Booking Holdings Inc (BKNG) FY2025Q2 Earning Prediction

07/29 04:00:00

After Hours

Booking Holdings Inc (BKNG) is set to release its FY2025Q2 earnings performance on 07/29 04:00:00 in After Hours trading. Consensus forecasts predict a revenue of 6.55B and an earnings per share (EPS) of 50.59 for the FY2025Q2. With Intellectia's exclusive AI algorithms, users can predict whether the earnings will beat or miss expectations before the report drops. Leverage this powerful tool to strategize and position your trades ahead of the earnings release!

Estimate

Actual

Surprise

RevenueBEAT

6.55B

6.80B

+3.71%

EPSBEAT

50.59

55.40

+9.51%

AI Summary

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AI Earnings Prediction

Prediction for FY2025Q2

Earnings Date: Jul 29, 2025

The earnings forecast indicates a likely Beat scenario, driven by strong revenue growth, improved margins, and operational efficiencies, despite some regulatory risks.

Beat

Last 0 quarters:

5 beats0 misses

Scenario Analysis

The AI analyzes the probability of each scenario occurring and identifies the triggering conditions.

Scenario

Prob.

Stock Reaction

Trigger Condition

Strong Beat

20%

+6-8%

Revenue growth >10%, EBITDA >23%, direct bookings >65%, legal risks dismissed.

Beat

50%

+3-5%

Revenue ~9-10%, EBITDA ~22%, steady direct booking mix.

Neutral

15%

Flat

Revenue/EBITDA meet consensus, legal concerns offset growth.

Miss

10%

-5-7%

Room-night growth <8%, EBITDA <21%, Dutch lawsuit escalates.

Strong Miss

-10%+

Revenue <7%, EBITDA <20%, direct bookings decline, regulatory penalties.

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Key Indicators Forecast

The AI provides itemized forecasts for key indicators, potentially including revenue, EPS, gross margin, and free cash flow.

Revenue

EPS

Currency:

No data

Actual

Estimate

Metric

Prediction

Justification

Revenue

Beat

Room-night growth, AI-driven reservations, and expanded flight offerings.

Adjusted EBITDA

Beat

FX tailwinds, cost efficiencies, and Asia growth driving margins.

Adjusted EPS

Beat

Operational leverage from higher bookings and revised EBITDA guidance.

Direct Booking Mix

Beat

OpenTable AI and direct flight integrations likely reduce third-party reliance.

Free Cash Flow

Neutral

Strong cash generation expected, but legal risks could pressure working capital.

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Prediction Logic & Rational

Logic & Justification

Fact Data Analysis

Positive Signals for Revenue Growth:

BTIG’s quarter-to-date tracking shows improved Q2 room-night trends, suggesting potential upside to revenue growth vs. consensus expectations (8% YoY).
Gen-AI "Concierge" launch (OpenTable) could drive higher reservation volumes by addressing diner uncertainties, supporting direct bookings (a key metric).
Etraveli Group partnership extension (8 years) strengthens global flight offerings, potentially boosting cross-selling and international demand.

Margin and Profitability Catalysts:

Truist raised FY25 adjusted EBITDA guidance to $ 9.3B (from $ 8.9B), citing reduced macro risks and Asia exposure.
Barclays and JPMorgan highlight FX tailwinds and operational efficiency, which could amplify EPS growth.

Risks Limiting Upside:

Dutch legal claim alleging inflated hotel prices introduces regulatory and reputational risks, though financial impact is unclear.
High expectations already priced in (stock up 13.6% vs. S&P 500’s 12.1%), requiring a material beat for further upside.

Prediction Logic & Rational

Tactical Strategy Recommendations

Trading Strategy

Preferred Plays:

Short-Term Options:
- Buy August $5,800 calls (delta ~0.3) to capitalize on moderate upside (Beat scenario).
- Sell July $5,500 puts (high implied volatility) to collect premium, as a Miss is less likely.
Stock Pair Trade:
- Long BKNG vs. Short ABNB/EXPE (weaker Q2 trends per BTIG/Wells Fargo).

Risk Notes:

Monitor Dutch legal developments and intra-quarter travel data for hedging.
Post-earnings IV crush likely; avoid long-dated options.

