RYAM Earnings Prediction
The chart below shows how RYAM performed 10 days before and after its earnings report, based on data from the past quarters. Typically, RYAM sees a -1.32% change in stock price 10 days leading up to the earnings, and a +5.53% change 10 days following the report. On the earnings day itself, the stock moves by +0.38%. This data can give you a slight idea of what to expect for the next quarter's release.
RYAM Key Earning Data
RYAM Earnings Analysis
Positive
Revenue and Income Increase: Revenue for 2024 was $1.63 billion, with operating income improving to $39 million, an increase of $104 million over the prior year.
Adjusted EBITDA Surge: Adjusted EBITDA reached $222 million, marking an $83 million or 60% year-over-year increase, driven by strong cellulose specialty pricing and volumes.
EBITDA Margin Expansion: EBITDA margins expanded to 13.6% from 8.5%.
Adjusted Free Cash Flow Increase: Adjusted free cash flow stood at $128 million, an improvement of $75 million or 142% from 2023.
Debt Reduction and Leverage Improvement: Net secured debt decreased by $73 million, and the net secured leverage ratio improved to 2.7 times covenant EBITDA.
EBITDA Growth Driver: High purity cellulose was a primary driver of EBITDA growth, delivering a $93 million or 65% increase year-over-year.
Commodity Exposure Reduction: The company successfully reduced exposure to non-fluff HPC commodities from 50% in 2023 to just 6% in 2024.
Cost Efficiency Investment: In 2024, the company invested $10 million in strategic capital into cost efficiency projects, projected to generate $10 million in EBITDA in 2025.
Biomaterials Business Expansion: The company is committed to advancing its biomaterials business, with expected EBITDA of $8 million to $10 million in 2025 from key initiatives.
Price Increase Strategy: The company anticipates mid-single-digit percentage price increases in cellulose specialties, driven by a value-over-volume strategy.
Negative
Revenue Decline Analysis: Revenue for 2024 declined by $13 million compared to 2023, indicating a slight downturn in overall sales performance.
Paperboard EBITDA Decline: Despite improved operating income, the company faced challenges with paperboard EBITDA declining by $4 million due to lower sales prices and higher labor costs.
Pulp Sales Decline: High yield pulp sales also saw a decline of $9 million, primarily due to a 9% drop in external sales prices, reflecting oversupply in China and lower demand.
EBITDA Guidance Challenges: The absence of certain one-time net benefits of approximately $15 million that were realized in 2024 will present headwinds for 2025 EBITDA guidance.
Rising Corporate Expenses: Corporate expenses increased by $2 million, driven by higher variable compensation and other costs, which could impact overall profitability.
Tariff Impact on EBITDA: The company anticipates a significant impact from a 25% tariff on US paperboard sales, which could lead to an annualized EBITDA impact of $42 million and $35 million in 2025.
Projected Cash Flow Constraints: Adjusted free cash flow for 2025 is projected to be in the range of $25 million to $45 million, indicating potential cash flow constraints compared to previous years.
Rising Maintenance Expenditures: The company expects maintenance capital expenditures to rise to $85 million in 2025, reflecting planned maintenance outages across all facilities, which could strain financial resources.
RYAM FAQs
How does RYAM typically perform around its earnings report dates?
RYAM's stock performance around earnings reports can vary, but historical data shows specific patterns, such as a -1.32% change leading up to the report and a +5.54% change in the 10 days following the release.
Is Rayonier Advanced Materials Inc (RYAM) Q4 2024 Earnings Call Summary positive or negative?
How can historical earnings data help predict future stock performance?
RYAM Earning Call Sentiment
Rayonier Advanced Materials Inc. (NYSE:RYAM) Q4 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

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