XPEL, Inc. (XPEL) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript
Access earnings results, analyst expectations, report, slides, earnings call, and transcript.
Overview
The earnings call highlights strong financial performance, including a 37.6% EBITDA growth and 50.7% net income increase, despite some regional revenue declines. The company’s optimistic guidance for 2026, improved gross margins, and strategic focus on OEM expansion and share repurchases are positive indicators. The Q&A section reveals confidence in overcoming margin headwinds and potential growth through manufacturing decisions. While some uncertainties remain, the overall sentiment is positive, suggesting a likely 2% to 8% stock price increase over the next two weeks.
Key Financial Performance
Q4 Revenue Grew 13.7% year-over-year. Reasons include good momentum in the U.S. region and growth in corporate stores, dealership service business, and aftermarket.
Q4 EBITDA Grew 37.6% year-over-year. Reasons include good operating leverage and managing through added channel costs.
U.S. Region Revenue Grew 11% year-over-year. Reasons include alignment with macro car sales trends and impact of EV credit expiration.
China Revenue (Post-Acquisition) $14 million for Q4, slightly higher than expected. Reasons include integration efforts and growth in aftermarket, dealership, and OEM partnerships.
Canada Revenue Declined slightly year-over-year. Reasons include a 13% sequential decline in car sales from Q3 to Q4.
Europe Revenue Grew 26.8% year-over-year in Q4. Reasons include strong performance across multiple channels.
India and Middle East Revenue Showed growth but impacted by timing of distributor orders. Reasons include activation in all channel types in India.
Latin America Revenue Flat year-over-year. Reasons include weakness in Brazil due to conversion into a direct market.
Gross Margin (Q4) 41.9%, relatively flat to Q3. Reasons include price increases and selling through acquired inventory from the China distributor purchase.
Top Line Growth (2025) 13.3% year-over-year. Reasons include managing headwinds in gross margin and completing the strategy of being direct in top car markets.
Window Film Product Line Revenue Grew 10% in Q4 and 21.7% for the year. Reasons include market share gains in auto and new windshield protection film product.
Total Installation Revenue Grew 17% in Q4 and 17.2% for the year. Reasons include solid performance in core channels.
SG&A Expenses (Q4) Grew 13.9% year-over-year to $35.7 million, representing 29.2% of total revenue. Reasons include elevated costs due to the largest trade show of the year.
EBITDA Margin (Q4) 16%, with EBITDA growing 37.6% year-over-year to $19.6 million. Reasons include good operating leverage and cost management.
Net Income Attributable to Stockholders (Q4) Grew 50.7% year-over-year to $13.4 million, reflecting an 11% net income margin. Reasons include tax advantages and FX effects.
Operating Income (Q4) Increased 25.4% year-over-year. Reasons include strong revenue and cost management.
EPS (Q4) $0.48 per share, reflecting strong net income growth.
Cash Flow from Operations (2025) $66.9 million, 40% higher than last year. Reasons include alignment with revenue cyclicality and strong operational performance.
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Operating Highlights
Window film product line: Grew 10% in Q4 and 21.7% for the year, driven by market share gains in auto and new windshield protection film.
China distribution acquisition: First full quarter of post-acquisition revenue at $14 million, higher than expected. Integration efforts are underway, targeting growth in aftermarket, dealership, and OEM partnerships.
Regional performance: U.S. revenue grew 11% in Q4 despite EV credit expiration impact. Europe saw 26.8% revenue growth in Q4. Canada faced headwinds with revenue declining slightly. India and Middle East showed positive signs, while Latin America remained flat due to Brazil's conversion to a direct market.
Gross margin: Finished Q4 at 41.9%, relatively flat to Q3. Expected to improve as the year progresses.
SG&A expenses: Grew 13.9% in Q4 to $35.7 million, representing 29.2% of total revenue. Growth rates moderated in the second half of the year.
Focus on core products: Shifted strategy to prioritize core products and immediate adjacencies, moving away from incremental product additions.
Manufacturing and supply chain investments: Plans and strategy remain on track, with more updates expected in the coming months.
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Risk or Challenges
EV Credit Expiration Impact: The expiration of EV credits negatively impacted U.S. revenue in Q4, costing the company an estimated $1-2 million in end product demand from the referral program channel.
Canada Market Weakness: Revenue in Canada declined slightly due to a 13% sequential drop in car sales in Q4, continuing a year-long trend of challenges in this market.
Latin America Weakness: Revenue in Latin America remained flat, with ongoing weakness from Q3 into Q4, partly due to the conversion of Brazil into a direct market.
China Integration Costs: The integration of the China distribution acquisition involved selling through acquired inventory at a stepped-up cost basis, leading to lower gross margins.
Supply Chain and Manufacturing Investments: Planned investments in manufacturing and supply chain could lead to incremental costs before realizing any cost-of-goods-sold (COGS) savings.
SG&A Expenses: SG&A expenses grew 13.9% in Q4, partly due to elevated costs from the largest trade show of the year, impacting overall profitability.
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Guidance & Outlook
Revenue Expectations: The company expects Q1 2026 revenue to be in the range of $112 million to $114 million, considering ongoing U.S. trends, continued softness in Canada, and the impact of the Chinese New Year.
Gross Margin Projections: Gross margins are expected to improve as 2026 progresses, driven by managing price increases and selling through acquired inventory from the China distributor purchase.
Regional Growth Expectations: The company anticipates growth in all customer types and geographies, including retail customers, aftermarket installers, car dealers, and car manufacturers. Specific optimism is noted for the U.S., Europe, India, and the Middle East.
