AT&T Inc. (T) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript
Access earnings results, analyst expectations, report, slides, earnings call, and transcript.
Overview
The earnings call summary highlights strong strategic initiatives, including fiber expansion and spectrum deployment, which are likely to drive future growth. The Q&A section supports this with positive management responses on growth drivers and cost-saving measures. Despite some slowdown in Consumer Wireline growth, overall guidance is optimistic with expected revenue and EBITDA growth. The strategic acquisition plans and focus on competitive pricing further enhance the positive outlook. Although some concerns were raised, they were addressed with strategic responses, resulting in a positive sentiment for the stock's performance.
Key Financial Performance
Postpaid phone net adds Over 1.5 million postpaid phone net adds for the fifth consecutive year. This growth is attributed to the company's strategy of sustainable investment-led business model and focus on advanced connectivity.
AT&T Fiber net adds Over 1 million AT&T Fiber net adds for the eighth consecutive year. This growth is driven by the company's investments in fiber expansion and customer-centric strategies.
AT&T Internet Air net adds 875,000 net adds, more than doubling the customer base from the beginning of the year. This growth reflects the company's focus on expanding advanced connectivity services.
Shareholder returns Over $12 billion returned to shareholders through dividends and buybacks, representing more than a 50% increase from 2024. This increase is due to improved financial flexibility and confidence in the investment thesis.
Fiber convergence rate Climbed 200 basis points year-over-year to 42%, marking the fastest annual increase since tracking began. This improvement is attributed to the success of the company's fiber and 5G convergence strategy.
Adjusted EBITDA growth Over 4% growth in consolidated adjusted EBITDA during the fourth quarter, with adjusted EBITDA margins expanding by 20 basis points. This growth is driven by gains in 5G, fiber, and fixed wireless service revenues, as well as cost reductions.
Adjusted EPS Grew by over 20% in the fourth quarter to $0.52 and nearly 9% for the year to $2.12. The growth was driven by a lower-than-expected effective tax rate and solid growth in adjusted EBITDA.
Free cash flow $16.6 billion for the full year, growing by over $1 billion and coming in towards the higher end of the 2025 guidance. This growth was supported by lower cash taxes and solid operational performance.
Cost savings Achieved over $1 billion of cost savings in 2025. These savings were driven by leveraging AI, moving customer transactions to digital, and simplifying business processes.
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Operating Highlights
5G and Fiber Subscriber Growth: Reported over 1.5 million postpaid phone net adds for the fifth consecutive year and over 1 million AT&T Fiber net adds for the eighth consecutive year.
AT&T Internet Air: Achieved 875,000 net adds, doubling the customer base from the start of the year.
Spectrum and Fiber Asset Acquisitions: Agreements to acquire spectrum licenses from EchoStar and fiber assets from Lumen, expected to close early this year.
Fiber Expansion: Plan to expand fiber reach to over 40 million customer locations by the end of 2026, up from 32 million at the end of 2025.
Cost Savings: Achieved over $1 billion in cost savings in 2025 and plan to achieve an additional $4 billion annual cost savings by the end of 2028.
Capital Allocation: Returned over $12 billion to shareholders through dividends and buybacks in 2025, a 50% increase from 2024.
Convergence Strategy: Increased fiber convergence rate by 200 basis points year-over-year to 42%, with converged customers showing lower churn and higher value.
Legacy Services Discontinuation: Stopped sales of legacy copper-based services in 85% of wire centers and plan to discontinue these services in the majority of the footprint by 2029.
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Risk or Challenges
Inflationary Environment: The average deployment cost per fiber passing has increased by approximately 2% annually over the past 2 years, and a similar trend is expected over the next 3 years, which could impact cost efficiency.
Regulatory Approvals: The FCC has approved applications to discontinue copper-based services in more than 30% of wire centers by the end of 2026, but delays or challenges in regulatory approvals could hinder the transition to modernized infrastructure.
Competitive Market Pressures: The company operates in a highly competitive marketplace, which could impact its ability to maintain pricing discipline and market share, especially in areas where it does not offer fiber services.
Integration of Acquired Assets: The integration of acquired fiber assets from Lumen and spectrum licenses from EchoStar involves upfront investments and operational challenges, which could delay expected benefits and synergies.
Legacy Operations: The company is managing the decline of its copper-based legacy services, which still represent a portion of its operations. The transition to advanced connectivity could face execution risks.
