Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA (BBVA) FY2025Q3 Earning Prediction

10/30 04:00:00

Pre-Market

Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA (BBVA) is set to release its FY2025Q3 earnings performance on 10/30 04:00:00 in Pre-Market trading. Consensus forecasts predict a revenue of 8.98B and an earnings per share (EPS) of 0.47 for the FY2025Q3. With Intellectia's exclusive AI algorithms, users can predict whether the earnings will beat or miss expectations before the report drops. Leverage this powerful tool to strategize and position your trades ahead of the earnings release!

Estimate

Actual

Surprise

RevenueBEAT

8.98B

9.10B

+1.31%

EPSBEAT

0.47

0.49

+4.26%

Slide

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AI Earnings Prediction

Prediction for FY2025Q3

Earnings Date: Oct 30, 2025

BBVA's earnings forecast is neutral due to balanced risks and opportunities, with efficiency gains offset by competitive pressures and modest revenue growth.

Neutral

Last 0 quarters:

4 beats1 misses

Scenario Analysis

The AI analyzes the probability of each scenario occurring and identifies the triggering conditions.

Scenario

Prob.

Stock Reaction

Trigger Condition

Strong Beat

15%

+3-5%

Loan growth >16% YoY and CET1 ratio >13.5%.

Beat

35%

+1-3%

EPS beats by >5% and efficiency ratio <38%.

Neutral

40%

Flat

Revenue meets consensus and EPS in line.

Miss

-2-4%

Net interest income growth <10% YoY.

Strong Miss

-5-7%

CET1 ratio decline and cost of risk >150 bps.

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Key Indicators Forecast

The AI provides itemized forecasts for key indicators, potentially including revenue, EPS, gross margin, and free cash flow.

Revenue

EPS

Currency:

No data

Actual

Estimate

Metric

Prediction

Justification

Revenue

Neutral

Competitive pressures in Germany and flat revenue estimate revisions (-0.78%) limit upside.

EPS

Beat

Efficiency improvements (37.6% ratio) and stable cost of risk (132 bps) likely drive margins above consensus.

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Prediction Logic & Rational

Fact Data Analysis

Competitive Pressures in Germany: JPMorgan's entry into German retail banking (via Chase) poses risks to BBVA's recently launched digital consumer bank. This could pressure net interest income and fee growth, a core metric for revenue.
Strategic Moves: BBVA’s decision to maintain its offer for Banco Sabadell signals growth ambitions, but the sale of Sabadell’s TSB to Santander reduces potential synergies, limiting upside to loan growth forecasts.
Mixed Analyst Sentiment: While Citi, RBC, and Deutsche Bank raised price targets, Morgan Stanley highlighted limited upside to consensus earnings, suggesting expectations are already elevated. Barclays’ upgrade cites strong Q2 momentum and capital returns, but valuation is termed "undemanding," implying limited room for surprise.
Efficiency vs. Revenue Tradeoff: Improved efficiency ratio ( 37.6%) and stable cost of risk (132 bps) support EPS, but revenue growth faces headwinds from competition and modest EPS estimate revisions (+ 3.7% over 3 months).

Prediction Logic & Rational

Tactical Strategy Recommendations

Short-Term Options Play: Sell straddles (neutral outlook) targeting a tight earnings-range outcome.
Hedge with Puts: Buy out-of-money puts (strike ~€18) to hedge against downside from loan growth misses.
Pairs Trade: Pair BBVA long with JPMorgan short to capitalize on divergent retail banking momentum in Europe.

Rationale: High stock price momentum (+15.65% vs. S&P 500) implies elevated expectations, but mixed catalysts (efficiency gains vs. revenue risks) favor neutral positioning.

Tactical Strategy Recommendations

Earnings Surprise Analysis

The chart displays the extent of earnings surprises and corresponding stock price movements for each earnings event.

Revenue

EPS

BBVA Transcript

Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria, S.A. (BBVA) Presents at JP Morgan European Insurance Conference 2025 Transcript

Neutral11-20

Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria, S.A. (BBVA) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Positive10-30

The earnings call summary highlights strong financial performance across regions, improved efficiency, and strategic growth in corporate loans. Net profit increases in key markets and disciplined cost management are positive indicators. The Q&A section reveals robust growth ambitions and a commitment to shareholder returns, despite some uncertainties in Mexico and Turkey. Management's proactive strategies and optimistic guidance, along with planned share buybacks, suggest a positive outlook for the stock price.

Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria, S.A. (BBVA) Presents at Bank of America 30th Annual Financials CEO Conference 2025 Transcript

Neutral9-16

Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria, S.A. (BBVA) Tender Offer To Banco Sabadell Shareholders Conference (Transcript)

Neutral9-5

BBVA Slides

BBVA Q3 2025 slides: Strong revenue growth overshadowed by earnings miss

2025-10-30

BBVA Report

BANCO BILBAO VIZCAYA ARGENTARIA, S.A. 6-K

6-K

2025-10-07

BANCO BILBAO VIZCAYA ARGENTARIA, S.A. 6-K

6-K

2025-08-29

BANCO BILBAO VIZCAYA ARGENTARIA, S.A. 6-K

6-K

2025-08-13

BANCO BILBAO VIZCAYA ARGENTARIA, S.A. 6-K

6-K

2025-06-25

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA FY2025Q3 Earnings Release Date and Time?

Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA (BBVA) is scheduled to release its FY2025Q3 earnings report onOct 30, 2025, Pre-Market(approximately 4:00 PM ET). This timing allows investors to react during after-hours trading, with a conference call typically following shortly after.

What Are the Consensus Forecasts for Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA FY2025Q3 Revenue and EPS?

Analysts' consensus predicts 8.98B in revenue and an EPS of 0.47 for Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA's FY2025Q3.

What Does Intellectia's AI Predict for Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA FY2025Q3 Earnings?

Intellectia's exclusive AI algorithms forecast a Neutral forBanco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA's FY2025Q3 earnings, with a prediction date of Oct 30, 2025. Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA BBVA's earnings forecast is neutral due to balanced risks and opportunities, with efficiency gains offset by competitive pressures and modest revenue growth.

How Can I Use This Earnings Prediction to Trade BBVA Stock?

Leverage Intellectia's AI forecast to position trades ahead of theOct 30, 2025 release—consider calls for a beat scenario or protective puts for misses. Focus on pre-market volatility, and use the scenario probabilities to build strategies around revenue and guidance updates.

How Accurate Is Intellectia's AI for Earnings Predictions Like Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA FY2025Q3?

Intellectia's predictions are backed by rigorous backtesting, showing a high hit rate for Beat and Miss calls compared to traditional analysis. While no forecast is 100% certain, we provide probability-based scenarios (e.g., 50% chance of a *Beat*) and detailed rationales to help you make informed decisions. Combine our insights with your strategy for the best results—it's like having a co-pilot for earnings season! Empowering users to strategize trades before reports drop.

How does AI Earnings Prediction generate its forecasts?

AI Earnings Prediction uses advanced Large Language Models (LLMs) to analyze a wealth of data, including past earnings transcripts, real-time market sentiment, analyst insights, and company news from the last three months. It focuses on key indicators like revenue, EPS, and margins to predict whether a company will *Beat*, *Miss*, or remain Neutral relative to market expectations. Think of it as a super-smart analyst crunching numbers and news 24/7 to give you a trading edge!

When are the predictions available, and how often are they updated?

Predictions are generated two days before a company’s earnings release (e.g., 5:00 PM ET on Feb 13 for a Feb 15 report) to capture the latest market and company data. They’re updated in real-time if significant news breaks, ensuring you get fresh insights.