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01/10 16:34
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Access earnings results, analyst expectations, report, slides, earnings call, and transcript.
The earnings call presents strong financial performance with significant revenue and EBITDA growth, especially ex-US. Positive sentiment is reinforced by increased dividends and optimistic guidance. However, regulatory and competitive risks, along with unclear responses on acquisitions and tax impacts, temper enthusiasm. Overall, the positive aspects, including a special cash dividend and strong growth figures, outweigh the negatives, suggesting a moderate stock price increase.
Total Revenue (ex US) Q4 2024 €487 million, growing 38% year-over-year.
Adjusted EBITDA (ex US) Q4 2024 €129 million, growing 152% year-over-year, with a margin of 26%.
Total Revenue (ex US) Full Year 2024 €1.66 billion, growing 18% year-over-year.
Adjusted EBITDA (ex US) Full Year 2024 €391 million, growing 53% year-over-year, with a margin of 24%.
Total Revenue (US) Q4 2024 €14 million, growing 64% year-over-year.
Total Investment (US) Q4 2024 €11 million, with a full year spend of €61 million.
Unrestricted Cash €356 million, with no debt.
Special Cash Dividend $0.15 per share, totaling over $125 million paid to shareholders.
Total Dividend for the Year $0.25 per share, well above the minimum annual target of $0.10 per share.
Total Revenue Ex US 2024: Total revenue ex the US was an all-time high for a full year growing 18% year-over-year to €1.66 billion.
Adjusted EBITDA Ex US 2024: Adjusted EBITDA ex the US was also a full year record growing 53% year-over-year to €391 million, a margin of 24%.
Total Revenue Q4 2024: Total revenue ex the US was another all-time high growing 38% year-over-year to €487 million.
Adjusted EBITDA Q4 2024: Adjusted EBITDA ex the US also set a quarterly record growing 152% year-over-year to €129 million, a margin of 26%.
US Revenue Q4 2024: Q4 was our best ever US revenue quarter, growing by 64% year-over-year to €14 million.
Total Investment Q4 2024: The total investment for the quarter was €11 million, taking our full year spend to €61 million.
Dividend Announcement: In December, we announced a special cash dividend of $0.15 per share, taking our total dividend for the year to $0.25 per share.
Increased Dividend Target: We secured Board approval to increase our minimum quarterly dividend target to $0.04 per share, up from $0.025.
2025 Revenue Guidance Ex US: For the ex US business, we expect 2025 total revenue to grow above 10% year-over-year to at least €1.830 billion.
2025 US Revenue Guidance: In the US, we expect total revenue of around €85 million.
Operational Efficiencies: We achieved operational efficiencies while delivering meaningful shareholder returns.
Investment Focus: We remain focused on finding a path to profitability with reduced investment in the US.
iGaming Strategy: We transitioned to an iGaming-only strategy, seeing new highs in Q4.
Market Positioning: Super Group is well positioned as a major profitable player in the world of online gaming and sports betting.
Regulatory Issues: Super Group operates in a highly regulated industry, which poses risks related to compliance with various laws and regulations that can impact operations and profitability.
Competitive Pressures: The online gaming and sports betting market is highly competitive, with numerous players vying for market share, which could affect Super Group's growth and profitability.
Supply Chain Challenges: Potential disruptions in the supply chain for technology and services necessary for online gaming could impact operational efficiency and service delivery.
Economic Factors: Economic downturns or changes in consumer spending habits could adversely affect revenue generation in the gaming sector.
Investment Risks: The company has made significant investments in the US market, which is still developing, and there is a risk that these investments may not yield the expected returns.
Global Footprint Refinement: Super Group refined its global footprint and increased focus on key growth markets.
Product and Technology Enhancement: The company fine-tuned its product and technology to improve efficiency.
Operational Efficiency: Realized operational and marketing efficiencies to enhance profitability.
Investment in Revenue Growth: Continued investment in revenue growth while maintaining a leaner cost base.
iGaming Strategy: Transitioned to an iGaming-only strategy in the US, leading to improved performance.
2025 Revenue Guidance (ex US): Expected to grow above 10% year-over-year to at least €1.830 billion.
2025 Adjusted EBITDA Guidance (ex US): Expected to grow to greater than €435 million, maintaining a margin of 24%.
2025 US Revenue Guidance: Expected total revenue of around €85 million.
2025 US Investment Guidance: Total investment expected to reduce to between €30 million and €35 million.
Combined Revenue Guidance: Total revenue expected to exceed €1.9 billion with adjusted EBITDA of at least €400 million.
Dividend Increase: Minimum quarterly dividend target increased to $0.04 per share from $0.025.
Special Cash Dividend: $0.15 per share, totaling over $125 million paid to shareholders.
Total Dividend for the Year: $0.25 per share, exceeding the minimum annual target of $0.10 per share.
Minimum Quarterly Dividend Target: Increased to $0.04 per share from $0.025, with the first payment in March.
Total Investment for Q4: €11 million, with a full year spend of €61 million.
The earnings call summary and Q&A reflect a positive outlook with raised guidance, sustainable margins, and strategic market expansions. Despite the exit from the U.S. market, the company is making significant investments in technology and new product launches, which are expected to drive growth. The raised EBITDA guidance and strong market-specific strategies, such as in Africa and Spain, further support a positive sentiment. The market cap suggests a moderate reaction, leading to a 'Positive' prediction of 2% to 8% stock price increase.
The earnings call reveals strong financial performance with a 15% YoY revenue increase and a robust balance sheet with $393 million in cash and no debt. Management's strategic exit from the U.S. market is aimed at reallocating resources to more profitable regions, with expected cost savings. The company's marketing strategy and product innovations are driving growth. Despite concerns about lower H2 guidance, management attributes this to a disciplined forecasting approach. The market cap suggests moderate volatility, and overall, the positive financial health and strategic focus are likely to result in a 2% to 8% stock price increase.
The earnings call indicates strong financial performance with a 25% revenue increase and a 120% rise in adjusted EBITDA. The company is maintaining revenue guidance above $2 billion, and has increased dividends, signaling confidence. Despite some regulatory and competitive challenges, optimistic guidance and strategic expansion plans, including the U.S. iGaming market and potential Canadian market entry, contribute to a positive sentiment. The market cap suggests moderate sensitivity, leading to a predicted positive stock price movement of 2% to 8% over the next two weeks.
The earnings call presents strong financial performance with significant revenue and EBITDA growth, especially ex-US. Positive sentiment is reinforced by increased dividends and optimistic guidance. However, regulatory and competitive risks, along with unclear responses on acquisitions and tax impacts, temper enthusiasm. Overall, the positive aspects, including a special cash dividend and strong growth figures, outweigh the negatives, suggesting a moderate stock price increase.
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