American International Group Inc (AIG) FY2025Q3 Earning Prediction
American International Group Inc (AIG) is set to release its FY2025Q3 earnings performance on 11/04 16:16:00 ET in After Hours trading. Consensus forecasts predict a revenue of 6.93B and an earnings per share (EPS) of 1.68 for the FY2025Q3. With Intellectia's exclusive AI algorithms, users can predict whether the earnings will beat or miss expectations before the report drops. Leverage this powerful tool to strategize and position your trades ahead of the earnings release!
AI Earnings Prediction
AIG is expected to outperform consensus EPS predictions due to reduced catastrophe losses and stable investment income growth, despite challenges in premium growth.
Scenario Analysis
Key Indicators Forecast
No data
Prediction Logic & Rational
Key Fact Data Insights:
- Lower Catastrophe Losses: Analysts highlighted Q3 as a "relatively calm" hurricane season (BofA, UBS), reducing claims expenses. This directly improves the accident year combined ratio, a critical underwriting metric.
- Strategic Portfolio Optimization: AIG’s $2B commitment to Onex-managed funds signals proactive capital deployment, but its impact on Q3 net investment income is muted due to delayed closing (2026).
- Premium Growth Headwinds: Piper Sandler noted a "tougher comp" in North America Commercial due to a one-time Q3 2024 event, limiting net premiums written growth despite the Everest renewal rights deal (effective post-Q3).
- EPS Tailwinds: Reduced catastrophe losses and stable investment income growth (9% YoY) support adjusted after-tax income, likely exceeding consensus despite softer premium growth.
Tactical Strategy Recommendations
Bullish Plays Ahead of Earnings:
- Long Stock: Given low relative performance (0.92% vs. S&P 500’s 8.4%) and EPS upside potential.
- Nov 2025 $80 Calls: Capitalize on volatility crush post-earnings if EPS beats.
- Bull Put Spread: Sell $75/$70 puts to monetize elevated implied volatility.
Risks: Slower commercial P&C growth (Morgan Stanley) or delayed investment synergies could limit upside.
Earnings Surprise Analysis
AIG Transcript
The earnings call highlights strong financial performance, including a significant increase in net investment income and book value per share. The company's strategic plans, such as AI initiatives and partnerships with Convex and Everest, are poised to enhance profitability and operational efficiency. The Q&A section provided clarity on strategic partnerships and liquidity, although some responses lacked specifics. Overall, the positive financial metrics, strategic initiatives, and increased shareholder returns outweigh the minor concerns, suggesting a positive stock price movement.
The earnings call reveals strong financial performance with a 17% increase in net investment income and improved combined ratios, despite some increases in certain areas. The Q&A section highlights positive sentiment towards AIG's growth potential and capital management strategy, with no significant risks identified. The strategic initiatives, including the Tata AIG partnership and GenAI deployment, further enhance growth prospects. The share repurchase plan and dividend growth also contribute to a positive outlook. Overall, these factors suggest a positive stock price movement.
The earnings call reflects a mixed outlook. Positive elements include increased dividends and share repurchases, and growth in net premiums written. However, the financial results show a decline in adjusted pre-tax income due to catastrophe losses, and management provided vague responses in the Q&A, indicating uncertainty. The financial metrics were not strong enough to counterbalance these concerns, and the lack of clear guidance on pricing metrics and mix shift impacts suggests potential challenges ahead. Overall, the sentiment remains neutral, with no significant factors to drive a strong stock price movement.
AIG Report
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the American International Group Inc FY2025Q3 Earnings Release Date and Time?
American International Group Inc (AIG) is scheduled to release its FY2025Q3 earnings report onNov 4, 2025, After Hours(approximately 4:00 PM ET). This timing allows investors to react during after-hours trading, with a conference call typically following shortly after.
What Are the Consensus Forecasts for American International Group Inc FY2025Q3 Revenue and EPS?
Analysts' consensus predicts 6.93B in revenue and an EPS of 1.68 for American International Group Inc's FY2025Q3.
What Does Intellectia's AI Predict for American International Group Inc FY2025Q3 Earnings?
Intellectia's exclusive AI algorithms forecast a Beat forAmerican International Group Inc's FY2025Q3 earnings, with a prediction date of Nov 4, 2025. American International Group Inc AIG is expected to outperform consensus EPS predictions due to reduced catastrophe losses and stable investment income growth, despite challenges in premium growth.
How Can I Use This Earnings Prediction to Trade AIG Stock?
Leverage Intellectia's AI forecast to position trades ahead of theNov 4, 2025 release—consider calls for a beat scenario or protective puts for misses. Focus on pre-market volatility, and use the scenario probabilities to build strategies around revenue and guidance updates.
How Accurate Is Intellectia's AI for Earnings Predictions Like American International Group Inc FY2025Q3?
Intellectia's predictions are backed by rigorous backtesting, showing a high hit rate for Beat and Miss calls compared to traditional analysis. While no forecast is 100% certain, we provide probability-based scenarios (e.g., 50% chance of a *Beat*) and detailed rationales to help you make informed decisions. Combine our insights with your strategy for the best results—it's like having a co-pilot for earnings season! Empowering users to strategize trades before reports drop.
How does AI Earnings Prediction generate its forecasts?
AI Earnings Prediction uses advanced Large Language Models (LLMs) to analyze a wealth of data, including past earnings transcripts, real-time market sentiment, analyst insights, and company news from the last three months. It focuses on key indicators like revenue, EPS, and margins to predict whether a company will *Beat*, *Miss*, or remain Neutral relative to market expectations. Think of it as a super-smart analyst crunching numbers and news 24/7 to give you a trading edge!
When are the predictions available, and how often are they updated?
Predictions are generated two days before a company’s earnings release (e.g., 5:00 PM ET on Feb 13 for a Feb 15 report) to capture the latest market and company data. They’re updated in real-time if significant news breaks, ensuring you get fresh insights.
