Should I Buy OGN? OGN 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Organon & Co (OGN) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

8.430

1 Day change

5.38%

52 Week Range

16.920

Analysis Updated At

2026/01/30

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Not a good buy right now. OGN is trading below the key pivot (9.09) with weakening momentum (MACD negative and expanding) and bearish options positioning (put volume dominating). With analysts skewed to Underweight and the company showing deteriorating profitability in 2025/Q3, the near-term risk/reward is unfavorable for an impatient buyer. I would avoid buying at the current pre-market level (~8.54–8.60) and treat the stock as a hold/avoid until price reclaims ~9.10 and sentiment improves. Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals - [AI Stock Picker](module://ai_stock_pick): No signal on given stock today. - [SwingMax](module://swingmax): No signal on given stock today.

Technical Analysis

Trend/momentum: Bearish-to-weak. MACD histogram is -0.0268 (below zero) and negatively expanding, indicating downside momentum is increasing rather than stabilizing. RSI: RSI_6 at 36.09 is approaching oversold but not yet at a strong reversal zone; this often means price can keep drifting lower before a clean bounce. Moving averages: Converging moving averages suggest consolidation after a decline, but without upside confirmation. Levels to watch: Pivot 9.09 is the key line in the sand; price below it favors sellers. Immediate support is S1 8.414 (very close to pre-market). If 8.41 breaks, next support is S2 7.996. Upside resistance levels are R1 9.766 and R2 10.184, which are likely tough to clear without a catalyst. Short-horizon pattern odds provided: Similar-pattern stats imply a negative drift (-2.55% next week, -5.37% next month), aligning with the current bearish momentum profile.

Options Data

Bearish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bearish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Positioning/sentiment: Bearish. Put open interest exceeds calls (OI PCR 1.23), and put volume is much heavier than call volume (volume PCR 2.53; 2,873 puts vs 1,134 calls), implying traders are leaning defensive or bearish.

Volatility: Implied vol (30D) ~60.76 with IV percentile 83.2 suggests options are pricing elevated uncertainty. That typically coincides with caution into events (earnings on 2026-02-12 pre-market) and can reflect downside hedging demand.

Flow context: Today’s total option volume (4,007) is ~70.6% of the 30-day average (not a blowout), but open interest is elevated vs average (today vs OI avg 30D ~120.81%), consistent with meaningful outstanding positioning rather than just a one-day spike.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

- Event/catalyst: Q4 and full-year 2025 earnings on 2026-02-12 (pre-market) could reset expectations if Nexplanon/respiratory headwinds prove manageable.
- Company update: Management expects no milestone expenses in Q4 2025 (modestly supportive for near-term expense optics).
- Portfolio action: Closed sale of the JADA® System with potential additional payment up to $25M based on 2026 revenue targets (strategic simplification and potential incremental cash).

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- Fundamental pressure: 2025/Q3 showed sharply weaker profitability (net income and EPS down ~55% YoY) and gross margin decline, which tends to keep valuation and sentiment compressed.
- Business headwinds cited by Street: Nexplanon U.S. policy headwinds and respiratory challenges (per post-earnings commentary reflected in analyst notes).
- Sentiment/positioning: Options market is put-skewed (bearish) with high IV percentile, indicating elevated perceived risk.
- Near-term technical risk: Price is sitting just above key support (8.414); a break risks a fast move toward ~8.00.

Financial Performance

Latest quarter provided: 2025/Q3. - Revenue: $1.602B, +1.26% YoY (low growth). - Profitability: Net income $160M, -55.43% YoY. - EPS: 0.61, -55.80% YoY. - Gross margin: 53.5%, down 8.30% YoY. Takeaway: The top line is only slightly positive, but margins and earnings are deteriorating materially—an unfavorable mix for a near-term buy, especially without a strong technical reversal signal.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent trend: Ratings/targets have skewed bearish and targets have been cut. - 2025-12-08: Barclays initiated Underweight, PT $7.50. - 2025-11-11: Morgan Stanley kept Equal Weight but cut PT to $9 from $10. - 2025-11-11: JPMorgan kept Underweight and cut PT to $12 from $14. Wall Street pros: Potential sector tailwinds (easing pricing headwinds, deleveraging theme) and any upside surprise at earnings could help. Wall Street cons: Underweight bias, guidance/estimate pressure tied to Nexplanon and respiratory, and profitability compression. Net: Street stance is cautious-to-bearish, not signaling a compelling buy right now. Influential/political trading: No recent congress trading data available. Hedge funds and insiders are reported as neutral with no significant recent trends.

5 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast OGN stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for OGN is 8.5 USD with a low forecast of 5 USD and a high forecast of 12 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

0 Buy

1 Hold

4 Sell

Strong Sell

Current: 8.000

Low

Averages

8.5

High

Current: 8.000

Low

Averages

8.5

High

Barclays

Underweight

initiated

$7.50

AI Analysis

2025-12-08

Reason

Barclays

Price Target

$7.50

AI Analysis

2025-12-08

initiated

Underweight

Reason

Barclays initiated coverage of Organon with an Underweight rating and $7.50 price target. The firm rolled out coverage on the specialty pharmaceuticals industry with a neutral view, saying investor sentiment is improving as companies shift focus to innovation, margin expansion and de-leveraging. The group's pricing headwinds are easing while debt leverage is coming down, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Barclays sees "plenty of opportunity" as the sector "remains in a transition phase."

Morgan Stanley

Terence Flynn

Equal Weight

downgrade

$10 -> $9

2025-11-11

Reason

Morgan Stanley

Terence Flynn

Price Target

$10 -> $9

2025-11-11

downgrade

Equal Weight

Reason

Morgan Stanley analyst Terence Flynn lowered the firm's price target on Organon to $9 from $10 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. The company, which announced that it had identified and ceased the improper sales practices that resulted in recent personnel changes and concluded that improper practices were limited to Nexplanon, lowered revenue guidance to $6.2B-$6.25B from $6.275B-$6.375B, predominantly driven by U.S. policy headwinds for Nexplanon and challenges in the respiratory business, the analyst tells investors.

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OGN Should I Buy

OGN Should I Buy

Should You Buy Organon & Co (OGN) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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