CSX Corp (CSX) FY2025Q4 Earning Prediction
CSX Corp (CSX) is set to release its FY2025Q4 earnings performance on 01/22 05:00:00 in After Hours trading. Consensus forecasts predict a revenue of 4.00B and an earnings per share (EPS) of 0.42 for the FY2025Q4. With Intellectia's exclusive AI algorithms, users can predict whether the earnings will beat or miss expectations before the report drops. Leverage this powerful tool to strategize and position your trades ahead of the earnings release!
AI Earnings Prediction
CSX Corporation is expected to experience a miss in earnings due to operational disruptions, volume declines, and leadership uncertainty.
Scenario Analysis
Key Indicators Forecast
No data
Prediction Logic & Rational
Negative Operational Event: The CSX train derailment in Kentucky (Dec 2025) likely resulted in unplanned costs (cleanup, liability, service interruptions), pressuring EPS.
Volume Weakness: TD Cowen and RBC Capital cited weaker Eastern volumes and reduced Q4 estimates ahead of earnings, aligning with coal/forest product declines noted in market concerns.
Leadership Uncertainty: CEO dismissal (Oct 2025) over merger mismanagement and CFO transition may have disrupted strategic execution during the quarter.
Partially Offset by Intermodal Strength: Barclays highlighted capital project completions (Q3) supporting intermodal growth, but weaker overall volumes likely muted revenue upside.
Tactical Strategy Recommendations
- Bearish Options Play: Buy Jan 2026 $35 puts (delta hedge against EPS miss).
- Short Stock: Pair with long UP/NSC shares for railroad sector hedge.
- Avoid Long Calls: Consensus downgrades and weak volume trends limit upside.
Rationale: Fact data points to volume and cost headwinds outweighing intermodal growth, with derailment amplifying EPS risk. Market expectations (-1.5% stock underperformance vs. S&P 500) are low but not fully pricing in operational disruptions.
Earnings Surprise Analysis
CSX Transcript
The earnings call presents mixed signals. Strong points include improved fertilizer volume and positive intermodal service expansion. However, automotive volume decline and revenue per unit drop due to coal pricing are concerns. The Q&A reveals management's cautious approach towards long-term guidance, with some uncertainty about coal volume and revenue growth. The absence of specific long-term OR targets and unclear cost-saving impacts further contribute to a neutral outlook. The market's reaction is likely to be muted, with no significant short-term catalysts to drive strong positive or negative movement.
The earnings call presents a generally positive outlook with strong financial metrics, strategic growth plans, and optimistic guidance. CSX is focusing on efficiency, cost management, and capitalizing on infrastructure projects like the Howard Street Tunnel, which are expected to drive growth. Additionally, shareholder returns through repurchases and dividends are planned. Despite mixed market performance, the company remains optimistic about coal demand and intermodal growth. The Q&A session supports this positive sentiment, highlighting strategic opportunities and margin improvements. Overall, these factors suggest a positive stock price movement.
CSX Slides
CSX Report
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the CSX Corp FY2025Q4 Earnings Release Date and Time?
CSX Corp (CSX) is scheduled to release its FY2025Q4 earnings report onJan 22, 2026, After Hours(approximately 4:00 PM ET). This timing allows investors to react during after-hours trading, with a conference call typically following shortly after.
What Are the Consensus Forecasts for CSX Corp FY2025Q4 Revenue and EPS?
Analysts' consensus predicts 4.00B in revenue and an EPS of 0.00 for CSX Corp's FY2025Q4.
What Does Intellectia's AI Predict for CSX Corp FY2025Q4 Earnings?
Intellectia's exclusive AI algorithms forecast a Miss forCSX Corp's FY2025Q4 earnings, with a prediction date of Jan 22, 2026. CSX Corp CSX Corporation is expected to experience a miss in earnings due to operational disruptions, volume declines, and leadership uncertainty.
How Can I Use This Earnings Prediction to Trade CSX Stock?
Leverage Intellectia's AI forecast to position trades ahead of theJan 22, 2026 release—consider calls for a beat scenario or protective puts for misses. Focus on pre-market volatility, and use the scenario probabilities to build strategies around revenue and guidance updates.
How Accurate Is Intellectia's AI for Earnings Predictions Like CSX Corp FY2025Q4?
Intellectia's predictions are backed by rigorous backtesting, showing a high hit rate for Beat and Miss calls compared to traditional analysis. While no forecast is 100% certain, we provide probability-based scenarios (e.g., 50% chance of a *Beat*) and detailed rationales to help you make informed decisions. Combine our insights with your strategy for the best results—it's like having a co-pilot for earnings season! Empowering users to strategize trades before reports drop.
How does AI Earnings Prediction generate its forecasts?
AI Earnings Prediction uses advanced Large Language Models (LLMs) to analyze a wealth of data, including past earnings transcripts, real-time market sentiment, analyst insights, and company news from the last three months. It focuses on key indicators like revenue, EPS, and margins to predict whether a company will *Beat*, *Miss*, or remain Neutral relative to market expectations. Think of it as a super-smart analyst crunching numbers and news 24/7 to give you a trading edge!
When are the predictions available, and how often are they updated?
Predictions are generated two days before a company’s earnings release (e.g., 5:00 PM ET on Feb 13 for a Feb 15 report) to capture the latest market and company data. They’re updated in real-time if significant news breaks, ensuring you get fresh insights.
Can I use AI Earnings Prediction for all types of stocks?
Currently, AI Earnings Prediction focuses on companies with market caps above $40 billion, covering major players like SPG, AAPL, MSFT, and NVDA for the 2025-2026 earnings seasons. We prioritize high-impact stocks with robust data to ensure reliable forecasts. Stay tuned as we expand coverage to more companies based on user demand!
