OLN Earnings Prediction
The chart below shows how OLN performed 10 days before and after its earnings report, based on data from the past quarters. Typically, OLN sees a +1.46% change in stock price 10 days leading up to the earnings, and a -1.71% change 10 days following the report. On the earnings day itself, the stock moves by +0.99%. This data can give you a slight idea of what to expect for the next quarter's release.
OLN Key Earning Data
2024/Q4
Year Over Year
Quarter Over Quarter
Total Revenue
1.67B
3.51%
5.15%
Gross Margin
9.45%
-17.18%
6.06%
Operating Margin
2.80%
-53.49%
45.08%
Net Margin
0.60%
-80.13%
-137.74%
EPS
0.09
-79.07%
-142.86%
No Data Available
OLN Earnings Analysis
Olin Corp Corporation (OLN.N) Earnings Conference Call
Positive
Sales Growth and Pricing Improvement: CAPV sales increased by 9% sequentially, driven by higher volume and improved pricing, with final Hurricane Barrel spending coming in approximately $8 million below expectations.
Strong EBITDA Growth: Fourth quarter epoxy adjusted EBITDA rose by more than 50% sequentially, largely due to the absence of hurricane barrel impacts, indicating strong operational performance.
Accretive Acquisition Benefits: Winchester's acquisition of Ammo Inc. assets is expected to be immediately accretive to adjusted EBITDA, with anticipated synergy benefits of $40 million within three years post-integration.
Shareholder Value Commitment: Olin returned approximately 78% of operating cash flow to shareholders in 2024 through dividends and share repurchases, demonstrating a strong commitment to shareholder value.
Increased Liquidity Capacity: The refinancing of the accounts receivable securitization facility increased capacity from $425 million to $500 million, enhancing liquidity and financial flexibility.
Negative
Epoxy Demand Impact: Seasonally lower demand in epoxy negatively impacted Q4 results, with sales remaining flat sequentially despite improved pricing.
Sales Performance Analysis: Winchester sales were flat sequentially, as lower commercial ammunition sales offset growth in military demand, indicating ongoing weakness in the commercial sector.
Increased Financial Leverage Concerns: Net debt increased by approximately $167 million from year-end 2023, raising concerns about financial leverage amid a challenging market environment.
EBITDA Decline Forecast: Q1 2025 adjusted EBITDA is expected to decline to a range of $150 million to $170 million, reflecting continued customer destocking and lower consumer demand in the Winchester commercial business.
Increased Cash Tax Burden: The company anticipates higher cash taxes in 2025, including an $80 million deferred international tax payment, which could strain cash flow and limit financial flexibility.
OLN FAQs
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OLN Earning Call Sentiment
Earnings call transcript: Olin Corp Q4 2024 beats EPS forecast, stock dips
OLN.N
-2.54%Positive
The earnings call presents a mixed outlook. Strong points include increased EBITDA guidance, improved pricing momentum, and significant share repurchases, which are positive indicators. However, concerns arise from increased net debt, uncertainty in market demand, and unclear management responses on future growth and specific earnings contributors. The Q&A session highlighted some uncertainties, particularly in chlor alkali and Winchester segments, and potential risks related to antidumping duties. With no significant positive catalysts or partnerships announced, the overall sentiment remains neutral.
