recovery is unlikely in the near term, given guided spending.

Prediction Logic & Rational

Tactical Strategy Recommendations

Trading Strategy

Bearish Options Play: Buy August $30 puts to hedge against margin compression and food delivery losses.
Pairs Trade: Short JD vs. Long PDD (Temu) to capitalize on JD’s growth vs. profitability trade-off.
Post-Earnings Swing: If guidance reaffirms 2026 margin recovery, consider long calls post-selloff.

Key Risk: A surprise margin beat from Ceconomy cost synergies or faster-than-expected food delivery monetization.

Tactical Strategy Recommendations

Earnings Surprise Analysis

The chart displays the extent of earnings surprises and corresponding stock price movements for each earnings event.

Revenue

EPS

JD Transcript

JD.com, Inc. (JD) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Unknown11-13

Despite strong revenue growth and expanding margins in JD Retail, concerns arise from declining free cash flow, reduced non-GAAP net income, and losses in JD Logistics due to investments. The Q&A reveals management's confidence in long-term strategies, but vague responses about AI investments and international expansion create uncertainties. The mixed financial results and cautious guidance suggest a neutral impact on stock price.

JD.com, Inc. (JD) Q2 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Positive8-14

The earnings call reflects strong financial performance, with significant revenue growth across multiple categories and improved gross margins. The Q&A section highlights strategic investments in food delivery and international expansion, promising long-term growth. Despite some concerns about widening losses in new business segments and reduced free cash flow, the company's strong market positioning, user growth, and shareholder return strategy suggest a positive stock price movement.

JD.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:JD) Q1 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Positive5-14

The earnings call summary indicates strong financial performance with EPS and revenue exceeding expectations, improved margins, and a significant dividend increase. The Q&A session highlighted ongoing growth initiatives in food delivery and AI, despite some lack of detail. The share buyback and dividend increase are positive indicators. While free cash flow decreased, overall financial health remains robust. Given these factors, the stock is likely to see a positive movement in the short term.

JD.com (JD) Q1 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Positive5-13

The earnings call reflects strong financial performance with 16% revenue growth and a 43% increase in non-GAAP net profit. Despite challenges like competition and supply chain issues, JD's focus on AI, robotics, and new business areas like food delivery shows growth potential. Shareholder returns are favorable with significant buybacks and dividends. Although free cash flow decreased, liquidity remains strong. Positive sentiment from analysts and optimistic guidance suggest a positive stock price reaction, likely within the 2% to 8% range over the next two weeks.

JD Report

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the JD.com Inc FY2025Q2 Earnings Release Date and Time?

JD.com Inc (JD) is scheduled to release its FY2025Q2 earnings report onAug 14, 2025, Pre-Market(approximately 4:00 PM ET). This timing allows investors to react during after-hours trading, with a conference call typically following shortly after.

What Are the Consensus Forecasts for JD.com Inc FY2025Q2 Revenue and EPS?

Analysts' consensus predicts 335.64B in revenue and an EPS of 0.50 for JD.com Inc's FY2025Q2.

What Does Intellectia's AI Predict for JD.com Inc FY2025Q2 Earnings?

Intellectia's exclusive AI algorithms forecast a Miss forJD.com Inc's FY2025Q2 earnings, with a prediction date of Aug 14, 2025. JD.com Inc The forecast indicates a 'Miss' due to pressures on margins and free cash flow from ongoing investments and losses in new business ventures, despite potential revenue growth.

How Can I Use This Earnings Prediction to Trade JD Stock?

Leverage Intellectia's AI forecast to position trades ahead of theAug 14, 2025 release—consider calls for a beat scenario or protective puts for misses. Focus on pre-market volatility, and use the scenario probabilities to build strategies around revenue and guidance updates.

How Accurate Is Intellectia's AI for Earnings Predictions Like JD.com Inc FY2025Q2?

Intellectia's predictions are backed by rigorous backtesting, showing a high hit rate for Beat and Miss calls compared to traditional analysis. While no forecast is 100% certain, we provide probability-based scenarios (e.g., 50% chance of a *Beat*) and detailed rationales to help you make informed decisions. Combine our insights with your strategy for the best results—it's like having a co-pilot for earnings season! Empowering users to strategize trades before reports drop.

How does AI Earnings Prediction generate its forecasts?

AI Earnings Prediction uses advanced Large Language Models (LLMs) to analyze a wealth of data, including past earnings transcripts, real-time market sentiment, analyst insights, and company news from the last three months. It focuses on key indicators like revenue, EPS, and margins to predict whether a company will *Beat*, *Miss*, or remain Neutral relative to market expectations. Think of it as a super-smart analyst crunching numbers and news 24/7 to give you a trading edge!

When are the predictions available, and how often are they updated?

Predictions are generated two days before a company’s earnings release (e.g., 5:00 PM ET on Feb 13 for a Feb 15 report) to capture the latest market and company data. They’re updated in real-time if significant news breaks, ensuring you get fresh insights.

Can I use AI Earnings Prediction for all types of stocks?

Currently, AI Earnings Prediction focuses on companies with market caps above $40 billion, covering major players like SPG, AAPL, MSFT, and NVDA for the 2024-2025 earnings seasons. We prioritize high-impact stocks with robust data to ensure reliable forecasts. Stay tuned as we expand coverage to more companies based on user demand!