Booking Holdings Inc (BKNG) FY2025Q3 Earning Prediction

10/28 04:00:00

After Hours

Booking Holdings Inc (BKNG) is set to release its FY2025Q3 earnings performance on 10/28 04:00:00 in After Hours trading. Consensus forecasts predict a revenue of 8.73B and an earnings per share (EPS) of 96.10 for the FY2025Q3. With Intellectia's exclusive AI algorithms, users can predict whether the earnings will beat or miss expectations before the report drops. Leverage this powerful tool to strategize and position your trades ahead of the earnings release!

Estimate

Actual

Surprise

RevenueBEAT

8.73B

9.01B

+3.15%

EPSBEAT

96.10

99.50

+3.54%

AI Summary

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AI Earnings Prediction

Prediction for FY2025Q3

Earnings Date: Oct 28, 2025

The forecast anticipates a Neutral outcome due to mixed regional demand signals and margin pressures, with some upside potential from operational efficiencies.

Neutral

Last 0 quarters:

5 beats0 misses

Scenario Analysis

The AI analyzes the probability of each scenario occurring and identifies the triggering conditions.

Scenario

Prob.

Stock Reaction

Trigger Condition

Strong Beat

20%

+5-7%

Room night growth accelerates in Asia/Europe + FX tailwinds.

Beat

30%

+2-4%

EBITDA margins exceed expectations + stable demand.

Neutral

40%

Flat

Mixed regional trends offset efficiency gains.

Miss

-3-5%

European room nights decline sharply + margin compression.

Strong Miss

-8-10%

Macro shocks (geopolitical/economic) hurt global travel demand.

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Key Indicators Forecast

The AI provides itemized forecasts for key indicators, potentially including revenue, EPS, gross margin, and free cash flow.

Revenue

EPS

Currency:

No data

Actual

Estimate

Metric

Prediction

Justification

Revenue

Neutral

Room night growth in Europe is faltering (Wedbush), offsetting Asian strength (DA Davidson). Alternative lodging slowdown (Mizuho) adds pressure.

EPS

Beat

Operational efficiency (KeyBanc) and cost discipline should drive EPS slightly above consensus.

Adjusted EBITDA

Beat

Margin resilience from marketing efficiency and stable travel demand (Erste Group).

Gross Bookings

Neutral

FX impacts unclear, but Cantor Fitzgerald expects Q3 gross bookings above guidance.

Free Cash Flow

Beat

Strong EBITDA growth and expense management outweigh legal settlement costs.

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Prediction Logic & Rational

Logic & Justification

Fact Data Analysis:

Mixed Regional Demand Signals:

Positive: DA Davidson highlighted Q3 room night growth in Europe and Asia above guidance, and Susquehanna noted steady demand.
Negative: Wedbush observed weakening European demand and negative growth in alternative accommodations for Booking Holdings, which aligns with Mizuho’s warning about slowing alternative lodging growth.

Margin Pressures vs. Efficiency Gains:

Adjusted EBITDA growth is supported by cost management (KeyBanc’s "best-in-class marketing efficiency") but offset by the $ 9.5M legal settlement and slowing alternative accommodations growth.

FX Impact Uncertain: Analysts did not cite specific FX tailwinds, and macro/geopolitical risks (per Susquehanna) could mute benefits.
Cash Flow Strength: Strong free cash flow generation is likely (Erste Group cites EBITDA growth outpacing sales), but reinvestment needs for tech partnerships (OpenAI, OpenTable) may limit cash balance growth.

Prediction Logic & Rational

Tactical Strategy Recommendations

Trading Strategy

Options Straddle: Buy both calls ($5250 strike) and puts ($5200 strike) expiring post-earnings to hedge mixed signals on regional demand and margins.
Bullish Bias Play: Sell cash-secured puts at $5100 to capitalize on elevated implied volatility, as Neutral/Bear scenarios are less likely than Beat.
Long-Term Hold: Accumulate shares on dips given Booking’s operational efficiency and leadership in online travel. Rationale: The stock’s underperformance vs. the S&P 500 (-7% vs. +4.5%) suggests lowered expectations, but Fact Data lacks a decisive catalyst for a Beat. A Neutral outcome is most likely, with upside tied to margin execution and downside limited by cost controls.

