ASML Holding NV (ASML) FY2025Q4 Earning Prediction
ASML Holding NV (ASML) is set to release its FY2025Q4 earnings performance on 01/28 05:00:00 in Pre-Market trading. Consensus forecasts predict a revenue of 11.00B and an earnings per share (EPS) of 9.01 for the FY2025Q4. With Intellectia's exclusive AI algorithms, users can predict whether the earnings will beat or miss expectations before the report drops. Leverage this powerful tool to strategize and position your trades ahead of the earnings release!
AI Earnings Prediction
The earnings forecast suggests a neutral outlook, with revenue likely beating expectations but offset by operational risks.
Scenario Analysis
Key Indicators Forecast
No data
Prediction Logic & Rational
Key Fact Data Analysis:
- DRAM Super Cycle & EUV Demand: Multiple analysts (Bernstein, RBC, Aletheia) highlight accelerating DRAM capacity expansion and EUV adoption driven by AI and HBM growth. This directly supports revenue upside from advanced lithography tools.
- China DUV Resilience: Bernstein notes "resilient" DUV orders from China, mitigating geopolitical risks and sustaining near-term revenue.
- Operational Risks: CEO Fouquet’s warnings about supply chain fragility (Nexperia dispute) and the U.S. government’s $150M investment in xLight (potential long-term competitor) introduce uncertainty around gross margins and market dominance.
- Analyst Sentiment: Majority of recent price target hikes (+20-40% revisions) reflect optimism, but Grupo Santander’s downgrade highlights that a "more positive scenario is already priced in," implying limited room for upside surprise.
Tactical Strategy Recommendations
- Options Plays:
- Bullish: Long Jan 2026 $1,450 calls (bet on DRAM/EUV momentum).
- Hedge: Buy protective puts (e.g., Jan 2026 $1,300) against supply chain risks.
- Stock: Avoid outright longs due to high embedded expectations; wait for post-earnings pullback.
- Pairs Trade: Long ASML vs. short semicap peers (KLAC/AMAT) to capitalize on EUV dominance.
Rationale: ASML’s premium valuation (36% stock surge since last earnings) leaves little margin for error. While DRAM/EUV tailwirds are real, supply chain and geopolitical risks justify caution.
Earnings Surprise Analysis
ASML Transcript
The earnings call and Q&A reveal strong demand for ASML's products, particularly EUV tools, and optimistic growth expectations despite some headwinds. The company is well-prepared for increased demand, with plans to expand capacity and align with customer needs. Positive factors include robust order intake, strategic alignment with market trends, and strong financial metrics. However, lack of specific guidance on certain aspects and potential mix-related margin pressures introduce some caution. Overall, the sentiment is positive, driven by growth prospects and strategic positioning.
The earnings call and Q&A highlight strong revenue growth expectations driven by AI demand, a significant increase in EUV capacity, and optimistic long-term revenue goals. Although there are challenges, such as margin dilution from High-NA tools and declining China revenue, the overall guidance is optimistic with a positive outlook for both DRAM and logic markets. Additionally, the focus on advanced packaging and AI developments provides a promising future. Despite some uncertainty in management responses, the positive factors outweigh the negatives, suggesting a positive stock price movement.
The earnings call reveals strong financial performance with a 10% YoY revenue increase and a 1.2% gross margin improvement. The positive sentiment is bolstered by a 10% dividend increase and a new €6 billion share buyback program. The partnership with Mistral AI and optimistic guidance for Q4 and 2025 further enhance the outlook. Despite a potential decline in Chinese demand, the overall market trends and strategic partnerships suggest a positive stock price movement over the next two weeks.
ASML Report
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the ASML Holding NV FY2025Q4 Earnings Release Date and Time?
ASML Holding NV (ASML) is scheduled to release its FY2025Q4 earnings report onJan 28, 2026, Pre-Market(approximately 4:00 PM ET). This timing allows investors to react during after-hours trading, with a conference call typically following shortly after.
What Are the Consensus Forecasts for ASML Holding NV FY2025Q4 Revenue and EPS?
Analysts' consensus predicts 11.00B in revenue and an EPS of 9.00 for ASML Holding NV's FY2025Q4.
What Does Intellectia's AI Predict for ASML Holding NV FY2025Q4 Earnings?
Intellectia's exclusive AI algorithms forecast a Neutral forASML Holding NV's FY2025Q4 earnings, with a prediction date of Jan 28, 2026. ASML Holding NV The earnings forecast suggests a neutral outlook, with revenue likely beating expectations but offset by operational risks.
How Can I Use This Earnings Prediction to Trade ASML Stock?
Leverage Intellectia's AI forecast to position trades ahead of theJan 28, 2026 release—consider calls for a beat scenario or protective puts for misses. Focus on pre-market volatility, and use the scenario probabilities to build strategies around revenue and guidance updates.
How Accurate Is Intellectia's AI for Earnings Predictions Like ASML Holding NV FY2025Q4?
Intellectia's predictions are backed by rigorous backtesting, showing a high hit rate for Beat and Miss calls compared to traditional analysis. While no forecast is 100% certain, we provide probability-based scenarios (e.g., 50% chance of a *Beat*) and detailed rationales to help you make informed decisions. Combine our insights with your strategy for the best results—it's like having a co-pilot for earnings season! Empowering users to strategize trades before reports drop.
How does AI Earnings Prediction generate its forecasts?
AI Earnings Prediction uses advanced Large Language Models (LLMs) to analyze a wealth of data, including past earnings transcripts, real-time market sentiment, analyst insights, and company news from the last three months. It focuses on key indicators like revenue, EPS, and margins to predict whether a company will *Beat*, *Miss*, or remain Neutral relative to market expectations. Think of it as a super-smart analyst crunching numbers and news 24/7 to give you a trading edge!
When are the predictions available, and how often are they updated?
Predictions are generated two days before a company’s earnings release (e.g., 5:00 PM ET on Feb 13 for a Feb 15 report) to capture the latest market and company data. They’re updated in real-time if significant news breaks, ensuring you get fresh insights.
Can I use AI Earnings Prediction for all types of stocks?
Currently, AI Earnings Prediction focuses on companies with market caps above $40 billion, covering major players like SPG, AAPL, MSFT, and NVDA for the 2025-2026 earnings seasons. We prioritize high-impact stocks with robust data to ensure reliable forecasts. Stay tuned as we expand coverage to more companies based on user demand!