Tactical Strategy Recommendations

Earnings Surprise Analysis

The chart displays the extent of earnings surprises and corresponding stock price movements for each earnings event.

Revenue

EPS

BKNG Transcript

Booking Holdings Inc. (BKNG) Presents at 53rd Annual Nasdaq Investor Conference Transcript

Neutral12-9

Booking Holdings Inc. (BKNG) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Positive10-28

The earnings call summary reveals strong financial performance, continued product development, and strategic market expansion, particularly in Asia. The integration with OpenAI and AI-driven tools show promising early results in improving customer satisfaction and conversion rates. Despite competitive pressures, the company remains optimistic about its strategies and growth potential. The Q&A session highlights effective risk management and a focus on innovation. Overall, the positive elements outweigh any concerns, suggesting a likely stock price increase in the short term.

Booking Holdings Inc. (BKNG) Presents At Goldman Sachs Communacopia + Technology Conference (Transcript)

Neutral9-11

Booking Holdings Inc. (BKNG) Presents At Citi's 2025 Global Technology, Media And Telecommunications Conference Transcript

Neutral9-3

BKNG Report

Booking Holdings Inc. 10-K

10-K

2025-02-20

Booking Holdings Inc. 10-Q

10-Q

2024-10-30

Booking Holdings Inc. 10-Q

10-Q

2024-08-01

Booking Holdings Inc. 10-Q

10-Q

2024-05-02

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Booking Holdings Inc FY2025Q2 Earnings Release Date and Time?

Booking Holdings Inc (BKNG) is scheduled to release its FY2025Q2 earnings report onJul 29, 2025, After Hours(approximately 4:00 PM ET). This timing allows investors to react during after-hours trading, with a conference call typically following shortly after.

What Are the Consensus Forecasts for Booking Holdings Inc FY2025Q2 Revenue and EPS?

Analysts' consensus predicts 6.55B in revenue and an EPS of 50.59 for Booking Holdings Inc's FY2025Q2.

What Does Intellectia's AI Predict for Booking Holdings Inc FY2025Q2 Earnings?

Intellectia's exclusive AI algorithms forecast a Beat forBooking Holdings Inc's FY2025Q2 earnings, with a prediction date of Jul 29, 2025. Booking Holdings Inc The earnings forecast indicates a likely Beat scenario, driven by strong revenue growth, improved margins, and operational efficiencies, despite some regulatory risks.

How Can I Use This Earnings Prediction to Trade BKNG Stock?

Leverage Intellectia's AI forecast to position trades ahead of theJul 29, 2025 release—consider calls for a beat scenario or protective puts for misses. Focus on pre-market volatility, and use the scenario probabilities to build strategies around revenue and guidance updates.

How Accurate Is Intellectia's AI for Earnings Predictions Like Booking Holdings Inc FY2025Q2?

Intellectia's predictions are backed by rigorous backtesting, showing a high hit rate for Beat and Miss calls compared to traditional analysis. While no forecast is 100% certain, we provide probability-based scenarios (e.g., 50% chance of a *Beat*) and detailed rationales to help you make informed decisions. Combine our insights with your strategy for the best results—it's like having a co-pilot for earnings season! Empowering users to strategize trades before reports drop.

How does AI Earnings Prediction generate its forecasts?

AI Earnings Prediction uses advanced Large Language Models (LLMs) to analyze a wealth of data, including past earnings transcripts, real-time market sentiment, analyst insights, and company news from the last three months. It focuses on key indicators like revenue, EPS, and margins to predict whether a company will *Beat*, *Miss*, or remain Neutral relative to market expectations. Think of it as a super-smart analyst crunching numbers and news 24/7 to give you a trading edge!

When are the predictions available, and how often are they updated?

Predictions are generated two days before a company’s earnings release (e.g., 5:00 PM ET on Feb 13 for a Feb 15 report) to capture the latest market and company data. They’re updated in real-time if significant news breaks, ensuring you get fresh insights.

Can I use AI Earnings Prediction for all types of stocks?

Currently, AI Earnings Prediction focuses on companies with market caps above $40 billion, covering major players like SPG, AAPL, MSFT, and NVDA for the 2024-2025 earnings seasons. We prioritize high-impact stocks with robust data to ensure reliable forecasts. Stay tuned as we expand coverage to more companies based on user demand!