China Market Outlook: Post-acquisition China revenue is expected to align with end-market demand after Q1 2026, with growth anticipated in the aftermarket, dealership, and OEM partnership segments.
Manufacturing and Supply Chain Investments: The company plans to continue investments in manufacturing and supply chain, with more updates expected in the coming months. These investments are expected to drive cost savings and operational efficiencies in the future.
Operating Leverage and Cost Management: Regional leaders are budgeted to grow their operating leverage in 2026, combined with expected gross margin growth to benefit the operating line of the business.
Product Strategy: The company has pivoted to focus on core products and immediate adjacencies, aiming to drive growth by selling more of its core offerings rather than incremental product additions.
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Shareholder Return Plan
Share Buyback: Early in the quarter, we did buy back a relatively small amount of shares to the tune of approximately $3 million. As we've discussed on our last call, our capital allocation strategy is centered on investing in the core of the business, including manufacturing and supply chain. We'll continue to evaluate further buybacks relative to our planned investments in M&A and M&A, I should say, with an appetite for modest leverage to accelerate our returns.
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Key Q&A
Q:What is contemplated in the Q1 revenue guide, considering factors like auto demand, weather impacts, and EV mix changes?
A:Ryan Pape explained that the Q1 revenue guide factors in various elements such as weather impacts, EV mix changes, and the seasonality of March being a critical month. He noted that forecasting is based on a process that continues to improve but is subject to limitations. He also mentioned that different customer types (OEM, dealership, distributor, aftermarket) have varying drivers, and March is pivotal for aftermarket activity.
Q:How do you see the in-house manufacturing playing out over time?
A:Ryan Pape stated that the approach could be either a gradual build-out or involve adding bigger chunks, depending on final decisions. He mentioned that decisions around this would be made in March or April and could involve internal new builds, M&A, or JV opportunities, leading to either incremental or step changes in margin expansion.
Q:What is causing the DSOs to trend up slightly?
A:Barry Wood attributed the slight increase in DSOs to new OEM business with longer terms. Ryan Pape added that there is no degradation in timely payments in the aftermarket, indicating healthy channel conditions.
Q:What underpins your optimism for 2026?
A:Ryan Pape highlighted qualitative factors like increased optimism from the team and customers, structural factors like vehicle affordability improvements, and a strong pipeline of new customer wins. He also noted that demand for competitors is down, but their results and pipeline remain positive, indicating growth potential.
Q:How do you expect gross margin to trend this year, and any thoughts on Q1 gross margin?
A:Ryan Pape expects gross margin headwinds to abate by Q2, with gross margins reaching or exceeding previous best levels. He mentioned that corporate SG&A has been managed better, and regional leaders are budgeted to drive increased operating margins. However, supply chain and manufacturing decisions could impact margins.
Q:Review of Unclear Management Responses
A:Management appeared to avoid giving a direct answer to the question about the cadence of margin expansion related to in-house manufacturing. Ryan Pape stated that it could be either a gradual build-out or involve adding bigger chunks, depending on decisions to be made in March or April, but did not provide specific details or clarity on the expected approach.
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Earnings Word Cloud
The most frequently occurring keywords in this quarter's earning call
AI field
America Weakness
Belodeau IMS
Brazil market
COGS saving
Canada car
Canada consideration
China dealership
EV credit
India
acquisition
buyer
car sale
case
core product
credit expiration
customer type
demand program
effort
feedback
headwind
investment manufacturing
leverage
manufacturing supply
month
plan
presence
sale channel
sort
spot
supply chain
trend term
validation
world
XPEL Transcript
XPEL, Inc. (XPEL) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript
Positive2-25
The earnings call highlights strong financial performance, including a 37.6% EBITDA growth and 50.7% net income increase, despite some regional revenue declines. The company’s optimistic guidance for 2026, improved gross margins, and strategic focus on OEM expansion and share repurchases are positive indicators. The Q&A section reveals confidence in overcoming margin headwinds and potential growth through manufacturing decisions. While some uncertainties remain, the overall sentiment is positive, suggesting a likely 2% to 8% stock price increase over the next two weeks.
XPEL, Inc. (XPEL) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript
Unknown11-5
Despite strong revenue growth and product launches, challenges like OEM disruptions, SG&A cost increases, and unclear guidance affect sentiment. The Q&A revealed mixed market sentiment and lack of specific guidance. However, optimism in product demand, margin improvement, and share repurchases balance the negatives, resulting in a neutral outlook.
XPEL, Inc. (XPEL) Q2 2025 Earnings Call Transcript
Positive8-6
The earnings call reveals strong financial performance with significant revenue and EBITDA growth, a robust share repurchase plan, and positive developments in product launches and services expansion. Despite some concerns over M&A risks and vague guidance on U.S. market growth, the overall sentiment is positive. The Q&A section highlights growth opportunities in dealer services and personalization platforms. Given these factors, the stock price is likely to see a positive movement, especially with optimistic revenue growth and strategic initiatives.
XPEL, Inc. (XPEL) Q1 2025 Earnings Call Transcript
Unknown5-6
The earnings call presents a mixed outlook: strong financial performance with 15.2% revenue growth and a $50 million share repurchase plan are positive. However, challenges like poor Canadian market sentiment, tariff risks, and competitive pressures create uncertainties. The Q&A reveals management's evasive responses on potential risks, adding to the uncertainty. The combination of these factors suggests a neutral market reaction, with potential for slight positive or negative movements within the -2% to 2% range.
XPEL Report
Frequently Asked Questions
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