(COST) FY2025Q4 Earning Prediction
(COST) is set to release its FY2025Q4 earnings performance on 09/25 04:00:00 in After Hours trading. Consensus forecasts predict a revenue of 86.00B and an earnings per share (EPS) of 5.81 for the FY2025Q4. With Intellectia's exclusive AI algorithms, users can predict whether the earnings will beat or miss expectations before the report drops. Leverage this powerful tool to strategize and position your trades ahead of the earnings release!
AI Earnings Prediction
The earnings forecast anticipates a Beat driven by robust revenue growth, membership fee stability, and margin resilience.
Scenario Analysis
Key Indicators Forecast
No data
Prediction Logic & Rational
Logic & Justification
Fact Data Analysis:
- Revenue Strength:
August/Q4 comparable sales growth accelerated ( 8.7% August sales, 8% Q4 sales growth) despite concerns about moderation. U.S. comps improved sequentially ( 6.7% in August vs. 6.5% in July).
Strategic product expansions (Jones Soda, Krispy Kreme, Laird Superfood) in high-traffic categories likely drove incremental sales.
Continued e-commerce momentum via Costco-Instacart partnership (executive member delivery credits) supports digital growth.
- Membership Fee Stability:
- 90%+ renewal rates and expanded perks (Instacart credits) reinforce loyalty and recurring income.
- Margin Resilience:
- Gross sales growth (8%+) and disciplined inventory management likely offset SG&A pressures. Analysts cited no material cost headwinds.
- Neutral Analyst Sentiment:
- While valuation concerns persist (50x P/E), consensus acknowledges "stable spending" and "comp consistency," lowering the bar for a Beat.
Tactical Strategy Recommendations
Trading Strategy
- Directional Play: Buy short-dated calls (Oct 2025 expiry) for leverage on a Beat.
- Hedging: Pair with put spreads to mitigate valuation risks (e.g., long $950 put/short $900 put).
- Theta Harvest: Sell weekly $1,000 straddles pre-earnings amid elevated IV (~30% percentile).
Rationale: Fact data supports a Beat, but valuation limits upside. Options strategies balance asymmetric risk/reward.
Earnings Surprise Analysis
COST Transcript
The earnings call highlights strong market share growth, successful digital engagement, and promising international expansion, despite some challenges with renewal rates among younger members. The company's strategic focus on warehouse expansion and digital enhancements, along with optimistic guidance for membership growth, supports a positive outlook. However, management's avoidance of specific forward-looking guidance introduces some uncertainty, tempering the overall sentiment. Given these factors, the stock price is likely to experience a positive movement in the short term.
The earnings call summary and Q&A section reveal a generally positive sentiment. The company is expanding with new warehouses, showing strong membership growth, and enhancing digital initiatives. While management avoided some specifics, they conveyed confidence in mitigating tariffs and sustaining growth. The focus on value delivery and investment in technology and real estate supports a favorable outlook. Despite some uncertainties, the overall sentiment suggests a positive stock price movement, likely in the 2% to 8% range.
The earnings call summary highlights strong financial performance with increased sales, membership fee income, and gross margin. Despite higher SG&A rates due to wage investments, productivity improvements offset these costs. The Q&A section revealed management's focus on price competitiveness and strategic growth, although some responses lacked clarity. The partnership with Affirm and strong international sales add positive sentiment. Overall, the company's solid financial metrics, strategic initiatives, and optimistic outlook suggest a positive stock price movement in the near term.
The earnings call presents a mixed picture: strong financial performance with increased net income and EPS, alongside challenges like inflation and competitive pressures. The Q&A reveals management's focus on long-term growth and cost optimization, but lacks clarity on tariff impacts and price adjustments. No share repurchase program was announced, and economic uncertainty persists. Despite strong sales, the absence of clear guidance and lack of new partnership announcements suggest a neutral stock price movement over the next two weeks.
COST Slides
COST Report
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the FY2025Q4 Earnings Release Date and Time?
(COST) is scheduled to release its FY2025Q4 earnings report onSep 25, 2025, After Hours(approximately 4:00 PM ET). This timing allows investors to react during after-hours trading, with a conference call typically following shortly after.
What Are the Consensus Forecasts for FY2025Q4 Revenue and EPS?
Analysts' consensus predicts 86.00B in revenue and an EPS of 6.00 for 's FY2025Q4.
What Does Intellectia's AI Predict for FY2025Q4 Earnings?
Intellectia's exclusive AI algorithms forecast a Beat for's FY2025Q4 earnings, with a prediction date of Sep 25, 2025. The earnings forecast anticipates a Beat driven by robust revenue growth, membership fee stability, and margin resilience.
How Can I Use This Earnings Prediction to Trade COST Stock?
Leverage Intellectia's AI forecast to position trades ahead of theSep 25, 2025 release—consider calls for a beat scenario or protective puts for misses. Focus on pre-market volatility, and use the scenario probabilities to build strategies around revenue and guidance updates.
How Accurate Is Intellectia's AI for Earnings Predictions Like FY2025Q4?
Intellectia's predictions are backed by rigorous backtesting, showing a high hit rate for Beat and Miss calls compared to traditional analysis. While no forecast is 100% certain, we provide probability-based scenarios (e.g., 50% chance of a *Beat*) and detailed rationales to help you make informed decisions. Combine our insights with your strategy for the best results—it's like having a co-pilot for earnings season! Empowering users to strategize trades before reports drop.
How does AI Earnings Prediction generate its forecasts?
AI Earnings Prediction uses advanced Large Language Models (LLMs) to analyze a wealth of data, including past earnings transcripts, real-time market sentiment, analyst insights, and company news from the last three months. It focuses on key indicators like revenue, EPS, and margins to predict whether a company will *Beat*, *Miss*, or remain Neutral relative to market expectations. Think of it as a super-smart analyst crunching numbers and news 24/7 to give you a trading edge!
When are the predictions available, and how often are they updated?
Predictions are generated two days before a company’s earnings release (e.g., 5:00 PM ET on Feb 13 for a Feb 15 report) to capture the latest market and company data. They’re updated in real-time if significant news breaks, ensuring you get fresh insights.
Can I use AI Earnings Prediction for all types of stocks?
Currently, AI Earnings Prediction focuses on companies with market caps above $40 billion, covering major players like SPG, AAPL, MSFT, and NVDA for the 2025-2026 earnings seasons. We prioritize high-impact stocks with robust data to ensure reliable forecasts. Stay tuned as we expand coverage to more companies based on user demand!
