SOBO Overview

Jefferies Upgrade: South Bow (SOBO) shares rose 1.9% after Jefferies upgraded the company to Buy from Hold, increasing the price target to C$45, citing confidence in the company's growth plan following discussions with management.

Growth Strategy: The company aims to triple its size by increasing barrel collection in Alberta and enhancing its pipeline to Cushing, with a focus on maximizing tolls and leveraging existing corridors.

Value Proposition: SOBO's direct route to the U.S. Gulf Coast is seen as a strong asset, potentially aiding in recontracting Keystone and supporting upstream growth through a recent memorandum of understanding.

Investment Outlook: Analyst Sam Burwell notes that SOBO shares currently reflect little growth potential, while offering a solid baseline with a 7%-plus dividend yield and over 10% total return, even if significant growth does not occur.

Market Performance: The Dow and S&P 500 experienced declines of over 1%, primarily due to a 2% drop in Nvidia amid growing uncertainty in the AI sector.

Corporate Earnings and Investments: Home Depot reported its earnings, while Target is set to release its results soon. Berkshire Hathaway announced a $4.3 billion investment in Alphabet, boosting its shares by over 3%.

Economic Indicators: The release of the Fed minutes from the October meeting is anticipated, with current rate-cut odds at 45%, a significant drop from 95% a month prior.

Milestones: MP Materials celebrated its 5-year listing anniversary, and South Bow highlighted its commitment to long-term growth and value creation.

Dividend Declaration: South Bow Corporation (SOBO) has declared a quarterly dividend of $0.50 per share, consistent with previous dividends, with a forward yield of 7.66%.

Payment Details: The dividend is payable on January 15 for shareholders of record as of December 31, with the ex-dividend date also set for December 31.

Mixed Q3 Results: South Bow reported mixed results for Q3 and has initiated its fiscal year 2026 outlook while updating its fiscal year 2025 projections.

Analyst Downgrade: J.P. Morgan has downgraded South Bow to a Sell equivalent due to a muted EBITDA growth profile, and Seeking Alpha has provided a Quant Rating for the company.

Q3 Financial Performance: South Bow Corporation reported a Q3 GAAP EPS of $0.47, exceeding expectations by $0.08, while revenue fell to $461 million, missing estimates by $37 million.

Pipeline Throughput: The company recorded an average throughput of approximately 584,000 barrels per day on the Keystone Pipeline and 703,000 bbl/d on the U.S. Gulf Coast segment during Q3 2025.

Distributable Cash Flow: Distributable cash flow increased to $236 million, up $69 million from the previous quarter, attributed to changes in U.S. tax legislation and tax optimization efforts.

Updated Guidance: South Bow updated its 2025 and 2026 annual guidance, maintaining normalized EBITDA expectations while adjusting effective tax rates and capital expenditures.

Earnings Growth: South Bow Corporation reported third-quarter earnings of $96 million, or $0.46 per share, an increase from $61 million, or $0.29 per share, in the previous year.

Adjusted Earnings: Excluding certain items, the company reported adjusted earnings of $87 million, or $0.42 per share, for the quarter.

Revenue Decline: The company's revenue decreased by 1.9% to $524 million, down from $534 million in the same period last year.

Earnings Summary: Key figures include earnings of $96 million, EPS of $0.46, and revenue of $524 million compared to last year's $61 million, $0.29 EPS, and $534 million in revenue.

Keystone Pipeline Consideration: The Canadian government is exploring the possibility of restarting the Keystone Pipeline as part of negotiations to ease U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum, according to Canada's energy minister Tim Hodgson.

Impact on Energy Security: Hodgson emphasized that increasing U.S. access to Canadian oil sands could enhance continental energy security, despite the Keystone XL project being previously canceled due to environmental concerns.