Customer Acquisition Costs: Elevated levels of new and existing customers eligible for device offers could impact the calculation of ARPU and overall profitability.
Debt Levels: Net debt-to-adjusted EBITDA is expected to increase to approximately 3.2x following acquisitions, which could limit financial flexibility and increase interest expenses.
Economic Uncertainty: Economic conditions could impact customer spending behavior, particularly among value-conscious consumers, affecting revenue growth.
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Guidance & Outlook
Fiber Expansion: AT&T plans to increase its annual fiber construction pace from 3 million new locations in 2025 to a run rate of 4 million by the end of 2026. By the end of 2026, the company expects to reach over 40 million customer locations with fiber services, up from 32 million at the end of 2025. Beyond 2026, AT&T aims to expand its fiber reach by approximately 5 million locations annually through the end of the decade.
5G and Fixed Wireless Internet: AT&T plans to expand its advanced Internet services over fixed wireless in areas not reached by fiber. The company expects to offer advanced Internet services over fiber or 5G to over 90 million customer locations across the country.
Cost Efficiency and AI Integration: AT&T plans to achieve $4 billion in annual cost savings by the end of 2028 through operational efficiencies, AI integration, and digital customer transactions.
Capital Investments and Intensity: AT&T expects its major capital projects to be substantially completed by 2030, with capital intensity declining from high-teens percent of revenue to mid-teens, driving higher long-term cash flow.
Financial Projections (2026-2028): AT&T projects adjusted EBITDA growth of 3%-4% in 2026, improving to 5% or better in 2028. Adjusted EPS is expected to grow at a double-digit CAGR through 2028, with free cash flow reaching $18 billion plus in 2026 and growing by $1 billion in 2027 and $2 billion in 2028.
Shareholder Returns: AT&T plans to return $45 billion plus to shareholders from 2026 to 2028 through dividends and share repurchases, representing nearly 30% of its market cap and over 75% of expected free cash flow.
Segment Reporting Changes: Starting in 2026, AT&T will report its Advanced Connectivity segment (5G and fiber services) separately from its Legacy segment (copper-based services) to provide greater transparency into growth investments.
Legacy Services Transition: AT&T aims to discontinue legacy copper-based services in the majority of its footprint by the end of 2029, with 85% of wire centers already stopping sales of these services.
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Shareholder Return Plan
Dividend Returns: AT&T returned over $8 billion to shareholders through dividends in 2025. The company plans to maintain its current common stock dividend through 2028.
Share Repurchase Program: AT&T commenced a share repurchase program in 2025, returning over $4 billion to shareholders through buybacks. The company plans to execute approximately $8 billion of buybacks in 2026 and return $45 billion plus to shareholders through dividends and buybacks from 2026 to 2028.
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Key Q&A
Q:Where do you expect the fiber convergence rate to get to over time, and do you expect the rate of penetration to continue improving?
A:John Stankey expects the convergence rate to continue improving, with a target of 50% in the near term and potentially reaching 70-80% over the long haul. He believes the industry is undergoing a structural realignment towards consolidated services, which will drive this improvement.
Q:Can AT&T play catch-up in the Lumen territory and achieve similar penetration rates?
A:John Stankey stated that AT&T has been conservative in its business case expectations for out-of-region footprints like Lumen. However, early performance in these areas has been promising, and there is potential upside if penetration rates match those within AT&T's current footprint.
Q:What are the drivers behind the slowdown in Consumer Wireline revenue growth, and how do you expect this to progress?
A:John Stankey attributed the slowdown to strategic pricing adjustments and discounting to bundle more customers, which impacts ARPU growth initially but reduces churn over time. Pascal Desroches added that pricing adjustments made in late 2025 will have a full-year effect in 2026, and advanced home internet growth is expected to exceed 30% with the inclusion of Lumen territories.
Q:Is AT&T reserving capacity for meaningful spectrum investments, and what is the view on spectrum needs?
A:John Stankey confirmed that AT&T has reserved capacity for strategic spectrum investments. He believes the industry is moving towards more targeted spectrum acquisitions rather than a broad rush for the same bands, and AT&T's fiber investments provide flexibility in managing spectrum needs.
Q:What is AT&T's perspective on the potential impact of a foldable iPhone on consumer demand and upgrade rates?
A:John Stankey noted that foldable devices already exist in the market and have a predictable adoption rate among specific user bases. He does not expect a foldable iPhone to significantly change consumer demand or upgrade rates, as it is unlikely to become a broadly applicable form factor.
