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01/11 16:20
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Access earnings results, analyst expectations, report, slides, earnings call, and transcript.
The earnings call highlights strong revenue growth, strategic partnerships, and a robust digital expansion plan. The Q&A session revealed positive analyst sentiment towards 4G and AI strategies, despite some uncertainties in valuation strategies. The company's solid financial metrics, optimistic guidance, and shareholder return plans, along with strategic partnerships, are likely to positively influence the stock price. Given the market cap, a positive reaction is expected within the 2% to 8% range over the next two weeks.
Revenue $1.09 billion for Q2 2025, up 5.9% year-on-year in U.S. dollar terms and 11.2% in local currency terms. Growth attributed to strong performance across operating markets and digital services.
EBITDA $520 million for Q2 2025, up 13.2% year-on-year in U.S. dollar terms and 19.6% in local currency terms. Growth driven by operating leverage, disciplined cost control, and digital services expansion.
Digital Revenue $180 million for Q2 2025, up 56.6% year-on-year in U.S. dollar terms and 62.4% in local currency terms. Growth driven by financial services, entertainment, super apps, and ride-hailing services.
EBITDA Margin 47.8% for Q2 2025, up year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter. Growth reflects operating leverage and cost control.
Net Debt (excluding leases) $1.96 billion as of June 2025. Reflects bond repayments and Uklon acquisition.
Cash Balance $1.28 billion as of June 2025, including $206 million at headquarters. Reflects bond repayments and Uklon acquisition.
Equity Free Cash Flow $611 million for the last 12 months, up 33.7% year-on-year. Growth driven by operational and financial discipline and asset-light strategy.
4G Penetration 68% of the customer base, up 4.6 percentage points year-on-year. Growth driven by increased adoption of digital services.
Multiplay Revenue Contribution 54.4% of total revenues for Q2 2025, up 26.8% year-on-year in local currency terms. Growth driven by higher customer engagement and ARPU expansion.
JazzCash Transaction Value 43% year-on-year growth in gross transaction value for Q2 2025. Represents 12% of Pakistan's GDP.
Digital Services Portfolio Expansion: Direct digital revenues grew by 57% year-on-year in dollar terms, now contributing 16.5% of total group revenues. Uklon acquisition in April 2025 marked a key milestone in digital expansion strategy.
4G and Multiplay Growth: 4G penetration increased to 68%, driving Multiplay adoption. Multiplay customers now generate 54.4% of total revenues, growing 26.8% year-on-year in local currency.
Geographic Revenue Growth: Double-digit revenue growth in all markets except Bangladesh. Ukraine's Kyivstar revenues grew 25.9% year-on-year.
Kyivstar NASDAQ Listing: Progress on Kyivstar's proposed NASDAQ listing through a business combination with Cohen Circle Acquisition Corp. I, expected to close post shareholder approval.
Asset-Light Strategy: Closed strategic infrastructure pooling partnership with Engro in Pakistan. Progress in launching direct-to-cell satellite communications in Ukraine with Starlink.
Financial Flexibility: Completed $100 million share buyback program, repaid April and June bond maturities, and issued $200 million private bond.
Digital Operator Strategy: Focus on asset-light model, underserved markets, and expanding digital services. Transactions like Uklon acquisition and Deodar tower sales align with this strategy.
Financial Services Growth: JazzCash transaction value rose 43% year-on-year, representing 12% of Pakistan's GDP. Financial services now account for 57% of total digital revenue.
Macroeconomic and Geopolitical Volatility: The company acknowledges the challenges posed by global macroeconomic and geopolitical volatility, which could impact operations and financial performance.
Inflationary Pressures: Weighted average inflation across markets increased to 8.7% in Q2, up from previous quarters. This could affect cost structures and pricing strategies.
Regulatory and Tax Changes: Tax and regulatory changes in markets like Kazakhstan and Bangladesh have impacted profitability trends, posing ongoing challenges.
Noncash Accounting Charges: Upcoming transactions, such as the Kyivstar listing and Kyrgyzstan operations sale, are expected to result in noncash charges of $150 million to $200 million in Q3, potentially affecting financial results.
Bangladesh Market Recovery: Revenue growth in Bangladesh remains weak, with only a 5.1% quarter-on-quarter increase, indicating slow recovery in consumer sentiment.
Digital Services Margins: While digital services are growing, their structurally lower margins compared to telecom services could impact overall profitability.
Debt and Financial Flexibility: The company has $1.96 billion in net debt (excluding leases) and is managing bond repayments and new issuances, which could strain financial flexibility.
Seasonality in Digital Engagement: Digital engagement in markets like Pakistan is affected by seasonality, such as cricket tournament schedules, which could impact user metrics and revenue.
Revenue Growth Outlook: The company has revised its 2025 outlook, expecting local currency growth for total revenue between 13% to 15% year-on-year.
EBITDA Growth Outlook: The company anticipates EBITDA growth between 14% to 16% for 2025.
Capital Intensity Guidance: Capital intensity, excluding Ukraine, is expected to remain in the 17% to 19% range for 2025.
Inflation Monitoring: The company is monitoring inflation closely, which has inched up in some markets, with a blended weighted average inflation rate of 8.2% used for guidance.
Digital Revenue Growth: Direct digital revenues grew by 57% year-on-year in dollar terms and now contribute 16.5% of total group revenues. The company is accelerating the integration of AI-powered features across platforms.
Market-Specific Trends: In Bangladesh, a gradual recovery in consumer sentiment is underway, with total revenues growing 5.1% quarter-on-quarter. Ukraine's Kyivstar revenues grew 25.9% year-on-year, with EBITDA up 23.6%.
Strategic Transactions Impact: Upcoming transactions, including the Kyivstar NASDAQ listing and Kyrgyzstan operations sale, are expected to result in a noncash charge of $150 million to $200 million in Q3, with a positive net equity impact.
Share Buyback Program: We completed the third and final phase of our $100 million share buyback program that we have announced in August last year. We have bought back close to 3% of our shares in less than a year since we announced the buyback program.
The earnings call summary presents a mixed but generally positive outlook. Despite a Q3 EPS loss due to noncash charges, the company shows strong revenue growth, improved leverage, and significant digital revenue expansion. The Q&A section highlights strategic asset management and growth plans, particularly in fintech and digital services. Positive market reaction is likely due to increased guidance, strong cash flow, and strategic expansions, offsetting the EPS loss. The market cap suggests a moderate reaction, leading to a positive stock price movement prediction of 2% to 8%.
The earnings call highlights strong revenue growth, strategic partnerships, and a robust digital expansion plan. The Q&A session revealed positive analyst sentiment towards 4G and AI strategies, despite some uncertainties in valuation strategies. The company's solid financial metrics, optimistic guidance, and shareholder return plans, along with strategic partnerships, are likely to positively influence the stock price. Given the market cap, a positive reaction is expected within the 2% to 8% range over the next two weeks.
The earnings call indicates strong financial performance with substantial revenue and EBITDA growth, an ongoing share buyback program, and strategic initiatives like the Kyivstar listing. Despite some concerns in Kazakhstan and cybersecurity impacts, optimistic guidance and a strong cash position are positive indicators. The market cap suggests moderate volatility, so the stock is likely to see a positive movement of 2% to 8%.
The earnings call summary shows strong financial performance with revenue and EBITDA growth, an increased EBITDA margin, and a strong cash position. The strategic partnership in Pakistan and the ongoing share buyback program add positive momentum. Despite regulatory and supply chain risks, optimistic guidance and digital revenue growth are favorable. The market cap suggests moderate sensitivity to these factors, leading to a predicted positive stock price movement in the next two weeks.
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