Arm Holdings PLC (ARM) FY2026Q2 Earning Prediction
Arm Holdings PLC (ARM) is set to release its FY2026Q2 earnings performance on 11/05 16:04:00 ET in After Hours trading. Consensus forecasts predict a revenue of 1.06B and an earnings per share (EPS) of 0.33 for the FY2026Q2. With Intellectia's exclusive AI algorithms, users can predict whether the earnings will beat or miss expectations before the report drops. Leverage this powerful tool to strategize and position your trades ahead of the earnings release!
AI Earnings Prediction
Arm's positive earnings forecast is supported by strategic partnerships, legal outcomes, and adoption momentum, but tempered by risks in licensing timing and R&D expenses.
Scenario Analysis
Key Indicators Forecast
No data
Prediction Logic & Rational
Arm's Fact Data highlights multiple catalysts that could drive better-than-expected results on key metrics:
- AI Partnerships: Strategic alliances with Meta and OpenAI aim to enhance AI efficiency and chip development, likely accelerating royalty/licensing revenue from high-growth AI markets.
- Legal Victory: The Qualcomm lawsuit dismissal removes uncertainty around royalty/licensing agreements, ensuring stable revenue streams.
- Adoption Momentum: Qualcomm’s integration of Armv9 architecture into chips (Reuters) and Microsoft’s expansion of Arm-based gaming PCs signal increased royalty revenue from smartphones and IoT.
- New Licensing Deals: The hiring of Amazon’s AI chip director (Reuters) and collaborations with OpenAI/Meta suggest progress in securing multigenerational GPU/CSS agreements, supporting licensing revenue recovery.
While the stock’s ** 19.9% rally** (vs. S&P 500’s 8.56%) reflects high expectations, the Fact Data suggests incremental upside from accelerating AI adoption, resolved litigation, and licensing momentum. However, R&D expense timing and licensing deal finalization risks temper the case for a "Strong Beat."
Tactical Strategy Recommendations
Equity: Buy shares ahead of earnings for a tactical trade, given upside skew. Options:
- Bullish: Nov 8 $170/$180 call spread (cost: ~$4.50).
- Hedge: Long Nov 8 $160 put (premium: ~$6.00) to offset downside risk. Caution: Trim positions if stock rallies >5% pre-earnings, as expectations are elevated.
Key Risks: Licensing deal timing, R&D expense creep, or smartphone demand slowdown.
Earnings Surprise Analysis
ARM Transcript
The earnings call reveals strong financial performance with a 25% revenue growth, robust ACV growth, and a positive outlook on AI trends. Although there are concerns about royalty revenue deceleration and smartphone volume impacts, these are offset by growth in Cloud AI and infrastructure. Management's commitment to R&D and strategic partnerships further enhance the positive sentiment. The Q&A reassures investors about potential risks, and guidance on non-GAAP EPS aligns with expectations. The overall sentiment is positive, likely leading to a stock price increase of 2% to 8% over the next two weeks.
The earnings call summary reveals strong financial performance with significant year-on-year growth in revenue, operating income, and EPS. The Q&A section highlights strategic positioning in the AI market, partnerships with major tech companies, and a promising acquisition. Despite some vague responses, the overall sentiment is positive due to robust demand, improved margins, and optimistic guidance. The strong growth in royalties and licensing, alongside strategic investments in R&D and AI, further supports a positive outlook. The lack of market cap data suggests a potentially strong stock price reaction.
The earnings call summary is generally positive, with record high revenues, strong royalty growth, and optimistic guidance. The Q&A section reveals some uncertainties, particularly around specific strategy details and market entry, but overall sentiment remains positive due to strong market positioning and growth prospects. The Q1 results exceeded expectations, and the guidance suggests continued growth. The lack of full-year guidance is a minor concern, but not enough to overshadow the positive indicators. Therefore, the stock price is likely to see a positive movement in the short term.
Arm's earnings call indicates strong financial performance with record high revenue, significant licensing growth, and optimistic guidance for royalty revenue. The strategic initiatives, including AI partnerships and custom silicon demand, are positive indicators. While there are risks related to regulatory issues and economic factors, the company's strong market position and growth in key sectors like automotive and hyperscalers mitigate these concerns. The lack of a share repurchase program is a minor negative, but overall, the financial health and strategic direction suggest a positive stock price movement.
ARM Report
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Arm Holdings PLC FY2026Q2 Earnings Release Date and Time?
Arm Holdings PLC (ARM) is scheduled to release its FY2026Q2 earnings report on Nov 5, 2025, After Hours (approximately 4:00 PM ET). This timing allows investors to react during after-hours trading, with a conference call typically following shortly after.
What Are the Consensus Forecasts for Arm Holdings PLC FY2026Q2 Revenue and EPS?
Analysts' consensus predicts 1.06B in revenue and an EPS of 0.33 for Arm Holdings PLC's FY2026Q2.
What Does Intellectia's AI Predict for Arm Holdings PLC FY2026Q2 Earnings?
Intellectia's exclusive AI algorithms forecast a Beat for Arm Holdings PLC's FY2026Q2 earnings, with a prediction date of Nov 5, 2025. Arm Holdings PLC Arm's positive earnings forecast is supported by strategic partnerships, legal outcomes, and adoption momentum, but tempered by risks in licensing timing and R&D expenses.
How Can I Use This Earnings Prediction to Trade ARM Stock?
Leverage Intellectia's AI forecast to position trades ahead of the Nov 5, 2025 release—consider calls for a beat scenario or protective puts for misses. Focus on pre-market volatility, and use the scenario probabilities to build strategies around revenue and guidance updates.
How Accurate Is Intellectia's AI for Earnings Predictions Like Arm Holdings PLC FY2026Q2?
Intellectia's predictions are backed by rigorous backtesting, showing a high hit rate for Beat and Miss calls compared to traditional analysis. While no forecast is 100% certain, we provide probability-based scenarios (e.g., 50% chance of a *Beat*) and detailed rationales to help you make informed decisions. Combine our insights with your strategy for the best results—it's like having a co-pilot for earnings season! Empowering users to strategize trades before reports drop.
How does AI Earnings Prediction generate its forecasts?
AI Earnings Prediction uses advanced Large Language Models (LLMs) to analyze a wealth of data, including past earnings transcripts, real-time market sentiment, analyst insights, and company news from the last three months. It focuses on key indicators like revenue, EPS, and margins to predict whether a company will *Beat*, *Miss*, or remain Neutral relative to market expectations. Think of it as a super-smart analyst crunching numbers and news 24/7 to give you a trading edge!
When are the predictions available, and how often are they updated?
Predictions are generated two days before a company's earnings release (e.g., 5:00 PM ET on Feb 13 for a Feb 15 report) to capture the latest market and company data. They're updated in real-time if significant news breaks, ensuring you get fresh insights.
Can I use AI Earnings Prediction for all types of stocks?
Currently, AI Earnings Prediction focuses on companies with market caps above $40 billion, covering major players like SPG, AAPL, MSFT, and NVDA for the 2025-2026 earnings seasons. We prioritize high-impact stocks with robust data to ensure reliable forecasts. Stay tuned as we expand coverage to more companies based on user demand!
