UMBF Earnings Prediction
The chart below shows how UMBF performed 10 days before and after its earnings report, based on data from the past quarters. Typically, UMBF sees a -2.67% change in stock price 10 days leading up to the earnings, and a +2.38% change 10 days following the report. On the earnings day itself, the stock moves by -0.58%. This data can give you a slight idea of what to expect for the next quarter's release.
UMBF Key Earning Data
2024/Q4
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Gross Margin
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UMBF Earnings Analysis
UMB Financial Corp Corporation (UMBF.O) Earnings Conference Call
Positive
Customer Deposit Growth: 6% linked quarter annualized increase in customer deposits, demonstrating strong deposit franchise value.
Record Annual Operating Income: Record-setting annual operating income of $461.7 million and net interest income surpassing $1 billion for 2024.
Loan Balance Growth: 14.8% linked quarter annualized increase in average loan balances, with record top line production of $1.6 billion.
Deposit Growth Performance: Average total deposits grew by $2.7 billion or nearly 31% on a linked quarter annualized basis, significantly outperforming peers.
CET1 Ratio Improvement: CET1 ratio increased to 11.29%, reflecting strong capital levels and a conservative credit mark on Heartland's loans.
Negative
Non-Performing Loans Surge: Heartland's preemptive resolution of non-core loans and bonds led to lower loan balances and higher net charge-offs, resulting in a significant increase in non-performing loans during Q4.
Rising Operational Costs: Non-interest expense increased by $15.8 million linked quarter, primarily due to a $15.4 million rise in salary and bonus expenses, indicating higher operational costs amidst integration efforts.
Effective Tax Rate Increase: The effective tax rate rose to 18.5% for Q4 2024, up from 17% in 2023, driven by a smaller portion of income from tax-exempt municipal securities and higher non-deductible acquisition costs.
Loan Balance Decline Impact: Heartland's loan balances decreased significantly, contributing to a projected drag on overall loan growth for UMB in 2025, contrary to initial expectations of growth from the acquisition.
Acquisition Cost Savings Concerns: The anticipated cost savings from the Heartland acquisition may not materialize as quickly as expected, with only 40% of targeted savings expected in the first year, potentially impacting overall profitability.
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UMBF Earning Call Sentiment
Earnings call transcript: UMB Financial Q4 2024 beats expectations
UMBF.O
-2.77%Positive
The earnings call reveals strong financial performance with significant increases in net interest income, loan balances, and deposits. The acquisition of Heartland Financial is progressing well, with positive expectations for integration and cost savings. Despite some vague responses in the Q&A, the overall sentiment is optimistic, supported by strong credit quality and a favorable net interest margin outlook. The market cap suggests moderate sensitivity to news, leading to an expected stock price increase of 2% to 8%.
