Goldman Sachs Group Inc (GS) FY2025Q2 Earning Prediction

07/16 04:00:00

Pre-Market

Goldman Sachs Group Inc (GS) is set to release its FY2025Q2 earnings performance on 07/16 04:00:00 in Pre-Market trading. Consensus forecasts predict a revenue of 13.58B and an earnings per share (EPS) of 9.43 for the FY2025Q2. With Intellectia's exclusive AI algorithms, users can predict whether the earnings will beat or miss expectations before the report drops. Leverage this powerful tool to strategize and position your trades ahead of the earnings release!

Estimate

Actual

Surprise

RevenueBEAT

13.58B

14.58B

+7.37%

EPSBEAT

9.43

10.91

+15.69%

AI Summary

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AI Earnings Prediction

Prediction for FY2025Q2

Earnings Date: Jul 16, 2025

Goldman Sachs is expected to report neutral earnings, with mixed performance across segments and limited upside catalysts.

Neutral

Last 0 quarters:

5 beats0 misses

Scenario Analysis

The AI analyzes the probability of each scenario occurring and identifies the triggering conditions.

Scenario

Prob.

Stock Reaction

Trigger Condition

Strong Beat

15%

+3-5%

IB/trading revenues surge 10%+ above consensus; AI cost savings exceed estimates.

Beat

30%

+1-2%

Moderate beats in FICC/equities (+5-7%) and stable wealth management.

Neutral

40%

Flat

Revenue/EPS meet consensus with no surprises.

Miss

10%

-2-4%

China JV losses or capital markets slowdown drag revenue below estimates.

Strong Miss

-5-7%

Sharp decline in trading revenues (+10% miss) and contracting margins.

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Key Indicators Forecast

The AI provides itemized forecasts for key indicators, potentially including revenue, EPS, gross margin, and free cash flow.

Revenue

EPS

Currency:

No data

Actual

Estimate

Metric

Prediction

Justification

Revenue

Neutral

Mixed signals: Strong IB/trading partially offset by China/wealth management headwinds. AI efficiency gains may not materialize immediately.

EPS

Neutral

Dividend hike and buyback flexibility improve capital returns, but higher SCB requirement (10.9% CET1) limits near-term EPS growth.

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Prediction Logic & Rational

While Goldman Sachs (GS) demonstrates positive catalysts (stress test capital flexibility, dividend hike, AI efficiency gains), these are largely offset by elevated market expectations (+ 42.7% stock outperformance vs. S&P 500) and lingering risks (China JV struggles, capital markets volatility). Fact data suggests mixed performance across core segments:

Bullish Drivers:

Stress Test Win: SCB improvement (300bps reduction) frees capital for buybacks/dividends (33% dividend hike announced).
Investment Banking Momentum: Underwriting roles (e.g., Lime’s IPO) and M&A activity align with analyst notes on "accelerating" capital markets.
Cost Efficiency: Generative AI rollout (~10k employees using tool) could improve operating margins.

Bearish Risks:

China Struggles: Departure of ICBC Wealth JV CEO highlights challenges in expanding asset management in China.
Market Volatility: CEO Solomon’s warning on trade policy uncertainty potentially slowing capital markets activity.
Valuation Concerns: Citi notes shares trade "well above historical ranges," requiring 18%+ ROTCE to justify.

Consensus expectations (Revenue: $ 13.53B, EPS: $ 9.88) appear priced in, with limited upside catalysts to drive a material beat.

Prediction Logic & Rational

Tactical Strategy Recommendations

Short-Term Options Play: Given elevated volatility expectations, consider a straddle (buy ATM calls and puts) expiring post-earnings.
Hedge with Puts: Investors long GS might buy downside protection (e.g., $700 puts) given high valuation and macro risks.
Sector Rotation: If GS misses, rotate into less rate-sensitive banks (e.g., JPMorgan) with lower capital markets exposure.

Rationale: Neutral outlook with asymmetric downside risk (high expectations vs. trade policy/China uncertainties). Options pricing likely reflects volatility, making directional bets less attractive.

Tactical Strategy Recommendations

Earnings Surprise Analysis

The chart displays the extent of earnings surprises and corresponding stock price movements for each earnings event.

