Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc (CMG) FY2025Q3 Earning Prediction
Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc (CMG) is set to release its FY2025Q3 earnings performance on 10/29 16:10:00 ET in After Hours trading. Consensus forecasts predict a revenue of 3.02B and an earnings per share (EPS) of 0.28 for the FY2025Q3. With Intellectia's exclusive AI algorithms, users can predict whether the earnings will beat or miss expectations before the report drops. Leverage this powerful tool to strategize and position your trades ahead of the earnings release!
AI Earnings Prediction
The earnings forecast suggests a likely miss due to weak sales growth, margin pressures, and lowered EPS projections.
Scenario Analysis
Key Indicators Forecast
No data
Prediction Logic & Rational
Fact Data Analysis vs. Core Concerns:
- Sales Growth:
Negative Signals: Multiple analysts (Barclays, UBS, KeyBanc) note "choppy" Q3 comp sales, slowing September traffic despite value offers (Carne Asada LTO priced lower than 2024’s Smoked Brisket), and macro pressures on lower-income consumers.
Positive Signals: New Red Chimichurri sauce, family meal bundles, and college loyalty programs aim to boost digital sales (~ 35.5% of revenue). However, these initiatives are unlikely to offset persistent traffic weakness flagged by analysts.
- Restaurant-Level Margin:
- Negative Signals: Labor/operating costs remain elevated (previous 60/110 bps increases), and food inflation spiked for select items (Barclays). New delivery partnerships (Zipotle) and marketing spend could further pressure margins.
- Adjusted Diluted EPS:
- Negative Signals: Lower sales volumes and persistent cost pressures (Morgan Stanley, Jefferies) outweigh benefits from $500M buybacks. Analysts broadly cut EPS targets (- 1.1% consensus revision).
- Cost of Sales:
- Mixed Signals: Menu price hikes and supply chain efficiencies (driving 50 bps improvement last quarter) may not fully offset beef inflation (Raymond James).
Tactical Strategy Recommendations
- Short-Term: Buy Oct 2025 $40 puts or bearish spreads. Stock has priced in some downside (-9% since last earnings), but weak comps/margins likely drive further selloff.
- Long-Term: Monitor for re-entry post-earnings if guidance resets expectations. Upcoming Asia expansion (2026) and unit economics improvements (Rothschild note) could offer value later.
- Avoid: Long calls until traffic/margin trends stabilize.
Key Risks: Upside from stronger-than-expected digital sales (Family Meals, Chipotle U Rewards) or abrupt cost deflation.
Earnings Surprise Analysis
CMG Transcript
The earnings call indicates positive sentiment due to strategic growth plans, including international expansion and menu innovation. Despite some margin pressure from inflation, the company is focusing on operational efficiencies and new customer engagement strategies. The Q&A highlighted management's confidence in their initiatives, although some details were vague. Overall, the combination of strategic initiatives and optimistic guidance suggests a positive stock price movement.
The earnings call presents a mixed picture: strong menu innovation and digital strategy, but concerns about traffic decline and margin pressure. The Q&A reveals cautious pricing and growth strategies, with management confident in mid-single-digit growth but vague on specifics. Traffic losses and economic pressures are noted. Overall, the sentiment is balanced, leading to a neutral prediction.
The earnings call summary reveals a generally positive outlook with strong new store productivity, consistent sales trends, and strategic initiatives like LTOs and operational improvements. The Q&A section highlights confidence in achieving growth despite macro challenges, with no significant competitive threats. The introduction of a new COO and high-efficiency equipment rollout also supports operational enhancements. Although there are some concerns about macro susceptibility, the overall sentiment leans towards optimism, suggesting a positive stock price movement.
The earnings call highlights strong financial performance with a 15% increase in sales and 24% EPS growth. Despite some cost pressures, Chipotle's strategic expansions, tech innovations, and a robust share repurchase program signal confidence. The Q&A section reveals management's optimism about international growth and digital sales. Though there are concerns about tariffs and labor costs, the overall positive guidance and strategic initiatives outweigh these risks, suggesting a positive stock price movement.
CMG Report
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc FY2025Q3 Earnings Release Date and Time?
Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc (CMG) is scheduled to release its FY2025Q3 earnings report onOct 29, 2025, After Hours(approximately 4:00 PM ET). This timing allows investors to react during after-hours trading, with a conference call typically following shortly after.
What Are the Consensus Forecasts for Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc FY2025Q3 Revenue and EPS?
Analysts' consensus predicts 3.02B in revenue and an EPS of 0.28 for Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc's FY2025Q3.
What Does Intellectia's AI Predict for Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc FY2025Q3 Earnings?
Intellectia's exclusive AI algorithms forecast a Miss forChipotle Mexican Grill Inc's FY2025Q3 earnings, with a prediction date of Oct 29, 2025. Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc The earnings forecast suggests a likely miss due to weak sales growth, margin pressures, and lowered EPS projections.
How Can I Use This Earnings Prediction to Trade CMG Stock?
Leverage Intellectia's AI forecast to position trades ahead of theOct 29, 2025 release—consider calls for a beat scenario or protective puts for misses. Focus on pre-market volatility, and use the scenario probabilities to build strategies around revenue and guidance updates.
How Accurate Is Intellectia's AI for Earnings Predictions Like Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc FY2025Q3?
Intellectia's predictions are backed by rigorous backtesting, showing a high hit rate for Beat and Miss calls compared to traditional analysis. While no forecast is 100% certain, we provide probability-based scenarios (e.g., 50% chance of a *Beat*) and detailed rationales to help you make informed decisions. Combine our insights with your strategy for the best results—it's like having a co-pilot for earnings season! Empowering users to strategize trades before reports drop.
How does AI Earnings Prediction generate its forecasts?
AI Earnings Prediction uses advanced Large Language Models (LLMs) to analyze a wealth of data, including past earnings transcripts, real-time market sentiment, analyst insights, and company news from the last three months. It focuses on key indicators like revenue, EPS, and margins to predict whether a company will *Beat*, *Miss*, or remain Neutral relative to market expectations. Think of it as a super-smart analyst crunching numbers and news 24/7 to give you a trading edge!
When are the predictions available, and how often are they updated?
Predictions are generated two days before a company’s earnings release (e.g., 5:00 PM ET on Feb 13 for a Feb 15 report) to capture the latest market and company data. They’re updated in real-time if significant news breaks, ensuring you get fresh insights.
Can I use AI Earnings Prediction for all types of stocks?
Currently, AI Earnings Prediction focuses on companies with market caps above $40 billion, covering major players like SPG, AAPL, MSFT, and NVDA for the 2025-2026 earnings seasons. We prioritize high-impact stocks with robust data to ensure reliable forecasts. Stay tuned as we expand coverage to more companies based on user demand!