Tactical Strategy Recommendations

Earnings Surprise Analysis

The chart displays the extent of earnings surprises and corresponding stock price movements for each earnings event.

Revenue

EPS

BKNG Transcript

Booking Holdings Inc. (BKNG) Presents at 53rd Annual Nasdaq Investor Conference Transcript

Neutral12-9

Booking Holdings Inc. (BKNG) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Positive10-28

The earnings call summary reveals strong financial performance, continued product development, and strategic market expansion, particularly in Asia. The integration with OpenAI and AI-driven tools show promising early results in improving customer satisfaction and conversion rates. Despite competitive pressures, the company remains optimistic about its strategies and growth potential. The Q&A session highlights effective risk management and a focus on innovation. Overall, the positive elements outweigh any concerns, suggesting a likely stock price increase in the short term.

Booking Holdings Inc. (BKNG) Presents At Goldman Sachs Communacopia + Technology Conference (Transcript)

Neutral9-11

Booking Holdings Inc. (BKNG) Presents At Citi's 2025 Global Technology, Media And Telecommunications Conference Transcript

Neutral9-3

BKNG Report

Booking Holdings Inc. 10-K

10-K

2025-02-20

Booking Holdings Inc. 10-Q

10-Q

2024-10-30

Booking Holdings Inc. 10-Q

10-Q

2024-08-01

Booking Holdings Inc. 10-Q

10-Q

2024-05-02

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Booking Holdings Inc FY2025Q3 Earnings Release Date and Time?

Booking Holdings Inc (BKNG) is scheduled to release its FY2025Q3 earnings report onOct 28, 2025, After Hours(approximately 4:00 PM ET). This timing allows investors to react during after-hours trading, with a conference call typically following shortly after.

What Are the Consensus Forecasts for Booking Holdings Inc FY2025Q3 Revenue and EPS?

Analysts' consensus predicts 8.73B in revenue and an EPS of 96.10 for Booking Holdings Inc's FY2025Q3.

What Does Intellectia's AI Predict for Booking Holdings Inc FY2025Q3 Earnings?

Intellectia's exclusive AI algorithms forecast a Neutral forBooking Holdings Inc's FY2025Q3 earnings, with a prediction date of Oct 28, 2025. Booking Holdings Inc The forecast anticipates a Neutral outcome due to mixed regional demand signals and margin pressures, with some upside potential from operational efficiencies.

How Can I Use This Earnings Prediction to Trade BKNG Stock?

Leverage Intellectia's AI forecast to position trades ahead of theOct 28, 2025 release—consider calls for a beat scenario or protective puts for misses. Focus on pre-market volatility, and use the scenario probabilities to build strategies around revenue and guidance updates.

How Accurate Is Intellectia's AI for Earnings Predictions Like Booking Holdings Inc FY2025Q3?

Intellectia's predictions are backed by rigorous backtesting, showing a high hit rate for Beat and Miss calls compared to traditional analysis. While no forecast is 100% certain, we provide probability-based scenarios (e.g., 50% chance of a *Beat*) and detailed rationales to help you make informed decisions. Combine our insights with your strategy for the best results—it's like having a co-pilot for earnings season! Empowering users to strategize trades before reports drop.

How does AI Earnings Prediction generate its forecasts?

AI Earnings Prediction uses advanced Large Language Models (LLMs) to analyze a wealth of data, including past earnings transcripts, real-time market sentiment, analyst insights, and company news from the last three months. It focuses on key indicators like revenue, EPS, and margins to predict whether a company will *Beat*, *Miss*, or remain Neutral relative to market expectations. Think of it as a super-smart analyst crunching numbers and news 24/7 to give you a trading edge!

When are the predictions available, and how often are they updated?

Predictions are generated two days before a company’s earnings release (e.g., 5:00 PM ET on Feb 13 for a Feb 15 report) to capture the latest market and company data. They’re updated in real-time if significant news breaks, ensuring you get fresh insights.

Can I use AI Earnings Prediction for all types of stocks?

Currently, AI Earnings Prediction focuses on companies with market caps above $40 billion, covering major players like SPG, AAPL, MSFT, and NVDA for the 2024-2025 earnings seasons. We prioritize high-impact stocks with robust data to ensure reliable forecasts. Stay tuned as we expand coverage to more companies based on user demand!