Revenue

EPS

GS Transcript

The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (GS) Presents at Goldman Sachs 2025 U.S. Financial Services Conference Transcript

Neutral12-9

The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (GS) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Positive10-14

The earnings call summary indicates strong financial performance, growth in asset management, and strategic investments in AI. The 33% dividend increase reflects confidence in financial health. Despite some concerns in the Q&A, such as unclear responses about the Apple Card, the overall sentiment is positive due to strategic growth initiatives and regulatory optimism, suggesting a stock price increase of 2% to 8%.

The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (GS) Presents At Barclays 23rd Annual Global Financial Services Conference Transcript

Neutral9-8

The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (GS) Q2 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Positive7-17

Goldman Sachs' earnings call highlights strong financial performance, strategic growth in wealth management, and a substantial share repurchase plan. Despite macroeconomic challenges, the firm maintains confidence in its durable revenue growth and advisory performance. The Q&A section reveals some uncertainties, but overall, the positive aspects such as record fundraising and a dividend increase outweigh the concerns, suggesting a positive stock price reaction.

GS Slides

Goldman Sachs Q2 2025 slides: record AUS of $3.29T amid mixed quarterly results

2025-07-16

GS Report

GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC 10-Q

10-Q

2024-11-04

GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC 10-Q

10-Q

2024-08-02

GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC 10-Q

10-Q

2024-05-03

GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC 10-K

10-K

2024-02-23

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Goldman Sachs Group Inc FY2025Q2 Earnings Release Date and Time?

Goldman Sachs Group Inc (GS) is scheduled to release its FY2025Q2 earnings report onJul 16, 2025, Pre-Market(approximately 4:00 PM ET). This timing allows investors to react during after-hours trading, with a conference call typically following shortly after.

What Are the Consensus Forecasts for Goldman Sachs Group Inc FY2025Q2 Revenue and EPS?

Analysts' consensus predicts 13.58B in revenue and an EPS of 9.43 for Goldman Sachs Group Inc's FY2025Q2.

What Does Intellectia's AI Predict for Goldman Sachs Group Inc FY2025Q2 Earnings?

Intellectia's exclusive AI algorithms forecast a Neutral forGoldman Sachs Group Inc's FY2025Q2 earnings, with a prediction date of Jul 16, 2025. Goldman Sachs Group Inc Goldman Sachs is expected to report neutral earnings, with mixed performance across segments and limited upside catalysts.

How Can I Use This Earnings Prediction to Trade GS Stock?

Leverage Intellectia's AI forecast to position trades ahead of theJul 16, 2025 release—consider calls for a beat scenario or protective puts for misses. Focus on pre-market volatility, and use the scenario probabilities to build strategies around revenue and guidance updates.

How Accurate Is Intellectia's AI for Earnings Predictions Like Goldman Sachs Group Inc FY2025Q2?

Intellectia's predictions are backed by rigorous backtesting, showing a high hit rate for Beat and Miss calls compared to traditional analysis. While no forecast is 100% certain, we provide probability-based scenarios (e.g., 50% chance of a *Beat*) and detailed rationales to help you make informed decisions. Combine our insights with your strategy for the best results—it's like having a co-pilot for earnings season! Empowering users to strategize trades before reports drop.

How does AI Earnings Prediction generate its forecasts?

AI Earnings Prediction uses advanced Large Language Models (LLMs) to analyze a wealth of data, including past earnings transcripts, real-time market sentiment, analyst insights, and company news from the last three months. It focuses on key indicators like revenue, EPS, and margins to predict whether a company will *Beat*, *Miss*, or remain Neutral relative to market expectations. Think of it as a super-smart analyst crunching numbers and news 24/7 to give you a trading edge!

When are the predictions available, and how often are they updated?

Predictions are generated two days before a company’s earnings release (e.g., 5:00 PM ET on Feb 13 for a Feb 15 report) to capture the latest market and company data. They’re updated in real-time if significant news breaks, ensuring you get fresh insights.

Can I use AI Earnings Prediction for all types of stocks?

Currently, AI Earnings Prediction focuses on companies with market caps above $40 billion, covering major players like SPG, AAPL, MSFT, and NVDA for the 2024-2025 earnings seasons. We prioritize high-impact stocks with robust data to ensure reliable forecasts. Stay tuned as we expand coverage to more companies based on user demand!