Arm Holdings PLC (ARM) FY2026Q1 Earning Prediction
Arm Holdings PLC (ARM) is set to release its FY2026Q1 earnings performance on 07/30 16:04:00 ET in After Hours trading. Consensus forecasts predict a revenue of 1.06B and an earnings per share (EPS) of 0.35 for the FY2026Q1. With Intellectia's exclusive AI algorithms, users can predict whether the earnings will beat or miss expectations before the report drops. Leverage this powerful tool to strategize and position your trades ahead of the earnings release!
AI Earnings Prediction
Arm's growth fundamentals are strong, but valuation concerns and mixed market catalysts lead to a Neutral earnings forecast.
Scenario Analysis
Key Indicators Forecast
No data
Prediction Logic & Rational
Logic & Justification
Key Fact Data Analysis:
- Mixed Analyst Sentiment:
Bullish Signals: BNP Paribas Exane and Mizuho highlight Arm’s ASIC opportunity and data center/AI growth potential. Arm’s server CPU launch and market share gains against Intel/AMD ( 13.6% MPU share) support royalty/licensing growth.
Bearish Signals: Oddo BHF and Goldman Sachs cite valuation concerns (stock doubled since April) and limited near-term upside. Loop Capital notes increased operating expense guidance.
- Product Momentum vs. Execution Risk:
Arm’s server CPU launch could drive future licensing revenue but risks alienating existing partners (e.g., Qualcomm, NVIDIA).
Market share gains in MPUs (Citi data) suggest strong royalty revenue, but Q1 is seasonally weak for smartphones, a key royalty driver.
- Valuation Constraints:
- The stock’s ** 33.7% rally** (vs. S&P 500’s 10.85%) implies high expectations. Even a modest beat may trigger profit-taking given the demanding P/E ratio (~80x).
- Operating Expense Pressure:
- Loop Capital flagged elevated opex guidance, which could offset revenue growth and limit EPS upside.
Tactical Strategy Recommendations
Trading Strategy
Options Play (Earnings Straddle):
- Buy ATM puts/calls expiring August 1. Volatility skewed toward downside due to valuation risks.
- Rationale: High IV (~70%) post-rally; neutral catalyst likelihood favors volatility crush.
Pairs Trade (vs. Intel/AMD):
- Short ARM, long INTC/AMD. Arm’s valuation disconnect vs. peers (Intel P/E 15x) creates mean-reversion potential.
Post-Earnings Swing:
- If Neutral/Beat: Sell into rally (resistance at $170).
- If Miss: Buy dip toward $140 (200-day MA support).
Earnings Surprise Analysis
ARM Transcript
The earnings call reveals strong financial performance with a 25% revenue growth, robust ACV growth, and a positive outlook on AI trends. Although there are concerns about royalty revenue deceleration and smartphone volume impacts, these are offset by growth in Cloud AI and infrastructure. Management's commitment to R&D and strategic partnerships further enhance the positive sentiment. The Q&A reassures investors about potential risks, and guidance on non-GAAP EPS aligns with expectations. The overall sentiment is positive, likely leading to a stock price increase of 2% to 8% over the next two weeks.
The earnings call summary reveals strong financial performance with significant year-on-year growth in revenue, operating income, and EPS. The Q&A section highlights strategic positioning in the AI market, partnerships with major tech companies, and a promising acquisition. Despite some vague responses, the overall sentiment is positive due to robust demand, improved margins, and optimistic guidance. The strong growth in royalties and licensing, alongside strategic investments in R&D and AI, further supports a positive outlook. The lack of market cap data suggests a potentially strong stock price reaction.
The earnings call summary is generally positive, with record high revenues, strong royalty growth, and optimistic guidance. The Q&A section reveals some uncertainties, particularly around specific strategy details and market entry, but overall sentiment remains positive due to strong market positioning and growth prospects. The Q1 results exceeded expectations, and the guidance suggests continued growth. The lack of full-year guidance is a minor concern, but not enough to overshadow the positive indicators. Therefore, the stock price is likely to see a positive movement in the short term.
Arm's earnings call indicates strong financial performance with record high revenue, significant licensing growth, and optimistic guidance for royalty revenue. The strategic initiatives, including AI partnerships and custom silicon demand, are positive indicators. While there are risks related to regulatory issues and economic factors, the company's strong market position and growth in key sectors like automotive and hyperscalers mitigate these concerns. The lack of a share repurchase program is a minor negative, but overall, the financial health and strategic direction suggest a positive stock price movement.
ARM Report
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Arm Holdings PLC FY2026Q1 Earnings Release Date and Time?
Arm Holdings PLC (ARM) is scheduled to release its FY2026Q1 earnings report on Jul 30, 2025, After Hours (approximately 4:00 PM ET). This timing allows investors to react during after-hours trading, with a conference call typically following shortly after.
What Are the Consensus Forecasts for Arm Holdings PLC FY2026Q1 Revenue and EPS?
Analysts' consensus predicts 1.06B in revenue and an EPS of 0.35 for Arm Holdings PLC's FY2026Q1.
What Does Intellectia's AI Predict for Arm Holdings PLC FY2026Q1 Earnings?
Intellectia's exclusive AI algorithms forecast a Neutral for Arm Holdings PLC's FY2026Q1 earnings, with a prediction date of Jul 30, 2025. Arm Holdings PLC Arm's growth fundamentals are strong, but valuation concerns and mixed market catalysts lead to a Neutral earnings forecast.
How Can I Use This Earnings Prediction to Trade ARM Stock?
Leverage Intellectia's AI forecast to position trades ahead of the Jul 30, 2025 release—consider calls for a beat scenario or protective puts for misses. Focus on pre-market volatility, and use the scenario probabilities to build strategies around revenue and guidance updates.
How Accurate Is Intellectia's AI for Earnings Predictions Like Arm Holdings PLC FY2026Q1?
Intellectia's predictions are backed by rigorous backtesting, showing a high hit rate for Beat and Miss calls compared to traditional analysis. While no forecast is 100% certain, we provide probability-based scenarios (e.g., 50% chance of a *Beat*) and detailed rationales to help you make informed decisions. Combine our insights with your strategy for the best results—it's like having a co-pilot for earnings season! Empowering users to strategize trades before reports drop.
How does AI Earnings Prediction generate its forecasts?
AI Earnings Prediction uses advanced Large Language Models (LLMs) to analyze a wealth of data, including past earnings transcripts, real-time market sentiment, analyst insights, and company news from the last three months. It focuses on key indicators like revenue, EPS, and margins to predict whether a company will *Beat*, *Miss*, or remain Neutral relative to market expectations. Think of it as a super-smart analyst crunching numbers and news 24/7 to give you a trading edge!
When are the predictions available, and how often are they updated?
Predictions are generated two days before a company's earnings release (e.g., 5:00 PM ET on Feb 13 for a Feb 15 report) to capture the latest market and company data. They're updated in real-time if significant news breaks, ensuring you get fresh insights.
Can I use AI Earnings Prediction for all types of stocks?
Currently, AI Earnings Prediction focuses on companies with market caps above $40 billion, covering major players like SPG, AAPL, MSFT, and NVDA for the 2025-2026 earnings seasons. We prioritize high-impact stocks with robust data to ensure reliable forecasts. Stay tuned as we expand coverage to more companies based on user demand!