Q:How is AT&T approaching fiber ARPU and pricing for existing subscribers compared to competitors like Comcast and Charter?
A:John Stankey emphasized that AT&T is priced lower than competitors and offers a superior product. The company has more flexibility in managing ARPU and promotions, and its strategy focuses on growing its fiber footprint and leveraging its competitive advantages.
Q:What is the outlook for Fixed Wireless Access (FWA) growth as the DSL base declines?
A:John Stankey stated that the DSL base is expected to phase out, and FWA will serve as a bridge product in some areas before fiber deployment. He does not foresee a supply-demand problem in high-capacity broadband, as AT&T's superior product will allow it to capture market share.
Q:What macro factors could influence postpaid phone growth for AT&T in 2026, and how is the company responding to competitive promotions?
A:Jeffery McElfresh acknowledged the maturity of the wireless industry but highlighted growth opportunities in underpenetrated segments like value-conscious customers and small businesses. AT&T's convergence strategy is driving growth, and the company remains disciplined in its promotional activities.
Q:Does AT&T's year-end leverage target assume cash inflows from the Lumen JV, and what is the expected shape of the fiber build pace?
A:Pascal Desroches confirmed that the leverage target includes proceeds from an equity partner in the Lumen JV. John Stankey noted that fiber build pace will ramp up over the year, with seasonality and operational adjustments impacting net additions.
Q:What are the key drivers for AT&T's EBITDA growth inflection to 5%+ in 2028?
A:Pascal Desroches identified moderating integration costs, increasing penetration of acquired assets, and reduced legacy footprint contributions as key drivers for EBITDA growth. Cost savings from digital and AI initiatives will also contribute.
Q:What is driving the strong Mobility service margins, and what cost initiatives are in place?
A:Pascal Desroches attributed strong margins to effective cost management and productivity gains from digital and AI initiatives. AT&T expects to save over $4 billion in costs over the next three years.
Q:What is AT&T's approach to national advertising for its converged offerings, and how does it differentiate between fiber and FWA?
A:John Stankey explained that AT&T focuses on a broad national message to build awareness as a capable internet provider, supplemented by targeted digital marketing for specific customer segments and geographies.
Q:What is the outlook for bad debt and cost reductions over the next few years?
A:Pascal Desroches stated that bad debt increases are due to higher equipment sales and service revenues, not changes in consumer payment patterns. Cost reductions of over $4 billion are expected through legacy decommissioning, digital initiatives, and AI-driven productivity gains.
Q:Review of Unclear Management Responses
A:Management avoided providing specific details on the expected terminal penetration rates in the Lumen territory, the exact impact of foldable iPhones on the competitive environment, and the precise timeline for achieving cost reductions and operational efficiencies in the Lumen footprint.
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Earnings Word Cloud
The most frequently occurring keywords in this quarter's earning call
ARPU
ATT Fiber
Advanced Connectivity
EchoStar
Internet service
Legacy
Lumen fiber
area fiber
asset Lumen
availability
buyback
capital return
cash tax
connectivity service
convergence
copper service
cost saving
customer relationship
deployment
dividend
end cash
end decade
fiber asset
fiber service
home Internet
investment fiber
location
outlook capital
pace fiber
penetration
pension
service category
service revenue
share repurchase
success
term outlook
transaction
year investment
T Transcript
AT&T Inc. (T) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript
Positive1-28
The earnings call summary highlights strong strategic initiatives, including fiber expansion and spectrum deployment, which are likely to drive future growth. The Q&A section supports this with positive management responses on growth drivers and cost-saving measures. Despite some slowdown in Consumer Wireline growth, overall guidance is optimistic with expected revenue and EBITDA growth. The strategic acquisition plans and focus on competitive pricing further enhance the positive outlook. Although some concerns were raised, they were addressed with strategic responses, resulting in a positive sentiment for the stock's performance.
AT&T Inc. (T) Presents at UBS Global Media and Communications Conference 2025 Transcript
Neutral12-9
AT&T Inc. (T) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript
Positive10-22
The earnings call reveals strong financial performance with growth in consumer wireline and fiber revenues, improved EBITDA margins, and a reduction in net debt. The Q&A section indicates confidence in strategic initiatives and competitive positioning. While there are concerns about business wireline declines and vague management responses on leadership, the overall sentiment is positive, especially with increased guidance and share repurchase plans. The market is likely to react positively, expecting a stock price increase of 2% to 8% over the next two weeks.
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Neutral9-9
T Report
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