HSBC Holdings PLC (HSBC) FY2029Q1 Earning Prediction
HSBC Holdings PLC (HSBC) is set to release its FY2029Q1 earnings performance on 07/30 04:00:00 in Pre-Market trading. Consensus forecasts predict a revenue of 17.00B and an earnings per share (EPS) of 1.62 for the FY2029Q1. With Intellectia's exclusive AI algorithms, users can predict whether the earnings will beat or miss expectations before the report drops. Leverage this powerful tool to strategize and position your trades ahead of the earnings release!
AI Earnings Prediction
The forecast predicts an earnings miss due to restructuring costs and return-to-office expenses outweighing operational stability.
Scenario Analysis
Key Indicators Forecast
No data
Prediction Logic & Rational
Logic & Justification
Core Metric Analysis via Fact Data:
- Revenue Risks (Neutral):
Negative: U.S. business banking exit (June/May 2025 news) reduces SME lending revenue streams.
Positive: $26M credit facility with NowVertical (May 2025) signals niche commercial banking growth.
Net: Asia/Middle East focus may offset U.S. losses, but lack of material growth catalysts suggests consensus revenue expectations are achievable but not exceeded.
- Profit Before Tax Pressures (Miss):
Cost Headwinds: Return-to-office mandates (June 2025) add ~$200M/year in real estate costs, conflicting with $ 1.5B annual savings goals.
Restructuring Charges: Layoffs in U.S. business banking (May 2025) and investment banking analysts (May 2025) imply one-time costs impacting near-term margins.
- CET1 Ratio (Neutral/Beat):
- Improvement Likely: Exiting U.S. SME lending reduces risk-weighted assets, partially offsetting French loan portfolio losses.
- ECL Charge (Miss):
- Economic Uncertainty: BofA downgrade (Fact Section) cites U.S. rate cut trajectory and tariff risks, implying heightened credit risk in global trade-exposed sectors.
- Banking NII (Neutral):
- Stable run rate ($42B 2025 target) reflects unchanged rate expectations, but lack of upward revision limits upside.
Tactical Strategy Recommendations
Trading Strategy
- Bearish Play (High Conviction):
- Buy Aug 2025 $62.50 puts (delta ~0.30) to hedge against post-earnings downside.
- Short HSBC ADRs with stop-loss at $66.50 (above recent resistance).
- Neutral Hedge:
- Sell Aug 2025 $67.50 calls (rich IV post-chair search news) for premium.
Rationale: Market underappreciates cost drags from RTO mandates and restructuring, while leadership uncertainty (July 2025 chair search reset) adds execution risk. EPS miss is probable.
- Sell Aug 2025 $67.50 calls (rich IV post-chair search news) for premium.
Earnings Surprise Analysis
HSBC Transcript
The earnings call summary and Q&A indicate strong financial performance, strategic investments, and shareholder returns. The $0.10 dividend and $3 billion share buyback are positive catalysts. Despite some uncertainties like ECL guidance revision and challenging office sector in Hong Kong, the optimistic outlook for Wealth management and strategic investments in AI and technology bolster the sentiment. The Madoff litigation provision is a concern but doesn't alter buyback plans. Overall, positive elements outweigh negatives, suggesting a potential stock price increase of 2% to 8%.
The earnings call summary indicates positive financial performance with a revenue increase, stable net interest income, and a significant share buyback announcement. The Q&A revealed management's confidence in cost savings and continued capital returns, despite some uncertainties. The strong CET1 ratio and dividend reflect financial health. Although there are concerns about trade flow slowdowns, the overall sentiment is optimistic, supported by client growth and strategic cost management. The lack of market cap information suggests a cautious approach, leading to a 'Positive' prediction for stock price movement.
HSBC Report
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the HSBC Holdings PLC FY2029Q1 Earnings Release Date and Time?
HSBC Holdings PLC (HSBC) is scheduled to release its FY2029Q1 earnings report onJul 30, 2025, Pre-Market(approximately 4:00 PM ET). This timing allows investors to react during after-hours trading, with a conference call typically following shortly after.
What Are the Consensus Forecasts for HSBC Holdings PLC FY2029Q1 Revenue and EPS?
Analysts' consensus predicts 17.00B in revenue and an EPS of 2.00 for HSBC Holdings PLC's FY2029Q1.
What Does Intellectia's AI Predict for HSBC Holdings PLC FY2029Q1 Earnings?
Intellectia's exclusive AI algorithms forecast a Miss forHSBC Holdings PLC's FY2029Q1 earnings, with a prediction date of Jul 30, 2025. HSBC Holdings PLC The forecast predicts an earnings miss due to restructuring costs and return-to-office expenses outweighing operational stability.
How Can I Use This Earnings Prediction to Trade HSBC Stock?
Leverage Intellectia's AI forecast to position trades ahead of theJul 30, 2025 release—consider calls for a beat scenario or protective puts for misses. Focus on pre-market volatility, and use the scenario probabilities to build strategies around revenue and guidance updates.
How Accurate Is Intellectia's AI for Earnings Predictions Like HSBC Holdings PLC FY2029Q1?
Intellectia's predictions are backed by rigorous backtesting, showing a high hit rate for Beat and Miss calls compared to traditional analysis. While no forecast is 100% certain, we provide probability-based scenarios (e.g., 50% chance of a *Beat*) and detailed rationales to help you make informed decisions. Combine our insights with your strategy for the best results—it's like having a co-pilot for earnings season! Empowering users to strategize trades before reports drop.
How does AI Earnings Prediction generate its forecasts?
AI Earnings Prediction uses advanced Large Language Models (LLMs) to analyze a wealth of data, including past earnings transcripts, real-time market sentiment, analyst insights, and company news from the last three months. It focuses on key indicators like revenue, EPS, and margins to predict whether a company will *Beat*, *Miss*, or remain Neutral relative to market expectations. Think of it as a super-smart analyst crunching numbers and news 24/7 to give you a trading edge!
When are the predictions available, and how often are they updated?
Predictions are generated two days before a company’s earnings release (e.g., 5:00 PM ET on Feb 13 for a Feb 15 report) to capture the latest market and company data. They’re updated in real-time if significant news breaks, ensuring you get fresh insights.
Can I use AI Earnings Prediction for all types of stocks?
Currently, AI Earnings Prediction focuses on companies with market caps above $40 billion, covering major players like SPG, AAPL, MSFT, and NVDA for the 2025-2026 earnings seasons. We prioritize high-impact stocks with robust data to ensure reliable forecasts. Stay tuned as we expand coverage to more companies based on user demand!
